wndysrf Posted December 12, 2002 Report Share Posted December 12, 2002 Mark?s Market Commentary ? December 12, 2002 Ever watch those old James Bond movies when the villian is getting ready to launch some poison globes from outer space or fire up some exotic ground based weapon? There?s always some guy on a loudspeaker announcing the step by step countdown to the main event, followed by some other ?monitor? who must repeat the instructions: ?Open bay doors? ?Open bay doors? ?Activate warhead? ?Activate warhead? ?Prepare launch sequence? ?Prepare launch sequence? As if all those drones wearing red or blue suits scurrying around are really paying attention or really care what is happening. They are all slaves anyway, and the grand announcements are simply gestures to aggrandize the chief villian?s crowning accomplishment. The bullhorn and loudspeaker operators for The Wall Struck Matrix are really no different. Al Green makes some announcement about ?balanced risks? and ?recovering soft spots? at the FOMC meeting. Nobody is really listening, and the announcements are simply designed to further elevate Al Green?s ?Maestro? stature so he can live another week to satisfy Andrea?s insatiable demands for more facelifts, makeup, and jewelry. And immediately, the Matrix Mobsters must assemble in the Control Room and hit the microphones to parrot the party line. This morning, the tape was immediately flooded with bullish forecasts about stocks and the economy: ?US stocks to produce returns of 8 to 9% in 2003: DeAM by Tomi Kilgore Deutsche Asset Management (DeAM) said it believes 2003 should produce returns of 8 to 9 percent for equity investors in the U.S., given improved productivity and supportive fiscal and monetary policy. The money manager is anticipating and even better performance in Europe. "We believe the recent improvement in earnings, combined with an extremely low interest rate environment, should bring a more positive view from investors about the outlook for the stock market," said Janet Campagna, DeAM's head of advanced research and quantitative strategies.? And once again, for the second day in a row, Tony Crescenzi, the master showman, is dragged out to issue some statement: ?Get ready for better growth, Crescenzi says by Rex Nutting The U.S. economy is accelerating toward 3.5% growth in the first half of 2003, said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak. Crescenzi said the Fed's monetary policy is pumping money into the economy at a tremendous rate. The full impact of the fiscal stimulus and the mortgage refinancings have yet to hit, he said. Early indicators of global growth, like commodity prices, exchange prices and even shipping traffic in European ports, signal increased activity, he said.? Who is this Tony Crescenzi? What are his credentials? Who is Miller Tabak? Where did this bucket shop come from? How do they get paid? How many sheep are getting fleeced by this outfit? Early this morning, we had the usual Boner Run in the futures market, but when the cash market opened up, the stocks immediately sold off. Al Green?s Bloomberg Ear Implant issued its usual warning alarm, so while Andrea was giving him the regular morning bubble bath, he picked up the Bat Phone, floated another double shot round of Repos, and told Da Boyz to start buying. Buddha was sitting in the Luxury Box seats at the Arena, viewing the morning V-Blast: ?Looks like another in a long line of V Rocket blasts off the 10 am Keno turn in the S&P futures pits this morning. Al Green is back cracking dice down across the long velvet. Two day runs following the FOMSovietCommittee edicts are relatively common. Old man ego runs. Impotent old idiot Economists tinkering with massive market interventionism nonstop 24/7. The American Way. Futures buying marks two major flagpoles to 906, intraday top soon to be broken, shorts to be squeezed and run for another day. Wannabe dominatrix Lesley LeRouche out trowling preMarket, barking about buying excitement in 'the Techs and Bios!!!'. I am only interested in speculating on what she is wearing beneath the demure Ann Taylor blouse and slacks she has going for the day. Metal studded bra and sequined black thong? Ruby Red Navel piercing? Wild biker chick buttock tatooes? Whats her story anyway? Who cares for price action today? Let?s discuss what really matters.? In the meantime, while the Global Paper Speculators were busy trying to spot ?breakouts? on QueerLogic and all the other Supermodels, we had genuine bull market activity somewhere else. The widely despised and scorned gold market, which for months had frustrated the participants, had reached a point where where nobody was paying attention anymore. Bottom in gold? Who cares? What investor would want to invest in those old, tired, relics when 16% daily moves can be had in a blown out ex-Soap Opera actress like KLIC? ?Kulicke & Soffa rallies on Maxum ball bonder order (KLIC) by Michael Baron Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC) is jumping 87 cents, or 16.2 percent, to $6.24, after the Willow Grove, Pa., provider of chip assembly and testing equipment received an order for 300 of its Maxum automatic ball bonders from Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (ASX). Finanical terms of the deal weren't disclosed.? What are ball bonders? Sounds like something to be purchased out of Leslie LaRoche?s S & M catalog. And what about those ?financial terms?? No deposit, no interest, no payments, till 2004? Order can be cancelled without notice? And we continue to get those ?blue light specials? announced on the bullhorns suggesting that the Riverboaters load up on some of these Death Stars like Comcast: ?Comcast reiterates free cash flow target (CMCSK, CMCSA) by Allen Wan Comcast is comfortable with the Wall Street forecast of 2002 cash flow of $800 million to $1 billion, Executive Vice President John Alchin told anal cysts and fund managers at the UBS Warburg Media Week Conference. As it absorbs its acquisition of AT&T Broadband, it's (CMCSCK) (CMCSA) expecting to generate at least 20 percent operating cash flow growth over time. It plans to give more guidance at its next quarterly conference call in February. The cable TV giant plans to trim its debt by $5.3 billion to $26 billion in 2003. It's rolling out a new ad campaign featuring Lance Armstrong as it focuses on growing cable subscriptions and moves away from telephony services championed by AT&T.? A billion in free cash flow? That barely makes a dent in its $31 billion debt load. By the way, where are they going to find $5.3 billion to reduce the debt to $26 billion? Alchin probably has a plan to ?Riverboat? his way to debt repayment by using the $1 billion in cash flow to invest in some spectacular derivative scheme dreamed up by JPM to produce some ?Other Income? Hail Mary pass for FY 2003. While The Matrix is trying to keep the participants focused on these bombs, a real bull market is unfolding in gold. The last few days, we saw classic new bull market action as gold traded quietly higher and finally exploded today to break out of the $330 barrier. What is the sentiment and psychology regarding the gold market now? Every gold share investor is keenly interesting in SELLING on these spikes, because the perception is that recent gold rallies are NOT to be trusted. And of course, Bubblevision talking heads will be laughing out loud, ?talking down? the gold stocks because they think the prices will collapse once the new Desert Classic war commences. That is the sign of a real move which needs to be bought. Where FEAR and LOATHING accompanies a rising market. Quite the contrast to the attitude that when INTC has ?bottomed? at $13, greedy hopers pile on at $15, $18, and $20 with relentless dip buying on the expectation of reaching Greaseman Dan Niles? $40 price target. On a daily basis, we get constant earnings news from the likes of Proctor & Gamble, New York Times, Gannett, filled with rosy language that say management ?expects fourth quarter earnings to be consistent with most anal cysts' estimates? and ?total pro forma operating revenue for November increased 4 percent over year-earlier levels?, etc. etc. Who is to believe these numbers? I remember the glowing ?As Good As It Gets? earnings results, raised guidance, topped expectations from BBY when the stock was at $52/share and THC when it was at $51. At the time, it seemed that there was nothing stopping the stocks from reaching $75/share. They were subsequently crushed. Why is that? Again, how can the participants continue to believe all the numbers, guidance, estimates, and all the rest blaring from the Matrix loudspeakers? The front page article in today?s The Wall Street Journal on Bristol Meyer?s earnings shenanigans, channel stuffing, ?make the number or else? attitude is a must read. What a collossal fraud perpetrated on the hopers who bought that stock at $70/share. Will the cycle of trust ever be broken? I doubt it. At least until the free billions of Keno chips dropped into the Casino every day dries up, and the Arena participants are snapped out of their daily mesmerized trance looking for the ?New Era, New Economy, New Bull Market?. More evidence of the bullish cheerleading hysteria blaring from the bullhorns and loudspeakers. Lead headlines from TheStreet.com: "Autozone's Earnings Jump 25%!!" Stock collapses in gigantic volume. "Ciena Soars After Saying Sales Could Rise!" Stock gaps up, then goes nowhere on a monster sized distribution on huge volume. "Heinz Posts Jump In Profit! Stock gaps up on the open, then collapses to yesterday's close. No mention of these technical "failures" in the headlines. What to Expect Next It looks as if we might go down kind of quickly the next three days, but the usual Options Racketeering combined with a year end jam job will push us back up one more time before failing, forming a double right shoulder on the QQQ and SPY. They are not going to make it easy for the bears. The Matrix is hungry for more hopers, and needs one more push to suck them in. Position Summary: New half long on MDG at $16. Still waiting for 1425 or better on the Nasdaq, or a lower 5-day ARMS reading before adding more shorts. We are 51% short, 16% long, 22% cash. Half Short: LOW at $42 KSS at $66 INTU at $53 C at $38 IBM at $85 TGT at $34 MBI at $50 NCEN at $26 Quarter Short: FRE at $68 CFC at $49 KBH at $49 LEN at $56 TOL at $27 BBBY at $35 COCO at $40 INTC at $18 DELL at $28 ORCL at $11 CSCO at $14 Half Long: BGO at $1.31 HL at $4.10 PAAS at $5 DROOY at $3.35 GG at $10 GLG at $9 MDG at $16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maximummark Posted December 12, 2002 Report Share Posted December 12, 2002 Congratulations on your earlybird PM plays, Mark...Would love to have 2002 highs smashed on the way to $500...the battle of the cartels...My favorite gold MNG..profitable, reasonable @ .99, up .11 today, high of $1.42...Personal Finance Chief Stategist Mike Berry high on silver: 1.) replacing lead in solder 2.) old standbys film, batteries, photovoltaics and energy efficient glass 3.) Anti-pathogen properties in fight against Legionaries disease, salmonella and E-coli 4.) Antibacterial catheter sheaths 5.) silver-coated, laser-readable security cards 6.) Possible replacement for banned arsenic in wood preservation 7.) Silver-encased super-conducting wire 8.) Pool water purification...He mentions SIL and CDE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted December 12, 2002 Report Share Posted December 12, 2002 Still laughing out loud, awesome tonight Mark. Running out to tai chi- can't wait to read the rest! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted December 12, 2002 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2002 Quote of the Day from Fleckenstein's column at Realmoney.com: "The dollar, however, was beaten with the ugly stick, both against the yen and the euro. It has all the looks of finally being recognized as the piece of confetti that it is. I don't think very many people around the world are prepared to deal with the consequence of a "tainted" dollar. In the currency markets, nothing matters until something matters, and then, whatever that is, it's the only thing that matters. If the dollar ever starts to cut loose to the downside, it will take literally a miracle to save it." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sweefraapp Posted December 12, 2002 Report Share Posted December 12, 2002 oex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShamPoo Posted December 12, 2002 Report Share Posted December 12, 2002 Thanks Mark The barking does seem to be approaching a crescendo. After telling everyone the recovery is just around the corner for two years now, what option is there but to continue with this line. End of the year expectations probably have something to do with the escalating level of happy talk. Repugnant as it may feel, the heightening volume of blindly bullish pundits is probably a good sign for bears. Whenever the market has gone down even slightly in recent days, one of the reasons put forth is geopolitical turmoil. But the market really doesn't respond at all to what's happening on the planet. There's always something screwing up somewhere and when an excuse for a weak market is needed, something remotely believable can always be dredged up. Possibly end of month racketeering will enable this market to continue up for a while longer. The Bulls portray themselves as patriotic idealists, but they are self-serving mercenaries. They know how fragile this most recent rally really is. They know that when they're good buddies start selling its pastime for them to do the same. Will read what Doc writes tonight and make a plan for tomorrow. Still see an elaborate acrobatic act being performed. All well choreographed, nimble jugglers, balancing acrobatics, tightrope walkers, all playing together on centerstage. It only takes one losing their balance to bring down the rest and curtail the act. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted December 12, 2002 Report Share Posted December 12, 2002 i guess you can use me as a contrarian indicator but, i see the market stabilizing in this range, moving to a new high and then plummeting in the first quarter.(spx) Still straddled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sweefraapp Posted December 12, 2002 Report Share Posted December 12, 2002 Email from TraderMike. Subject: TraderMike MarketViews Interview I was interviewed yesteray at http://marketviews.tv by Ike Iossif. Click and check it out. I made some important comments about gold and the market. Also note that until the end of the year we are offering a one year membership to TimingWallStreet for $450 - a 25% discount. The next 4 weeks are going to be among the most exciting of the year. We worked ourselves into a gold position which is now paying off handsomely and I expect the market to trade sideways around its 150 day moving average until the end of the year. Once that breaks it should create the same type of incredible short selling opportunity that we had last January and this past August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest soup1 Posted December 12, 2002 Report Share Posted December 12, 2002 I guess the bull camp will be all over stevie friedman's appointment by the shrub. THinking, I am sure, that as a good buddy and cohort of bobby;s all will be well. QUite humorous, actually, as if anyone willing to open their eyes would see him as the culprit, and the main architect of the policies that led us to the present debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted December 12, 2002 Report Share Posted December 12, 2002 They barely made it again, but could it be a set up? To look like game over? Then wham? Tomorrow should tell the tale. The hope of making it to Christmas is almost gone. If they don?t push the ?miracle button? tomorrow, good bye yellow brick road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted December 12, 2002 Report Share Posted December 12, 2002 Last nite I posted this thing was DEAD-although the point loss was only 50 and change on the Dow the markets are looking more and more like Mike Tyson just before he hit the canvas in the Lewis fight. The Dollar is falling like a stone so are the banks and GOLD broke out today in what looks like a shot to at least $350 if not higher. Now when GOLD which I liken to a canary in a coal mine starts to sing it's siren song-look for bodies to start falling out of closets. Something is very wrong in credit land and WE are about to see it-stay TUNED! Since I own GG and RGLD and they both hit all time highs-I am a happy camper tonite! Adding to my BIG GRIN is that futures are well below Fair Value as we speak and one of my shorts that turd MXIM is being sued for patent infringement by fellow turd QCOM plus the 10 day and 20 day m/a's had a bearish cross on both the DOW and NAZQUACK. Now for the last 2 weeks these markets have neither been bull or bear markets but BITCH markets as both sides slapped the crap out of each other like an old ROCKY movie but the BEAR got up at nine and the BULL didn't-looks like tomorrow could be a barnburner to the DOWNSIDE! Trade Safe! p.s. Mercy if you're out there?? tomorrow I take IBM's scalp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted December 13, 2002 Report Share Posted December 13, 2002 Well said HYPER- Maybe this time the miracle button sticks and the engine finally seizes up! Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mksloth Posted December 13, 2002 Report Share Posted December 13, 2002 Mark, you've outdone yourself today! That image of Greenspan getting a bubble bath from Andrea - that's going to stay with me for a while yet. Fabulous writing - truly impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buttugly Posted December 13, 2002 Report Share Posted December 13, 2002 "Initial jobless applications increased by 83,000 to a larger- than-expected 441,000 ..... Bloomberg News estimated claims would rise to 380,000. The government attributed part of the increase to the difficulty of accounting for the Thanksgiving Day holiday the previous week". "Difficulty in accounting" - what a joke! The explanations are getting more and more dubious. Retail figures holding up, employment weak. Not a good sign. VIX almost below 30. Possible head & shoulders in Nasdaq. Nasdaq back up to 1425 and then DOWN. I think Nasdaq will retest lows by February 03. http://www.saavycharts.info/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 13, 2002 Report Share Posted December 13, 2002 Well said HYPER- Maybe this time the miracle button sticks and the engine finally seizes up! Trade Safe! The bulls will be meeting, planning, and mapping a strategy for tomorrow. They are hurting, tired and cornered -- and as our friend hypertiger reminds us from time to time -- that is when they are the most dangerous. The Greenman always goes back to Rubin's playbook which is to get in the market early, get in big, and stay in. They lost a major battle today, but the war is not over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.