Guest Posted January 31, 2005 Report Share Posted January 31, 2005 Ron - I don't see how stocks can go up in the face of a rising dollar. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Long-term, the correlation coefficient of US stocks to the US dollar is almost exactly zero. Sometimes, they trend together for a while (short-term positive correlation), sometimes it's chaotic, and sometimes (like the last couple years) they tend to move opposite to each other (negative correlation). I believe that nobody really knows, in a precise way, why the markets (or "markets"?) behave as they do, even long-term. It appears to me that psychology / emotion, with most of this being very irrational, is a big driving force. It seems to me that when the mass of players, throughout the world, think of the US as "all that" and "'da bomb," stocks and the dollar travel together, most of the time up. Think of the 1999-2000 mania, and they did travel north-bound together. When the US makes the international-scale mass of gamers nervous, as I believe the situation is now, the correlation goes negative. I have no direct evidence for this, though the charts and history sure suggest it, at least to me and my WAG. I wish somebody with the time and resources would study it. The reason why I think positive correlation up is significant is that it may show that a majority of Asian gamblers (open right now) has developed the warm and fuzzies for the US. If true, even if the "news" out of Iraq is pure BS, it's being believed. This could have staying power. DISCLAIMER: Who the eff knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 31, 2005 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2005 I continue to watch CNBS Asia with utter astonishment and amazement. How is it that Amanda Drury hasn't been swept off her feet with a multimillion dollar buyout of her future ex-husband? By one of the many HedgeFund managers with billions under management??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 31, 2005 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2005 Like I said......... Virtually every financial index, commodity, currency or other instrument on this site is red................. Except the USD which is up a measly 9 ticks. But the U.S. stock futures are bright green......... 990N is in control. Spoos are the most important traded "commodity" on the planet. Vital to the Speculative Sphere's survival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted January 31, 2005 Report Share Posted January 31, 2005 Silver just took another tumble..now trading below $6.70 at $6.67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 31, 2005 Report Share Posted January 31, 2005 But the domesticated farm animals who comprise the vast majority of Amerikan public actually beleive this drivel. Now this would explain the sexual habits of so many of these same people. They believe they're going for one of their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted January 31, 2005 Report Share Posted January 31, 2005 Thanks for the post YS, Charts of stocks in Don Coxe report SU at bottom range and PCZ at 50 look good to enter, COS gotta be brave... Going to keep these on radar and maybe take one for now...SU <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Here is a research report by Kurt Wulf who mentioned this in a Barron's article in late December. In the spirit of full disclosure I own SU and COS.UN http://www.mcdep.com/cos41203.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted January 31, 2005 Report Share Posted January 31, 2005 Mass Orwellian misinformation campaign about Iraqi selections should pump the Market. Imagine staging a vote during the first act of "Road Warrior". Ridiculous and comic. But the domesticated farm animals who comprise the vast majority of Amerikan public actually beleive this drivel. They are all long real estate too and think Al green is the 2nd coming. Prechter is an academic. I doubt he ever plays with real money. He enjoys playing the dramatic contrarian. Who cares? Here is my prediction. Al Green is precisely in action the inverse of how he is generally perceived like almost everything else in this wasteland we call American culture. He will bow out soon, probably this year and in time to preserve his image over the next span. But he is the cheerleader and co-architect behind the huge tax cuts and artifically low interest rate money pump that we know as the American economy. The coming real estate collapse will chart well with his retirement. The monkey prince will appoint a political hack to run the Fed and no one on Wall STreet will have any confidence in him. Cash will be King. If I were a big player I would go long in all the grains that are near historic lows for the Alice in Wonderland trade. I would fade the public in everything from real estate to stocks since more than anything else this is the era of True Lies where all information is very easily managed and where the Public has never been so dumb. Dumber and more subservient than in the Middle Ages. The 2 year runup was never anything more than a paper charade managed politically to create the illusion of an escape from the 01 Recession. The greatest and most dangerous of all the Lies manufactured are that this War for conquest and oil motivated by ever shortening supplies of crude was media managed as a fight for freedom and against 'terrorism' . The real terrorism is perpetrated daily on the American idiot classes by the greatest financial terrorist of all time, Al Green. The clown with the comic mug. The nondescript,shriveled old man who drones on and on about arcane econometric policy. The last place the idiots would bother to look for a terrorist. The only real place where he thrives and operates. O Sama ain't got nothing on this criminal in fact O Sama is the classic 'bogeyman' under the toilet seat, the one you use to scare a child with, the one that never fails to foil. buddha <{POST_SNAPBACK}> If we are in a war for crude, it would appear to me that the oil sands of Alberta are a good place to put some money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerMarket Posted January 31, 2005 Report Share Posted January 31, 2005 credit and inflation on the rise again down under: Higher rates coming A SURPRISE surge in credit growth will ring alarm bells at the Reserve Bank of Australia for higher interest rates, which may come as soon as Wednesday, economists said. The central bank today reported private sector credit rose a solid 1.1 per cent in December, taking year-on-year growth to a seasonally adjusted 12.5 per cent. Housing credit grew by 1.1 per cent in December and by 14.9 per cent over the year, adding to concern about a pick in housing activity. Other personal credit grew by 1.2 per cent and by 14.4 per cent over the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jickiss Posted January 31, 2005 Report Share Posted January 31, 2005 jickiss is back! and Dear Machine Head: Brilliant writing on Foobars, although your jickiss is not really sure what the real implications are of the Foobars. Dear Buddha: you have outdone yourself, with this weekend's posting; for sure, DUMBER THAN THEY WERE IN THE MIDDLE AGES. priceless. positively priceless, and perfectly correct. Dear M2Mers: Radio jickiss, in Philly, had a broadcast story this weekend about jobs leaving Philly, at a very rapid rate. the center is getting weaker by the minute. how are jobs in your hoods???? MM said that in the Southland there are jobs to be had...but who actually buys a $5,000,000 small place in Santa Monica??? Furriners???? Illegal Money???? Flight Capitalists???? now, if that idea is "at least partially valid" and everything that Buddha has posted is virtually 100% Valid, (and, for sure, Buddha holds the Track Record at many levels), then, your jickisss thinks that AT LEAST ONE OF MR. PRECHTERS PREDICTIONS WILL BE VERY WRONG. of course, it will be the Gold collapse prediction. but, forget about anything and everything for the moment, except the following observation: "Tactical Mistakes greatly enhance the odds of Stragegic Failures." all your jickiss knows, for sure, is that he should have bought Santa Monica Real Estate back in the early 1980's. all your jickiss knows for sure now is that if those prices for small properties are true, then it should be sold, and the sooner the better. finally, all your jickiss knows for sure is that the following chart means that wht will go higher. Hold Fast! ps. your jickiss hopes that one and all will write down what Buddha posted....the part about Real Estate will go down in History as being Exactly Correct. next: wht vs gg. message is to buy wht. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted January 31, 2005 Report Share Posted January 31, 2005 I've heard it too, and it mystifies me. I just don't get the connection that some folks claim exists. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Couldn't we just say that the appearance of an opposing force puts pressure on the minds of traders.... and they react accordingly. As an example .... If I stick my thumb in my mouth I can either suck it or gag and on the other end if I stick my finger in I either get relief or some pain in this sense.... crude exerts an opposing force on the market as a pain and when it gets pulled out there is relief on the minds of traders..... also, if uncle Buck is trading higher it is a pain and when it gets pulled out there is a tremendous relief - especially to goldbugs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted January 31, 2005 Report Share Posted January 31, 2005 not in alphabetical order IBD100 Changes for 1/28/2005 First Timers: NICK, MSB, IIG, CLDN, MVK, XRTX Added this week: DHB, CRDN, NICK, MSB, IIG, QSII, CLDN, TALX, CDIS, TPX, CHTT, RECN, TS, STTX, RYAAY, CACC, MVK, TXRH, MTSC, VLCCF, NAFC, XRTX, Dropped this week: CCJ, VTRU, KCI, ARLP, UFCS, CHS, SIE, NTAP, PHM, AMMD, COO, SRX, STLD, TTC, LSTR, TOO, ANF, STST, ADSK, NSC, FBP, DECK Stocks Moving Up 5 or more in rank: CME EZPW MTH LFL WBSN HYDL BRY PARL MRVL UPL NNI PVR RSTI TCBI LEV BHP GPRO CEDC CVH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 31, 2005 Report Share Posted January 31, 2005 If we are in a war for crude, it would appear to me that the oil sands of Alberta are a good place to put some money. Canada is next! Arctic Storm? Nanook Shield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubbadropping Posted January 31, 2005 Report Share Posted January 31, 2005 I sense a short squeeze this week. Engineered by media managed falsehoods regarding the black hole formerly known as Iraq, birthplace of Western Civilization. Of course all eyes will be glued to the foul utterances of one Al Green,specialist extraordinaire in global financial terrorism. Remember that it was his sour gas the last time he appeared that sent traders in perception running for the exits. These same sychophants will await his every word with hallowed analysis. Maybe this time around Al can take down an Egg McMuffin on the run,develop some serious gas blockage and then lift a sagging cheek under the table right in front of the cameras and cut an enormous clapper as a fitting comment on the state of things here in Wonderland. It is incidentally no coincidence that a Randist like Magoo who at his core is a pugnacious elitist would sell his soul further into debt aligning his sympathies and American financial strategy with the Jacobeans who now run the government. Cheney and the rest of the gang of maybe 8 or so are committed Jacobins in the tradition of Napoleon and Empire. No question about it. Delusionary quest to export American capitalism in the guise of 'democracy' to every corner of the globe. Not only absurd but ultimately, as born out time and again by history, suicidal. The sure destruction of Amerikanna is about the only thing guaranteed by such idiotic over reaching. The lessons of Waterloo,Stalingrad,Tet and so many other horror holes are lost on these fools. buddha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 31, 2005 Report Share Posted January 31, 2005 for investors, when it stops appreciating, problem with real estate is the carrying cost taxes maintenance insurance aSSociation fees landscaping, etc. negative caSSh flow really, it's like trading futures, very low margin, great when it's going your way but wipeout city when it turns on you people trading up to larger McMansions, taking out bigger mortgages, are doing the same thing as pyramiding pork belly futures on full margin except at least the pork bellies don't have huge carrying costs and they're liquid and you can place a stop-loss and hedge with options and at 25 bucks or so a round-turn the commissions are a lot cheaper with Investment Homes you're just bent over naked when the market goes agin ya trapped in a sinking ship and for individual HomeOwners that darn AMT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitall Posted January 31, 2005 Report Share Posted January 31, 2005 Virtually every financial index, commodity, currency or other instrument on this site is red................. Except the USD which is up a measly 9 ticks. But the U.S. stock futures are bright green......... 990N is in control. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Easy enough for 990N to control the night market. But to control the day time market is more expensive. Let's see whether he can do that or not. Will find out Mon. morning after the market opens-- whether this will be like the Saddam capture gap and crap, or something more enduring. Maybe Al will run all the printing presses all night to have money to hand over to ole 990 in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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