More Spinning

[wndysrf]

Mark?s Market Commentary ? December 11, 2002

 

Like clockwork, the Matrix Agents were providing the spin to calm down the nervous sheep.

 

Matrix Mob Leader Tony Crescenzi was dragged out to issue some commentary about the comments coming out of the FEED meeting yesterday:

 

?Fed also took care to indicate that the turnaround is in its infancy. It may have done so to avoid alarming the bond market about the possibility of future interest rate increases and to indicate that monetary policy will remain very accommodative in the foreseeable future. Note the Fed's statement on the economy and in particular the use of a double negative:

"The limited number of incoming economic indicators since the November meeting, taken together, are not inconsistent with the economy working its way through its current soft spot."

The double negative, "not inconsistent," could easily have been written as "consistent," but Fed members probably wanted to show that they aren't yet pounding the table on the notion of the economy's emergence from the weak patch. The double negative forces the reader to slow down and provides a sense that the statement lacks conviction.

That's likely precisely what the Fed intended. Also noteworthy was the Fed's reference to the "limited number of economic indicators since the November meeting." As with the use of the double negative, the reference to the limited number of indicators suggests that while the Fed believes the economy is improving, the evidence is very preliminary.?

 

So the new ?talking point? is that the economy is emerging from a ?soft spot?, and never really went into a recession. And Fed comments are dissected and analyzed to the benefit of the Riverboaters.

 

Can you believe this? This is actually worse than that idiot anal cyst recommending BRCM because the CFO was exhibiting ?favorable body language? during a conference call.

 

Simply amazing how the spin is reaching a desperate tone.

 

And Maria was squealing on the open today about pension funds ?buying stocks? and TrimTabs forecasts and more asset allocation and the January Effect and all the rest of the factors which were going to push the market higher.

 

But no rally can really start without the usual Invisible Hand stepping up to buy some futures, as the Color Commentator so accurately predicted:

 

?Al Green is back daytrading today, good spiking in the futures to insure that people learn to love the Matrix, learn to love the FOMC, learn that the day after the Soviet Committee meets and issues its edicts that it enjoys goosing the Market artificially.?

 

?Almost immediate gap filling after the open is the consequence as if a mega boobed hooker were dropped down into the post game shower room of the Dallas Cowboys. Interventionism is alive and well today. Al has booked maybe a few million in daytrading profits 40 minutes out of the open. Should ease the seasonal pain of having to Christmas shop for Andrea, 'the girl who has everything'.

 

?Was reassured to note the appointment of Pigmen Donaldson Duck to oversee the SEC. A man fully experienced in the ways of market manipulation is a logical and predictable choice to guard the coop. Now with a moron hovering over the nuclear go button, an international war criminal heading up the investigation of 9/11, a former member of the Phoenix Hit project in Vietnam running Homeland 'Security', and a convicted criminal from Iran Contra reviewing all our mail we can be comforted to know that things are now in good hands back in Washington.?

 

?Reality is mimicking fiction as Amerikanna sinks at least 3 more new chapters into Orwell's classic, "1984".

 

As we have doumented here repeatedly, the U.S. is the epicenter of speculation fueled by a virtuous Circle Jerk. The Circle Jerk has put Al Green and his Matrix in a box with no way out.

 

According to Marshal Auerbach:

 

?The country is now reaping the horrible consequences of Robert Rubin?s strong dollar policy, unthinkingly upheld by successive Treasury Secretaries as America?s trade imbalances piled up. The US has become hooked on short term global speculative capital that has gone on for too long and that has gone too far. There may be no way out.?

 

Mark?s Translation:

 

The Speculators, the HedgeHogs, and Da Boyz have been gaming the system for too long. With repeated short squeezing, multiple hedges, multiple option strategies, multiple layers of promises, and massive use of leverage piled up, the Global Speculative Sphere is now addicted to fast action and quick money. There may be no way out.

 

???..

 

?A sustained high exchange rate may lower earnings relative to unrealistic expectations and imperil stocks. America?s sustained courting of short run global speculative capital at the expense of almost all else has placed the US economy in a box: a sustained high exchange rate appears to have hurt too much and for too long, eroding the current account, profits, and ultimately stock and bond prices,?

 

Mark?s Translation:

 

Jamming the U.S. dollar every time it breaks to new lows will only make things more difficult for our exporters who are hoping for a v-shaped recovery in earnings

????

 

?A move to lower the exchange rate may pull the support of large cumulative speculative global capital flows. A declining exchange rate may cause withdrawal of critical mobile global capital flows, which in turn may also undermine the US capital markets, as well as complicating recently proclaimed Fed pledges to avert deflation by all means possible ? conventional or otherwise.?

 

Mark?s Translation:

 

Letting the dollar tank may help our exporters, but the Global Speculative Sphere may see its free gambling chips suddenly disappear off the Keno tables, which in turn will undermine the amount of gaming capital, which in turn may complicate Al Green?s effort to control the Program Robot activity necessary to levitate the dollar, stocks, and permanently peg the low interest rates.

????.

 

?In the end, relative prices will matter. Too rich an exchange rate will erode profits of US multinationals. Too rich a stock market valuation will create unusual market vulnerability. Too high an exchange rate will create current account deficits that may more than offset short term capital inflows, which will in turn risk a sustained retracement of the dollar and a massive withdrawal of short term speculative international capital.?

 

Mark?s Translation:

 

In the end, the house will eventually swamp the Riverboaters. The entire Global Speculative Arena addicted to fast action while ignoring the earth crumbling underneath will eventually succumb to Multilevel Marketing Pyramid dynamics.

 

In reverse.

?????????..

 

Position Summary:

 

Doubled position on MBI at $46. Avg. now $50.

Doubled position on NCEN at $22. Avg. now $26

 

We are 52% short, 12% long, 27% cash.

 

Half Short:

 

LOW at $42

KSS at $66

INTU at $53

C at $38

IBM at $85

TGT at $34

MBI at $50

NCEN at $26

 

Quarter Short:

 

FRE at $68

CFC at $49

KBH at $49

LEN at $56

TOL at $27

BBBY at $35

COCO at $40

INTC at $18

DELL at $28

ORCL at $11

CSCO at $14

 

Half Long:

 

BGO at $1.31

HL at $4.10

PAAS at $5

DROOY at $3.35

GG at $10

GLG at $9

[longOnUranus]

Let me be the first to respond...

 

When the Street begins micro-dissecting the tired edicts of a panel of constipated nanogenarian philandering megalomaniacs, we are truly in bad shape. Their age, by the way, is why they used the words "soft spot" instead of "hard times" . I could get bunch of frat kids from down the road, buy 'em a keg, and talk about whats coming down. The verdict would be the same: "This economy sucks. Have a nice day, dude."

[Drano]

And let me be the second.....

 

Please don't refer to that guy as Donaldson Duck. Donald Duck and his uncle Scrooge always played fair -- and remember, Scrooge kept a big vault full of physical gold. He would never put up with the kind of craziness we've been seeing. In fact, Money magazine even had a short article a year or two ago about Scrooge's investment principles. (Of course they got some of it wrong, natch.)

 

Spoken as one cartoon character in defense of another :grin:

[Guest]

Mark worte:

 

This is actually worse than that idiot anal cyst recommending BRCM because the CFO was exhibiting ?favorable body language? during a conference call.

 

I wonder. Can a CFO can be prosecuted under Reg FD for falsely exhibiting ?favorable body language? during a conference call?

[PileDriver]

says it all:

 

http://www.depression2.tv/chronicles/pop-1.html

[Fartpolio Manager]

2 significant pieces of news today...

 

#1) Costco downgraded ahead of earnings - now trading below the October lows.

I suppose the Yuppies are feeling so flush with their refi cash, they are shunning low cost Costco in favor of Neiman Markup .... ROFLMAO

 

#2) CDWC sees shortfall in revenues for the quarter - which means next year's forecasts are all wet too

 

Significant news from yesterday:

NOK reports stagnant revenues expected.

 

 

Fundamentally speaking, if PC sales are disappointing, cell phone sales stagnating, and Costco isn't doing it... we're in deep. So load up on Neiman Markup and put it in the drawer, you'll be just fine... ask your broker... lolol

[Charliss]

looks like q's getting sold

[midnite lightning]

Mark,

 

Great post!

 

Talk about desperation!

 

These guys look wiped-out. The pig almost went red in the last few minutes.

 

I was going to close miss piggy and decided not to. Miss piggy traded 3.1mil shares thru the day which is about average. From 4:03 to 4:13 I was amazed at the sell volume. I would guess in the 10-min window they dumped 6 to 7-mil shares. The smallest block which I saw just one was 38k.Two blocks at 78k. Average block going out the door was 190k. They were moving faster than I could count. There had to be atleast 13 blocks of 220+k. Saw at least 7 blocks of 330+k again they were moving so fast it was hard to keep track. There were about 6 blocks of 420k and the biggest one I saw at the end was 651k. Keep in mind this happened in 10-min. Miss piggy never has this much volume in 10-min unless the boyz club knows something we don?t. I?m willing to bet this volume won?t even show on tonight?s tape. Something is about to go down!

 

Major Piles,

 

Great link!

 

Heads up stoolies!

 

CYA

[Tchaikofsky]

Mark,

 

Great post!

 

Talk about desperation!

 

These guys look wiped-out. The pig almost went red in the last few minutes.

 

I was going to close miss piggy and decided not to. Miss piggy traded 3.1mil shares thru the day which is about average. From 4:03 to 4:13 I was amazed at the sell volume. I would guess in the 10-min window they dumped 6 to 7-mil shares. The smallest block which I saw just one was 38k.Two blocks at 78k. Average block going out the door was 190k. They were moving faster than I could count. There had to be atleast 13 blocks of 220+k. Saw at least 7 blocks of 330+k again they were moving so fast it was hard to keep track. There were about 6 blocks of 420k and the biggest one I saw at the end was 651k. Keep in mind this happened in 10-min. Miss piggy never has this much volume in 10-min unless the boyz club knows something we don?t. I?m willing to bet this volume won?t even show on tonight?s tape. Something is about to go down!

 

Major Piles,

 

Great link!

 

Heads up stoolies!

 

CYA

Mebbe this is why miss piggy was seeing some action:

 

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021211/manufacturi..._outlook_1.html

 

Reuters

P&G Raises Second-Quarter Profit Outlook

Wednesday December 11, 5:03 pm ET

 

 

CINCINNATI (Reuters) - Consumer products company Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE:PG - News) on Wednesday said it expects second-quarter profits to top Wall Street estimates, helped by strength in its healthcare unit and developing markets.

[Goldmember]

Can you believe this? This is actually worse than that idiot anal cyst recommending BRCM because the CFO was exhibiting ?favorable body language? during a conference call.

Favorable body language

 

Ah ha ha ha ha! The prick CFO was mentally adding up how millions he could recover selling stock and options into his Crapvision pump and dump. Just another Distribution pimp filling his own pocket at Joe and Betty six-pack's expense via the idiotic six figure portfolio sphyncters lapping up his piss!

[torah man]

this came by on klac in the morning, what does it really mean?

 

PRICEWATCH ALERTS - HIGH RETURN COVERED CALL OPTIONS

? ?-- KLA Tencor Corp. (Nasdaq: KLAC)

? ? ? Last Price 38.86 - JAN 35 CALL OPTION@ $5.80 -> 5.9 % Return assigned*

 

*For details on these types of investments and to receive a FREE copy of, "The 18 Warning Signs That Tell You When To Dump A Stock", go to: http://www.investorsobserver.com/i.asp?s=MU&c=1

 

by the link, i thought it means it will go down more????

[torah man]

this came by on klac in the morning, what does it really mean?

 

PRICEWATCH ALERTS - HIGH RETURN COVERED CALL OPTIONS

? ?-- KLA Tencor Corp. (Nasdaq: KLAC)

? ? ? Last Price 38.86 - JAN 35 CALL OPTION@ $5.80 -> 5.9 % Return assigned*

 

*For details on these types of investments and to receive a FREE copy of, "The 18 Warning Signs That Tell You When To Dump A Stock", go to: http://www.investorsobserver.com/i.asp?s=MU&c=1

 

by the link, i thought it means it will go down more????

i got the free 18 reasons and not one of the reasons mentions covered call returns.

 

well they got my email address now.

[buttugly]

In 1990 "Citicorp was on the Fed?s deathwatch and its stock was down to $8 a share. The major New York money center banks were crippled by loan losses in Latin America, leveraged buyout deals and commercial real estate. The savings and loan crisis, a trillion dollar Ponzi scheme rife with fraud and deceit, was in full swing. The high yield bond market had collapsed with the arrest of Drexel Burnham junk bond king Micheal Milken?s for securities fraud".

 

What a difference a decade makes. Today our financial sector are the market darlings.

 

But will we revisit the 1990s and is the Japanese experience relevant.

 

"Real estate loans in Japan went from an average of just over one trillion yen per year in the first half of the 1980s to about 7 trillion yen per year in the last half of the decade, peaking at almost 11 trillion yen in 1987".

 

"On the supply side, the willingness of banks to lend during the 1980s was very much based on the notion that land and stock prices would remain high. Indeed, during the height of the bubble of the late 1980s, there was a tendency for banks to increase the proportion of loans backed by land that was valued at increasingly inflated prices".

 

BOJ supported the banking system by "both maintaining a structure of low and stable interest rates and by extending "overloans" to banks, especially the city banks, so that, by "overborrowing", they could increase their volume of business loans beyond that permitted by their deposit base".

 

Ultimately one of the causes of the collapse in the Japanese banking system was "the collapse of land and stock markets".

 

http://www.levy.org/docs/wrkpap/papers/227.html

 

Yes the growth of structured finance and securization

has changed the face of banking. But this has raised the reliance of banks on credit markets. This has become another 1990 style Ponzi scheme, with everything being held up by MBI and the like. It's different but it's the same.

 

These paid advertisements regarding Bermuda are an ominous sign.

 

I think Marc Faber is right - the banks are the key!

[The End]

I'm soo bearish i shit in the woods. :grin:

 

Just kidding.

 

I'm straddled, still. I stillsee the possibility that we rally to new highs (above spx 954). If 889 is broken i will reevaluate. None the less, we is gonna shine in the first quarter.(us bears that is). Looking fur 700 spx.

 

Keep in mind, i have no idea whats going on. :grin:

[sweefraapp]

I got the Hershey squirts all over me today. A 10% price increase was leaked. It will only be 3%, turns out, but won't be good for my little ol' position. I knew it was consolidating after the failed take over, but it sprung the wrong way.

 

ORCL had some news too. On my hot list and wndy has it in his portfolio.

 

MXIM and CSCO puts remained green or neutral through the day. That was a little surprising.

 

I'm holding PM's for a while yet.