roxy Posted February 14, 2009 Report Share Posted February 14, 2009 Careful, stoolies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roxy Posted February 14, 2009 Report Share Posted February 14, 2009 Be brave and win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS Posted February 14, 2009 Report Share Posted February 14, 2009 Greenspan finally admits to being clueless but blames credit ratings agencies and Congress for world financial collapse. Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, told Crapvision in a documentary to be shown Thursday night that he did not fully understand the scope of the subprime mortgage market until well into 2005 and could not make sense of the complex derivative products created out of mortgages.....While Mr. Greenspan acknowledges that he could have done something to avert the housing crisis, he contends his hands were tied. “If we tried to suppress the expansion of the subprime market, do you think that would have gone over very well with the Congress?” Mr. Greenspan said. “When it looked as though we were dealing with a major increase in home ownership, which is of unquestioned value to this society — would we have been able to do that? I doubt it.” Story Could someone please hand that moran a mirror. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted February 14, 2009 Report Share Posted February 14, 2009 IRS Going After Mortgage Tax Cheaters The cash-strapped federal government may be especially aggressive on compliance this year. This bodes ill for Cabinet members. Of course, the IRS technically reports to Geithner -- so maybe it won't be a problem for them. Wink wink, nudge nudge, knowotimean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted February 14, 2009 Report Share Posted February 14, 2009 The counts don't here work for a 4 year cycle low. That one was right on the button. Well I ain't got no O pinion on them thar cycles....that's whut I got me the WSE Pro fer..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted February 14, 2009 Report Share Posted February 14, 2009 Our current bear is, at the very least, one degree higher than 02/03 -- i.e.- it's a cycle degree bear. Our best hope for the fractal to play out on a shorter time frame is if Primary A ended (or ends) soon -- which is entirely possible. Then we could play out the fractal with a Primary B bounce for awhile, and everyone who got burned 5 years ago would be fooled this time, thinking they'd learned from that market -- unaware that the rules have changed. That would set up Primary C, which would be the big Shorty-type NASTY. There is another possibility I'm considering (it's remote, but maybe worth mentioning). That is that Primary A ended Nov. and Primary B is ending now/soon -- this is unlikely, because it would be a very abridged B, but if the cycle downdrafts are strong enough, anything's possible. So we could head (more or less) directly to the C wipeout, do not pass go, do not collect 200 dollars. Yeah...fractals repeating on multiple timeframes doesn't necessarily imply correlations that run indefinitely. Primary B ending now would be massively bearish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unSane Posted February 14, 2009 Report Share Posted February 14, 2009 fundamentals are the ultimate lagging indicator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 14, 2009 Report Share Posted February 14, 2009 fundamentals are the ultimate lagging indicator On a macro basis, I've shown that unemployment rates run close to concurrent with stock prices and in 2 very important cases actually gave months of advance warning that stocks were headed the wrong way. http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2009/02/06/w...-dont-tell-you/ However, as a commenter on the WSE pointed out, the UE rates are only released a month after the fact. Also Roxy pointed out that on a macro basis stocks can badly lag the fundamentals, as shown by the enormous gaps that open up when earnings surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bondtrader Posted February 14, 2009 Report Share Posted February 14, 2009 stim bill fun: . The guy is holding the stim bill (or maybe something else). it is HUGE. He rails against the fact that nobody has read the entire bill. No different from the TARP bill or anything else those clowns vote on. i think the first tarp was like 2 pages .... it said " give us 700 billion, no question asked or judicial review ever needed" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bondtrader Posted February 14, 2009 Report Share Posted February 14, 2009 i think we start inflation now.... OIL is going up with FOODS etc. the 13 dollars we get from mr obama will be spent on gas im sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bondtrader Posted February 14, 2009 Report Share Posted February 14, 2009 this is americant's future... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted February 14, 2009 Report Share Posted February 14, 2009 i think we start inflation now.... OIL is going up with FOODS etc. the 13 dollars we get from mr obama will be spent on gas im sure. Some believe inflation won't start to kick in until banks have the ability to lend again. See prediction #5 http://houston.craigslist.org/pol/1033927871.html Otherwise, real stimulus is like "A trillion dollars divided among American taxpayers comes to about $7,000 per taxpayer." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted February 14, 2009 Report Share Posted February 14, 2009 K....can you create a similar chart that shows what the bottom and eventual recovery looked like in the '02-'03 period below (first red circle)? here's a multi time frame look at 2002-2003 bottom... As you can see, the ribbon is rolling over to a greater degree than in 2003, and the bounce off the weekly 900 may be about to fail, which could lead to a large, rapid decline, as we would be breaking over a decade of support, with no real support after that until the 1994 lows... I am am still leery of a stick save in this area though, that could lead to multi-month rally towards 10K, but if we start to accelerate away from 8K over the next few weeks, the abyss beckons.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted February 14, 2009 Report Share Posted February 14, 2009 Da problem I have with this comparison is that I believe this is a higher degree bear market than that one. My best guess is that the 02/03 low was primary 4 bottoming, i.e.- a primary bear. That mean '07 was the cycle top -- and possibly also a supercycle top. Our current bear is, at the very least, one degree higher than 02/03 -- i.e.- it's a cycle degree bear. Our best hope for the fractal to play out on a shorter time frame is if Primary A ended (or ends) soon -- which is entirely possible. Then we could play out the fractal with a Primary B bounce for awhile, and everyone who got burned 5 years ago would be fooled this time, thinking they'd learned from that market -- unaware that the rules have changed. That would set up Primary C, which would be the big Shorty-type NASTY. There is another possibility I'm considering (it's remote, but maybe worth mentioning). That is that Primary A ended Nov. and Primary B is ending now/soon -- this is unlikely, because it would be a very abridged B, but if the cycle downdrafts are strong enough, anything's possible. So we could head (more or less) directly to the C wipeout, do not pass go, do not collect 200 dollars. Who knows which is right, it won't become apparent until we're farther along -- but either way, even if we form a "bottom" here similar to 02/03, I believe it will eventually (as in a year or two at most) fail in spectacular fashion. If we dont fall apart right here, still lookin at this possibility.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trader Joe Posted February 14, 2009 Report Share Posted February 14, 2009 here's a multi time frame look at 2002-2003 bottom... Mucho Tanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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