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If we dont fall apart right here, still lookin at this possibility....

 

Geebuz,

 

Looks like we're headin' right fer 7,440.......either it McQueen's (WNDYism) at or near that level or this thing is toast...

 

If we approach that level I thimk I will dong some calls and some puts (on what I'm not sure) to see if I can play it both ways.

___________________

 

In other news,

 

QLD looking worth a play at $26 and $24

 

big.chart?symb=qld&compidx=aaaaa:0&ma=0&maval=50,200&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=4&size=2&state=11&sid=2354542&style=320&time=6&freq=1&comp=NO_SYMBOL_CHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=4328&mocktick=1

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While Mr. Greenspan acknowledges that he could have done something to avert the housing crisis, he contends his hands were tied. ?If we tried to suppress the expansion of the subprime market, do you think that would have gone over very well with the Congress??

 

Story

Gee Alan, do you suppose there is a reason why it is the Executive Branch which appoints Supreme Court justices and the Fed Chairman and why they serve long/lifetime terms? Not only stupid, but a gutless politician as well.

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Shorty- I deleted your post about Current TV. I felt insulted.

 

For your information, this is typical of the kind of work Kaj does.

 

<object width="400" height="342">

<param name="movie" value="http://current.com/e/89716716/en_US"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><param name="allowfullscreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://current.com/e/89716716/en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="400" height="342" wmode="transparent" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always"></embed></object>

 

Good production values... Kaj did not make clear the difficulty in obtaining a class 3 weapons permit, which includes a complete FBI conducted background investigation. The average guy off the street cannot walk into a shop and buy a fully automatic anything, ever, and hasn't been able to do that for probably 60 years or more.

 

The gangbangers are getting their full auto toys from south of the border.

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Thank you K Wave

 

I actually favor that last option for the reason I see so many friends and co-workers that still want to drink the kool aid. The desire to believe this is all going to be ok is still strong. I actually had a co-worker tell me the solution was greater diversification in his 401k.

 

There is a perception that the 29 crash and depression was upon them in an instant and very little appreciation of the time it took for the entirety of the slide to manifest itself.

 

There's one more rally to confirm that belief before the sickening plunge imo.

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Greenspan finally admits to being clueless but blames credit ratings agencies

and Congress for world financial collapse.

 

 

Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, told Crapvision in a documentary to be shown Thursday night that he did not fully

understand the scope of the subprime mortgage market until well into 2005 and could not make sense of the complex derivative products created

out of mortgages.....While Mr. Greenspan acknowledges that he could have done something to avert the housing crisis, he contends his hands were

tied. ?If we tried to suppress the expansion of the subprime market, do you think that would have gone over very well with the Congress? Mr.

Greenspan said. ?When it looked as though we were dealing with a major increase in home ownership, which is of unquestioned value to this

society ? would we have been able to do that? I doubt it.?

 

Story

 

 

Could someone please hand that moran a mirror.

 

The credit rating agencies do deserve part of the blame. Everyone can see the blame that belongs to someone else, but usually not to themselves.

E.g. have you ever screwed up big time? Was it easy for you to admit it and face the consequences? What if you screwed something up for the entire

population of a country as big as the U.S.? Can you imagine facing them and admitting that? Not easy. It doesn't surprise me that most people are

wimps when it comes to doing this. The enormity of how badly Greeenspew has screwed up could be overwhelming for a person to face. And no

wonder those PIg Men at Davos wimped out too. They are used to being coddled by a privileged life, not used to facing difficult problems and admitting

where they are responsible.

 

There are a few folks who can face our economic problems realistically. Whenever they appear, we should be grateful, because they won't come along

often. Sounds like maybe the former Merrill CFO that TJ saw on TV, with his plan for the banking system, mentioned yesterday in IDS and in MTM, is one

of them. I've cut and pasted it here below.

 

The plan is only for the banking system, so maybe it could be combined with a housing system plan. I do think that in areas where housing is already at

reasonable prices (apparently mostly in the South and Midwest) something needs to be done to address the oversupply, and the possibility that thousands

of underwater homeowners will just walk away from their homes unless there is some intervention to prevent that, causing the prices to plummet quickly,

supply to multiply quickly, and the economy to deteriorate more rapidly.

 

-----------------------------------

QUOTE (Trader Joe @ Feb 12 2009, 05:16 PM)

Not true....that's the common "party line" to keep the sheeple in the dark and scared.....uh, like you! (See: World Collapse After Lehman Failure, oh, wait,

there wasn't one!!!) Incidentally, I have written derivative contracts, written ISDA agreements and traded derivatives from the corporate side, so I am very

very very familiar with CPR and unwinds.

 

In fact, CNBS just had one of the former CFO's (I think) from Merrill Lynch on that says he has a solution....for the 4 1/2 seconds that guy was allowed to

talk before Krudlow kept interupting him, it sounded pretty good....

 

The problem, as he states, is $1.9 trillion in mortgages and related derivatives.

 

Step [1] Peal off the mortgages, about $948 billion, give them a GSE guarantee and sell them, newly packaged into the market (I agree with this) prices

based on current and expected payment history. There will be a cost, in the billions, but not too bad considering the proposals thus far

 

Step [2] Collapse all the derivatives (the $1.0 trillion balance) that are written against these underlying securities, cost here too but the guy couldn't explain

cause Krudlow wouldn't shut up....but in essense the banks would have to take the hit

 

Step [3] Outlaw MBS derivatives going forward

 

Granted he was just talking about MBS, but that is where the problem is......the same construct holds for all derivative markets (i.e., credit cards, auto

loans, corporate debt, etc)

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Interesting piece especially since I agree with what he says. ;)

 

Well, he says the stimulus might not work at all. Or it might work too well, keeping the economy

dependent on it longer than necessary. Both possible. And more likely that it will be too little or

too much than exactly the right amount. But it's unrealistic to expect that the Stimulus will be

exactly the perfect amount. No matter who did it, it would be imperfect. That doesn't mean O's

administration is incompetent. It means it's human. No big deal, in my book. I agree that the

Dow could fall further due to the present administration being human rather than having a magic

wand that will solve everything by Tuesday.

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never before seen negative quarterly earnings on the s&p500, swenlin talking another 50% decline:

 

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotlite...90213_earn.html

 

50% here, 50% there and pretty soon we have some real bloody damage to portfilios... :mellow:

 

lets get a test of the november lows first and see, possible 30-40% technical rally after said test,

an undercut of the lows should produce a buyable washout

 

otoh bradley model doesn't have another major turn until mid-July, perhaps we just slowly grind down

with 5-10% reaction rallies until then

 

 

More on the same from Jesse ;)

 

14 February 2009

How Cheap Is the PE Ratio When Earnings Are Negative?

 

 

First the reform of the financial system, and then the stimulus can find a footing.

 

Until then we are pouring money into a Wall Street sinkhole of corruption.

 

Market Watch

S&P heads to first quarter ever of negative earnings

By Kate Gibson

4:29 p.m. EST Feb. 13, 2009

 

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- As Wall Street tracks Washington's moves to help the beleaguered banking sector and push through a massive economic stimulus, nearly 400 of the S&P's 500 companies have weighed in and reported a collective loss, even excluding the financials.

 

"This is the worst; after the sixth quarter of negative growth, it will be the first quarter ever of negative earnings," said Howard Silverblatt, senior index anal cyst, at Standard & Poor's.

 

jesse

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Well, he says the stimulus might not work at all. Or it might work too well, keeping the economy

dependent on it longer than necessary. Both possible. And more likely that it will be too little or

too much than exactly the right amount. But it's unrealistic to expect that the Stimulus will be

exactly the perfect amount. No matter who did it, it would be imperfect. That doesn't mean O's

administration is incompetent. It means it's human. No big deal, in my book. I agree that the

Dow could fall further due to the present administration being human rather than having a magic

wand that will solve everything by Tuesday.

 

In my view, the stimulus package is an unmitigated disaster. If I'm right, you will know why within the next 90 days.

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"When official America talks of 'bipartisan compromise,' it usually means the people are about to get screwed." :rolleyes:

 

Jesse

 

Thanks, CWD. Very informative article. The whole country needs to get up in arms about this move to loot of Social Security, 401Ks etc. The propagandists below, calling themselves "Think Tanks" and such, are the same people who financed the propaganda and lobbied for the deregulation etc. that brought us the current economic crisis. And they will continue to make everything worse until the public stands up to them.

 

"The authors of this plan are sixteen economists from Brookings and Heritage, joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Concord Coalition, the New America Foundation, the Progressive Policy Institute and the Urban Institute. "Our group covers the ideological spectrum," they claim. This too is a falsehood. All these organizations are corporate-friendly and dependent on big-money contributors. No liberal or labor thinkers need apply, though the group includes some formerly liberal economists like Robert Reischauer, Alice Rivlin and Isabel Sawhill."

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But they only kill tiny ones. :angry:

 

Yeah, Geithner is being a wimp about this, being afraid to nationalize big banks. He needs to get over that. FDIC needs to march in and take over large banks, if they are insolvent. They should make it temporary, if possible, if they can find buyers for the banks. But bolder quicker action is needed. Why waste time?

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