sweefraapp Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 K: That would put the bombing to start on the Bradley 3/13 date. tonight's Asia way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 how wild is that?! Well if we are over-sold going into that date then rally, otherwise crapper. We'll see when we get there. Taking it day-by-day here. :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coboy Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 Opinions about direction are all over the place, waterfalling, spiking, flatlining, dripping, spiking then falling, falling then erectimg.. Makes one think are markets just a roll of dice ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted March 6, 2003 Author Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 Hey Brian4: I'm looking for waterfall signals, similar to the June-July drop last year. At that time most major stocks were rolling over. This time its different. Lots of stocks show no signs of weakness, and keep going up. Too much divergence for a big drop right now. Still say we have more sideways to up to allow AMGN, EBAY, EXPE, INTU, DELL to reach a plateau and start to roll to the downside. Seems like a lot of these screamers are still in full charge mode to the upside. The big time waterfalls are easy to spot when most widely held stocks and big caps start rolling over at the same time. Don't see it yet.... And one other thing. The MACD hasn't crossed over yet. Still in a bull mode..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 Yes Coboy, they are a roll of the dice, some guessers are just more educated than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 Hey Brian4: I'm looking for waterfall signals, similar to the June-July drop last year. At that time most major stocks were rolling over. This time its different. Lots of stocks show no signs of weakness, and keep going up. Too much divergence for a big drop right now. Still say we have more sideways to up to allow AMGN, EBAY, EXPE, INTU, DELL to reach a plateau and start to roll to the downside. Seems like a lot of these screamers are still in full charge mode to the upside. The big time waterfalls are easy to spot when most widely held stocks and big caps start rolling over at the same time. Don't see it yet.... And one other thing. The MACD hasn't crossed over yet. Still in a bull mode..... Wndy, You might want checkout a little project I did on the 8 stocks that make up 50% of the Dow. We are on the verge of sychronous collapse. It may not happen, but it sure as hell is setup for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayok Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 Yes Coboy, they are a roll of the dice, some guessers are just more educated than others. Yes, the harder I work, the luckier I get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 JerryMcGuire: appreciate your loyalty to a fellow stoolie but GTN LOVES a good tongue lashing... why else would he bring his long term bullishness into a bear forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smartman Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 I have been lurking for some time, great board, best I have ever visited. just wanted to test the system. hate to look stupid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dumpabuck Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 The End - Don't think we're actually that similar to Japan. Different governments, different economies. This "big drop" may be coming, I don't dispute that. Of course how long have most been here been saying that now? I guess if you say something long enough, eventually it might be true, just ask Arch. On the Beach, I never alluded to "occupying Iraq" only to the battle at hand. i can say that because I have a ton of military service behind me. Occupation will be done by the U.N., probably headed by the French, if they aren't too afraid and still have a face left. Pee Brain, my hero. Do you think the socialist governments of Germany and France would like to take over New York and California? Because that's where both of those states are headed. Straight to the bottom. Good luck y'all, either way, if it turns out the way you think and the world ends, long or short, everyone is screwed. Boy are you going to be proven wrong in years to come This parallels the overconfident views of the US economy, at least up to now. But recently even the poodips have turned noticably negative. Me, I have my money where my mouth is: betting against the USA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 Good point Rayok-Mark- K wave just gave you some food for thought-don't look at the market you have i.e the broad view look inside and see the rot amidst all hoopla. This thing has been dying for a long time-it's over-watch tomorrow-watch it happen-Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 Aussie - I am not loyal to any particular person, but I am not married to the bearish bias either. However inexperienced I am in trading I do understand it's dangerous to have a biased mindset, bullish or bearish. You'll tend to interpret data with your bias and derive flawed conclusions. That's the last thing I want to do. But hey what do I know, I am just an intern and still learning here -- I hope the majority is right and we'll have a waterfall type of decline, but I've seen plenty of times when bears get frustrated as much as bulls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tig 'Ol Bitties Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 My thoughts on "waterfalls"... Last year, the closest we came to real capitulation was in the first half of July. It was vicious, not Black Monday vicious, but really non-stop selling day in and day out from June up to July 24th. The only thing was June was fairly controlled, they kept everyone glued to their terminals with the two down, one up, two down, one up. Things got very messy in July, which just so happened to coincide with the end of the 2nd quarter and about 80 million retirement plan participant statements arriving in mailboxes drenched in negatives. People wanted out and wanted out badly. The only orders going through our desk were sells and I heard many long phone calls from the older, less technical brokers giving the "...its for the long term" speech. (Thankfully, I had none of those such calls). People flat out do not track the market like they did in the late 90s anymore. I have friends that dont even open up their statements, I have tried in the past three years to get them to sell equities but they are resigned to ride it out now as they think its too late to bail. But July scared a few of them enough to run for the exits. Most haven't come back and the ones that did are just waiting to see another statement like that one to run again. I think it will only gain momentum when it happens again. Think about it this way, the S&P fell 13.7% for the quarter from March 28th to June 28, 2002. This quarter we are tracking at -5.67% with 18 trading days remaining in the quarter. At the same point in time in that quarter ended June 30, 2002 gives us June 4th and we were already down 9.29% with 18 trading days left. We are not quite as ugly now. Barring another attack or more corporate scandal, I dont think we get our waterfall this quarter, unless things pick up to the downside rapidly. Now next quarter, well that is a completely different story. Those statements are what will bring your waterfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 Thinking you could be correct B4. We're 15 mins from close here, have done an intraday double top and now back to where we started from. Don't look too healthy at all.... All Ords +0.6 ... oh dear, just gone red Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lethal Dose Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 I just have to speak up on behalf of GTN: what's with all the heat? The man took his position and stood by it - whether he is right or wrong, the market will prove it. He could very well be right: again I recall back in October GTN was also the lone voice warning everyone the rally had legs but no one was listening and very few showed any sign of appreciation and respect for him making the right call. The board was complacent with strong conviction for the continued bearish case, and I can sense the similar level of complacency on this board right now. I for one do think the bullish case, at least in the short term, might have legs: 1) VIX and VXN haven't broken to the upside -- you can interpret it as the market's lack of fear and they are about to explode to the upside, but they might also suggest a further drive down along with a market rally; 2) MACD has not crossed over to the downside on any of the indices, not a sell signal yet; 3) We are still in a trading range - in fact S&P came back to the range today above 826 after testing 818 on lighter volume, a potential bullish sign; 4) In the past two weeks we had bigger volume in up days than in down days; and 5) Finally, 10-year yield sits at lowest level in 6 months and last time we saw yield this low it was exactly on October 9th, the 'temporary' bottom - potential 'asset relocation' from bond to equity coming? Just think we need to look at this market from both sides. I mean if you are like Pile and have ridden the market down from the very top sure you have nothing to worry about but if we talk about from this point, in the short-term, the market is a tossup, and it could go either direction. But I don't know shit (I normally analyze stocks' fundamentals, not technicals) and I'll shut up - I just wanted to give GTN the due respect here. It's twoo, it's twoo! The "waterfall" needs to show up soon or the bull case could definitely get stronger. We are not nearly dover sole as we were in October (or July), but the High/Low indexes and a few other short term indicators are in positive territory. This thing is very mixed right now and you can see it -every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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