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When Will It End- Professional Edition Fed Report

January 10, 2010 By Lee Adler The wild card is a huge cash hoard that the Treasury has built up, several times larger than is typical for this time of year. If the Treasury uses that cash hoard to reduce debt operations in the short run, that will prop the market. If they use it to increase spending, it will continue to put a prop under economic activity which would have less, if any, impact on the markets. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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Lee, I did the math here recently on what the estimated "savings" were from one of these interventions on the net cost of issuance - IIRC, the specific instance involved something like a 9-figure cost reduction on a 13-figure coupon debt issuance (which would make this the only corner of the teaming federal government where penny-pinching occurs). I'm happy to rerun the numbers on the next available week's worth of coupon debt and assume that the clearing yield has been bid down entirely by intervention from the highest available yield that week prior to auction.

 

But that's a different discussion.

 

The one here involves Patents' view that some public entity is routinely active in the market for equity index futures with the goal of bidding up the underlying cash market.

 

Do you believe that has occurred, and that it has been essential to the rally off the March lows?

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Just wondering if it was a coincidence or a sign from the heavens that the Nikkme rallied at the end of the day and took off like a scalded cat into the close similarly to the action of the SNP Friday.

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Just sayin'

______________________

 

In 1974, the great financial anal cyst Benjamin Graham wryly described the efficient-market hypothesis as a theory that "could have great practical importance if it coincided with reality." Mr. Graham marveled at how Avon Products, which traded at $140 a share in 1973, had sunk below $20 in 1974: "I deny emphatically that because the market has all the information it needs to establish a correct price the prices it actually registers are in fact correct."

 

Mr. Graham proposed that the price of every stock consists of two elements. One, "investment value," measures the worth of all the cash a company will generate now and in the future. The other, the "speculative element," is driven by sentiment and emotion: hope and greed and thrill-seeking in bull markets, fear and regret and revulsion in bear markets.

 

Source

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Just sayin'

______________________

 

In 1974, the great financial anal cyst Benjamin Graham wryly described the efficient-market hypothesis as a theory that "could have great practical importance if it coincided with reality." Mr. Graham marveled at how Avon Products, which traded at $140 a share in 1973, had sunk below $20 in 1974: "I deny emphatically that because the market has all the information it needs to establish a correct price the prices it actually registers are in fact correct."

 

Mr. Graham proposed that the price of every stock consists of two elements. One, "investment value," measures the worth of all the cash a company will generate now and in the future. The other, the "speculative element," is driven by sentiment and emotion: hope and greed and thrill-seeking in bull markets, fear and regret and revulsion in bear markets.

 

Source

Graham was clearly a chump tool of The Them, since he overlooked the third essential element of share price, and that is the extent & direction of involvement of The Them in the market for equity index futures.....

 

:lol: :lol: :lol:

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Graham was clearly a chump tool of The Them, since he overlooked the third essential element of share price, and that is the extent & direction of involvement of The Them in the market for equity index futures.....

 

:lol: :lol: :lol:

In 1974, it mighta been a little harder for the quants to program the computer and use the interwebs for instantaneous trading.

 

And I think Glass-Steagall was still operative then, and there were a lot more big-time Wall Street brokerage houses.

 

Just sayin'

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In 1974, it mighta been a little harder for the quants to program the computer and use the interwebs for instantaneous trading.

 

And I think Glass-Steagall was still operative then, and there were a lot more big-time Wall Street brokerage houses.

 

Just sayin'

 

:huh:

 

And yet, we were encouraged last weekend to observe the remarkable similarity in performance of the equity indices between the current period and the early 1970s period.

 

Very similar, right?

 

So, Drano, since you raise the issue: is that similarity in performance in the absence of the available trading platforms you wish to establish as relevant proof that The same Them were rigging both markets? In essence, that the similarity in the performance of the indices in two periods separated by 40 years is effectively their signature all over both markets?

 

Is that your position?

 

And since you raise the topic, I'm sure you're aware :rolleyes: that equity index futures became available in the early 1980s:

 

February 16, 1982—The CFTC approves the first futures contract based on a stock index, the Value Line Index Average traded on the Kansas City Board of Trade.

http://www.cftc.gov/aboutthecftc/historyof...tory_1980s.html

 

So, we know that in that earlier period, The Them weren't able to manipulate the cash market with a permabid in an S&P pit...

 

And yet, we are to remark on the similarity in performance of the indices?

 

So now, we know that the indices can do what they do in the absence of the index futures market - ergo, it is not a necessary condition for The Them to work their will.

 

So, you haven't really puzzled this through clearly & consistently.

 

Just sayin'....

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jickiss is back!

 

 

 

jickiss is back!

 

 

and

 

wow.

 

the entire contents of this board this weekend (ok, forget the annoying parts of the jickiss posts) ought to be formatted into a file that should be made available on the net. Promote. Marketing Makes Money!

 

So Now, a master theory of Stock Price Emerges, from Caital Stool.

 

A Stocks Price is (=) a sum of Investment Value + Speculative Value + a Function of the Manipulative Force Applied to the Index Futures.

 

Of course, those who worship at the altar of Math will separate out and configure, through time, the present (t1) for the Expected Elements of the 3 factors. (t2, t3, etc).

 

It is all true, and for the record, your jickiss agrees with everything that Shorty has said.

 

your jickiss now wants to toss out two or three more concepts, concepts that explain "al lot of Everything."

 

 

It is better to form the concepts in a question/discussion form, rather than to annoy with precision.

 

Events that have created what is referred to as "Price" today are only clear it you believe a few things about the past. Here we go:

 

1. When Nixon opened the door to China, with Mr. Rock-a-fella, the world was Shocked. Why did he do it? many asked, for they thought of China an enemy of the USA. (Your jickiss is NOT going to tell you that China is an Enemy of the USA, you have to decide that answer for yourself, but for sure, Mr. Rock-a-fella was smarter than he was given credit for.) Here is the answer: AFRICA.

 

2. The deal to open up China was Struck to Give China the Major Long Term Hand to operate in AFRICA, where most of the remaining Wealth (metals and minerals in the ground) exist on Earth. Especially to begin at the East Coast of Africa, where, if you look, you will see that the very wise Mr. Sinclair has "Interests." The deal with China was also cast in a way that will give China Settlement Rights for its zillions of land poor citizens....What your jickiss is trying to tell you is that, if you thimk, your thimking on Africa and China and the USA may take on a different hue.

 

3. The deal to open up China, so that China could take over AFRICA involved BONDS. Got that???? Bonds, as Doc frequently says, are what Matter. This is the deeper reason that Shorty is correct in all that he has posted this weekend, is for the reason that Doc has given; namely, the Stock Market is a Side Show versus the Bond Markets.

 

4. Now, moving ahead, you naturally know that the Dirty Hand loves to do two or three things at once, like magic, so to say. When China was given the rights to move into Africa, the deal was that this would be funded by sales of product at cheap or low price to the USA. The Proceeds Were Used to Buy Treasury and other Bonds. Got that??? Bonds were purchased. Meanwhile, the Labour Arbitrage to Destroy Middle Class Wealth for the USA was also set up. Unions were wiped out in the Productive Sector, but as a Control Mechanism, were encouraged to develop in the Alpha Bets Sectors (Cops, Fire, Teachers, Federal, et al.) The made inside owners of Capital moved it to the low labour cost zones that were made Safe for capital investment. The dumb owners of capital sat still, and went BK. (Remember the 80s, when the Phrase "I've been japped," arose? pure cover for the real Game, which was China.)

 

5. As more and more Bonds were purchased, yields dropped. As yields dropped, the made insiders were able to concentrate their Wealth. Lower and Lower rates increase Wealth concentration. This has led to the complete Buy out of the so called 2 parties in the usa. (in case it is not clear, lower and lower rates concentrate the ownership of capital, for lower and lower rates encourage the unwise ("consumers") to spend, whilst the Owners re-finance high cost debt into low cost debt, which is paid off with printed equity swapped for debt (Michael Milken) which is free when sold at PE s at 20 to 70x or whatever).

 

Someone posted the question: "Ok, so why did it stop in March 09, if there really is control." These kinds of questions arise when the questioner assumes that the top is Patriotic to the USA. It may be, but the Dirty Hand that hand picks the Top is NOT. The Dirty Hand wants to destroy the USA Middle Class, and this mission is almost realized. Shorty, too, has discussed this. Shorty is right. The equity market was stopped at the point where real damage was Accomplished, but one of the cars in the Drive way still starts: "Thimk Ford." Baseball, Apple Pie and Chevrolet are not in the hands of the feds.

 

Ok, you will jump and shout and say, hey, jickiss, you Moran, what about Russia and Europe?

 

Easy. Russia controls Europe via energy supplies. Russia has controlled much of Euro politics via its agents, deep moles within the top parties and firms of Europe. Europe lost its way when it Lost its Kings, which was part of the plan of the Dirty Hand. (The Hand of the King is the Hand of the Healer, so let's get rid of the Hand of the King (s)). Europe without Kings is no match for the Russians. Europe is Socialized. Socialized to the point of having no will to fight. Why do you think that the Best Fighting Force in Europe is the French Foreign Legion, 100% non-French Citizens??? (as an aside, England is really not part of Europe, still having Royals that count, at least, for the moment).

 

Europe was also destroyed by Socialism from a mundane financial standpoint, as has been the USA. The USA has gone from being a Physical Country where "All men are CREATED equal," to a Virtual Construct where "All men are Equal." Hoo Ha, indeed. All men may be created equal, but some are born with more money than others.....

 

Of course, by now, if you can thimk, you can see that the Signal Event was the opening of China, via the promise made to let China take over Africa. This led to the dropping of Interst Rates, which led to the takeovers of the parties, and the the crushing of the great stable Middle in the USA. The phoney cover was Patriotism, the mask of the Top.

 

The issues for the Markets are not over, however. The USA Stock Market, as Shorty has Instructed and Explained, is easy. The Bond Markets are not as Easy, due to the China factor. The Currency Markets are even not easy at all. Watch the doolar. This is Why the doolar USDX index now moves Everything. The Top (Under the Dirty Hand, lower, but quite well off now) is starting to ask the following question:

 

"If you were the top boi in China, would you still value the promises made by Mr. Nixon and Mr. Rock-a-fella, or did you know that they knew that you would wait and delay hard solutions in favour of Long Term Softer Methods? If you thimk deeper, is Biology more Powerful than Physics? Politics, dear Friends at Stoolville, is still The Master Science on Earth, and, if you thimk even more, it May Be The Master Science of the Universe. As above, so below.

 

to be clear, (but it matters not at all)

your jickiss still is an uber bear:

 

for

 

In the END, Only the Gold and Silver and Miners and Miners Related Longs,

and the Broads Shorts

will win big!

 

Hold Fast!

There are Acres of Diamonds Ahead!

 

Shoot the cat

That ate the rat

Buy the Gold

Do not Fold!

 

regards to all

jickiss!!!!!!!

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President Obama clearly gave the signal to buy stocks.

 

He knew what was coming and gave fair warning that the greatest stock rally in modern history was about to happen. I highly doubt that was a coincidence.

So, does the POTUS take his marching orders from The Them, or upon taking the oath, is he handed authority over the trading desk operated by The Them?

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:huh:

 

And yet, we were encouraged last weekend to observe the remarkable similarity in performance of the equity indices between the current period and the early 1970s period.

 

Very similar, right?

 

So, Drano, since you raise the issue: is that similarity in performance in the absence of the available trading platforms you wish to establish as relevant proof that The same Them were rigging both markets? In essence, that the similarity in the performance of the indices in two periods separated by 40 years is effectively their signature all over both markets?

 

Is that your position?

 

And since you raise the topic, I'm sure you're aware :rolleyes: that equity index futures became available in the early 1980s:

 

 

http://www.cftc.gov/aboutthecftc/historyof...tory_1980s.html

 

So, we know that in that earlier period, The Them weren't able to manipulate the cash market with a permabid in an S&P pit...

 

And yet, we are to remark on the similarity in performance of the indices?

 

So now, we know that the indices can do what they do in the absence of the index futures market - ergo, it is not a necessary condition for The Them to work their will.

 

So, you haven't really puzzled this through clearly & consistently.

 

Just sayin'....

Food Fight ! ! !

 

You are misrepresenting my position.

 

My position is simply: Things have changed a lot since the 1970's. The access to information, speed of execution, repeal of Glass-Steagall, consolidation of major brokerage houses into a few big players, existence or at least acknowledgment of the existence of a government entity aka "PPT," a couple of successive Fed chairs taking unheard of actions, trillion dollar bailouts --- the list goes on --

 

I think conditions are a little different now than in 1974.

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jickiss is back!

 

 

 

jickiss is back!

 

 

and

 

Dear Jimi,

 

in the earlier period, before the development of the Spoozer Futures scheme, the Specialists could do the manip via maniping 20 or so stocks, via shorting. (This control of 20 or so moved all the rest, as Shorty says, the control of that which they think matters more than anything else! ohmigod, IBM is down 3, the world must be ending (back in 1970!).

 

your jickiss is no expert,

 

but the Specialists had their own account, they had the account they used to "stabilize the market in the stocks they were Specialists for, and they had a third account, holding trades for floor brokers for short term interday holdings.

 

if you were the Specialist in IBM, and you needed an uptick, before you could bang down let's say 300,000 of IBM (a big deal back then, peanuts now.) all you did was wink over at your jickiss who was the Specialist in, let's say, JNJ, at the next station, and presto, your jickiss would buy 100 IBM up 1/8, from you, and then you had the uptick that you needed to short, and so on.

 

don't you recall that GS and other large players bot most of the remaining Specialist Firms on the NYSE a few years ago? It would be interesting to know if there are still Specialists that are independent on the NYSE. Do members still have to show trades first on the so called Floor? Are there still real Specialists now? does anybody know? (Send Doc on a Fact Finding Mission to Southern Manhattan, so we can get some answers. AM at the NYSE, Lunch at the Dog, Dinner in the Fed Basement, counting gold bars, no deep drilling allowed, grab his Makita Ion Powered Drill with the diamond bits, please!).

 

Stoolville Expects that Doc will endeavour to accomplish a New York Fact Finding Mission. Get a Grant from GATA, or some place! Thimk! Do!

 

Go!!!!!

 

the details matter, but most are now chartists, so many items should be reviewed for the future...who has time?

 

jickiss!

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In 1974 the business of America was not moving pieces of paper around it was Manufacturing and R&D. America is collapsing just like GB and Rome before it. Live it, Love it and try to stay out of the way while you make a little moonya.

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By the way, I plan on being net short by Wed. and encourage all to follow me.

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Years ago, I read an account of what is claimed to have happend in October 1987 - namely, a guy no one had ever seen before walking out onto the floor of the S&P pits and taking the long end of any trade available.

 

Anyone have a link to anything about that? Preferably, a first-hand account? I'm pretty sure that what I read was a claimed first-hand account, but time plays tricks.

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