Dr Gold Chimes Back In ...

[ThorAss]

I've used the Zow here because I have data on it back to 1984. If there was something I could use to go back to about '75 I'd use it but I wouldn't go back beyond $35 gold. First thing most of this chart covers a long consolidation period, bear market if you will, from the post all-time highs of the early '80s. I think we have indeed entered a more favourable period judging from this chart. Two major cycles of 6.5 and 8 years have been completed on this chart. About 13-18 months after the major low there has been a major high then a retest (higher or lower) just over 2 years later. If our current cycle follows this pattern then we can expect our retest high sometime from June 2004 to Jan 2005. The broad inter-high low is due this summer but may actually be higher than where we are now but I expect a rally into May/June first. After this summer's low we such expect a strong rally lasting 13 to 18 months.

So we are in a period of mixed cycles heading into a minor low ahead of a minor rally ahead of a mid-cycle-highs low. Once this low has been achieved (and it may be higher than we are now) the cycles should all be up for a rally that last 13 to 18 months.

 

[Guest]

Thor, $XAU did not exist before 1984, I think.

 

Also, I have modified your chart one tiny little bit - now it is "live" and doesn't end on March 17. We should even be able to see the "ghost bar" while the market is open.

 

Regards,

Vesselin

[ThorAss]

Thanks. I suspected as much.

[Slothrop]

Dec '00 MACD higher low with a new XAU lower low is a classic.

[Guest]

Dec '00 MACD higher low with a new XAU lower low is a classic.

Hmmmm....

 

 

Regards,

Vesselin