MyGoldenStool Posted May 9, 2003 Report Share Posted May 9, 2003 Hey, just noticed that Ron Peeble's column on Prudentbear from last night is missing . Is he out on the ledge with Doug noland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted May 9, 2003 Report Share Posted May 9, 2003 Hey, just noticed that Ron Peeble's column on Prudentbear from last night is missing . Is he out on the ledge with Doug noland? Nah, he's here on the bridge railing with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyGoldenStool Posted May 9, 2003 Report Share Posted May 9, 2003 Nah, he's here on the bridge railing with me. Well, I can admit to jumping out the window several times this week. Sure glad it's on the 1st floor and only results in grass stains on my clothes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wahoo Posted May 9, 2003 Report Share Posted May 9, 2003 The thing about the oscillators is that their RSI's are still climbing. Until these indicators roll over, shorting is dangerous, witness NVDA today. Anyone out there have any suggestions on how to become more "robotic", and completely remove emotions from trading?  Case in point, today I shorted NVDA at 20.50 area in the AM, covered 1/2 at 20 area, and stopped out the remaining at 20.60. I then bought May 22.5 calls for .30 and could have sold them for .45 bid at the close. A nice trade, except for the fact I have yet to be able to trade this way in size that would make a difference.  I think that I have developed a trading system that works extremely well and could be expected to return between 10% and 50% per month. Yet I have not been able to "supersize" my trading positions.  On a small scale, using this system, I started with $1000 on March 26th. I look for chart patterns based on fibonacci relationships and volume surges. Extremely tight stops and open for re-entry.  After 6 weeks, the $1000 is $3850. The problem I'm having is that I can't mentally scale up to size. In other words, I'm afraid once I put $100,000 on a trade, I'll screw up and not stop out of a losing position. I've been scaling up the initial investment (ie. next trade will be $3850), so I'll eventually get to $100,000 investments.  I guess what I'm trying to find out is what stoolies would recommend for conquering the psychological demons that keep a trader from executing a system, ie. taking the trades and taking the stops, or in other words, program trading.  Any ideas? Thanks in advance. When you put on your next trade at $3800, how will it feel compared to the first at $1000? Your comfort level will rise as your experience and confidence in the system increases. This is something which I think is individual. Youare doing something right since you are making money.  Some personal lessons which I have learned:  For myself, the trading should be a non-emotional event, almost mechanical event. If it is exciting then I am either overtrading or trading too large.  The most important thing is always using tight stops. I also never take a losing position home. If the losses are small, then I don't run the risk of having an emotional wipeout. Execution costs are so reduced for the individual trader that if the trade does not move in my direction right away, then I pack it in and wait for another entry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted May 9, 2003 Report Share Posted May 9, 2003 All this off the wall sentiment and idiot mo-mo trading and SPX is up a whopping... Â 3.0% Â ...in the last eight weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted May 9, 2003 Report Share Posted May 9, 2003 Just got word that SG target is 1620-1650 over next 6-8 weeks fwiw. I personally think we get jammed big time next week. Even the scammers get scammed sometimes...we shall see. It would produce a globex outage type effect Im sure. maybe not, just an opinion, good luck to all.  Why is everyone addicted to the S&P and never usually post the NAZ???? Are most in S&P stocks and not Naz? I dont understand... Don?t try and play around with a wounded or a sick dog. When its bite u don?t know if it?s got rabbies and how painful it may be. If u want more pain please don't let me stop u. dont understand that. U mean going long is wrong? SG target just an idea....dont think it hurts anyone to hear an elliot wave take, I see Naz 1610 resistance,no waves necessary, that would be huge on the stocks Im in!!!  Pile, why are you so focused on the S&P? Shorting sick dogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ned38 Posted May 9, 2003 Report Share Posted May 9, 2003 The thing about the oscillators is that their RSI's are still climbing. Until these indicators roll over, shorting is dangerous, witness NVDA today. Anyone out there have any suggestions on how to become more "robotic", and completely remove emotions from trading?  Case in point, today I shorted NVDA at 20.50 area in the AM, covered 1/2 at 20 area, and stopped out the remaining at 20.60. I then bought May 22.5 calls for .30 and could have sold them for .45 bid at the close. A nice trade, except for the fact I have yet to be able to trade this way in size that would make a difference. ?  I think that I have developed a trading system that works extremely well and could be expected to return between 10% and 50% per month. Yet I have not been able to "supersize" my trading positions.  On a small scale, using this system, I started with $1000 on March 26th. I look for chart patterns based on fibonacci relationships and volume surges. Extremely tight stops and open for re-entry.  After 6 weeks, the $1000 is $3850. The problem I'm having is that I can't mentally scale up to size. In other words, I'm afraid once I put $100,000 on a trade, I'll screw up and not stop out of a losing position. I've been scaling up the initial investment (ie. next trade will be $3850), so I'll eventually get to $100,000 investments.  I guess what I'm trying to find out is what stoolies would recommend for conquering the psychological demons that keep a trader from executing a system, ie. taking the trades and taking the stops, or in other words, program trading.  Any ideas? Thanks in advance. I had the same problem. What I did is I got a trade book and paper traded 150k for about 90 days. You have to be honest with yourself about buy and sell points and make sure that the liquidity is large enough to fill your paper trade. Man, when I made a bad trade and whacked the profit it was like losing real money. Keep perfect records and make sure you record every trade as well as margin charges and trade commissions.  By the way when I went to real money my first 4 trades were losers, after that things smoothed out and I got into the same rythem I was in when it was just paper.  Hope that helps you.  Quicktrade WH and I also did plenty of thinking on this topic. I think it boils down to: 1. backtesting 2. clearly defined rules 3. inner confidence that it will work.  After we first started developing our trading models, we first spent hours and hours backtesting them to give us the confidence that they work. Paper trading works too, although it's never the same until you've thrown real money at a system.  We wrote out the rules on index cards that are pinned up at eye-level to prevent "cheating" when the trade doesn't work.  In the beginning I was more cautious than WH about throwing real money at it, even though the backtests showed a very promising prognosis. So we started with smallish amounts and as the trades became more successful, it gave me more confidence to be bolder. After three months or so, I asked myself why on earth I didn't believe what the spreadsheets had told us from the start.  We're constantly tinkering at what we do and adding new permutations and combinations, so this is very much an ongoing issue for us. I personally don't think there's anything wrong with under-capitalizing in the beginning until you feel comfortable with what you're doing. After all, until you have sufficient confidence behind what you're doing, you're more likely to make mistakes.  Lastly, we keep detailed records of every trade, including % gain/loss and commissions.  Hope that helps, I'll look forward to reading from others, MWH Having never traded a bull market I made the mistake of using bear market technique during this bull run  So I bailed out of scalps and swing dongs the moment a chart pattern seemed to fail or the stock "acted" poorly.  Every single stock I got out of was promptly lifted back up to my original "best case" targets by the rising tide of bull mania. So in spite of having great setups and good charts and accurate targets I still underperformed.  Most of these trades were done with small amounts of money ....approx $5K.....because I was afraid to be long , knowing what we know about the big picture.  Point is that using small amounts of money to start is probably better as you go through the anguish of seperating your emotions and knowledge from trading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted May 9, 2003 Report Share Posted May 9, 2003 Last nite B belt posted "don't be surprised if it goes up 1 more time to a lower high before it falls". I posted I agreed with his stance but wasn't sure if we went up now or went a bit lower first. Well we went up today and to a lower HIGH which is significant. What I saw yesterday is best illustrated in Zorans chart posted this morning on safehaven. Have a look at it and you will see a clean head and shoulders formation with only the right shoulder missing-today we completed that right shoulder, Zorans conclusion before the market opened was we would do that as was mine. Now we can only negate that formation if we go HIGHER from here -if we do the Bullz have the ball for a while. My take is Monday we go down hard-which puts me in agreement with Sloth-this is the retest-if we fall off that right shoulder-look out below! Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stoolander Posted May 9, 2003 Report Share Posted May 9, 2003 Vince Farrell currently on Crapvision making the prediction that this recovery will be "jobless and sluggish". Hmmm, what miniscule part of "recovery" is he focused on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted May 9, 2003 Author Report Share Posted May 9, 2003 Free MarketRap From Fleck: Â Fleckenstein Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted May 9, 2003 Report Share Posted May 9, 2003 Here is a fun chart with nice symmetrical triangle. If I had a time I would work out trading days relationship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 9, 2003 Report Share Posted May 9, 2003 I think Blackbelt said something like "what the bears need is a 1- or 2-day rally that puts in a lower high." Today might be it, or Monday could finish it off. Volume was anemic, the end-of-day squeeze had price action but no high tick reading nor volume acceleration (only my observation, could be wrong). JM thinks Monday and Tuesday are important and should tell the story. If we put in a higher high with volume, all bets are off...Until then, I am short. Â Stephen Roach had an interesting piece last night arguing a weakened $$ could be good for the US economy in the long run, and today Snow's comment might be signalling the paradigm shift from the strong dollar policy (read Thestreet.com article by Task). If this is what they are thinking, a lot more pain lies ahead for the market, and for all paper assets. Â Edit: Brian, you said it before I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackbelt Posted May 9, 2003 Report Share Posted May 9, 2003 I guess what I'm trying to find out is what stoolies would recommend for conquering the psychological demons that keep a trader from executing a system, ie. taking the trades and taking the stops, or in other words, program trading. Stop reading newsgroups, boards and forums.... and that's a serious statement. Â Opinions are like ...... you know what. Everyone has one. System trading is a complete different animal. It's based on the premise that something that worked in the past will work again. Not 100% but that's something you already know. There will be times that the system will lose. That's another thing you already know. But the moment you allow yourself to doubt the system, you are done. And the only way you can allow yourself to doubt the system, is if you read someone's opinion, especially something you didn't think of. Mind games.... Â With time you'll find yourself more confident and you'll be able to start reading again people's comments but this time, you'll smile. It won't bother you if their opinion is in the opposite position of your system. Â Â Â Need to get some rest for the weekend.... Â After two months trading on the long side, next week I think I'll go net short. There are some stocks with lower highs diverging the indexes. If I'm wrong, and the markets move higher, no harm done. The cycle that has been working for almost a year is pointing to a high, now. This current period. If the markets move higher it will be a sign that a different cycle is taking over. I just have to spend sometime to find it.... Â Enjoy the weekend all and remember... Â "There is a time to sow and a time to reap" or in other words "A time to buy and a time to short" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted May 9, 2003 Report Share Posted May 9, 2003 More chart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slothrop Posted May 9, 2003 Report Share Posted May 9, 2003 1927-1933 Chart with Pompous Prognosticators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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