Guest Posted March 18, 2005 Report Share Posted March 18, 2005 dollar index close below 80 will be like a sonic boom if you yell "sell, market!" but everyone is deaf, does your order get filled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted March 18, 2005 Report Share Posted March 18, 2005 Occidental has hardly begun to consolidate it's recent gains... a .62 retrace might be nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted March 18, 2005 Report Share Posted March 18, 2005 Why you should own resource stocks... "Why are consumer prices merely creeping up while commodity quotes are surging? More and more, those raw materials are being used by Chinese (and other foreign) manufacturers instead of domestic companies. With their extremely low labor costs, the Chinese can absorb the cost of commodities and still export quite profitably. We have entered an odd symbiotic relationship with China. They ship us goods for dollars, and then invest the dollars in Treasury securities to finance our federal deficit. They don?t have a lot of choice - failing to return the dollars would send our currency into a decline that would sharply reduce both their exports and the margins of their companies. Further, it would push up U.S. interest rates, with negative effects on our economy that would further damage trade." By Robert Cardwell Stock traders almanac <{POST_SNAPBACK}> It's comforting to know that Mr. Cardwell has confidence that the continued investment by foreign states and nationals in U.S. Treasuries will keep the dollar from declining. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> The rest of the story... "While the U.S. and China have developed a co-dependency, the rest of the world is relying on this odd couple for what little growth it can manage. Japan oscillates between negative and slightly positive economic growth and Europe trudges slowly ahead. We have a negative trade balance with most of the world, while China is in deficit except for its huge trade surplus with the U.S. If all this sounds precarious, that?s because it is. Dire scenarios usually are not enacted, but occasionally they are. We?ll see some jolting readjustments sooner or later; meanwhile the system is likely to be held together with moderate inflation and continued intermittent dollar declines." Would you say he's realistic.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted March 18, 2005 Report Share Posted March 18, 2005 dollar index close below 80 will be like a sonic boom if you yell "sell, market!" but everyone is deaf, does your order get filled? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> What if everyone is dead? "There is no guaranteed way to protect yourself against all eventualities, but the best insurance is to hold some real assets or shares of companies that have hard assets. They do well in an inflationary environment and also during the occasional panics. This has always been the mantra of the gold bugs, who have been right every so often but wrong more often. The difference now is that natural resources are in a secular bull market that will last some time ? albeit with sharp corrections along the way." Robert Cardwell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted March 18, 2005 Report Share Posted March 18, 2005 Get out your Dow Domed House Top chart... "Point 23 being logged on March 4 at Dow 10941. At this juncture we anticipate a sustained retreat with the market first giving back the gains made by the Second Story of the Domed House back to Point 20 (Dow 10368). After the Dow stabilizes at that level, we expect a further drop to the neighborhood of Point 14 (Dow 9750)." Stock Traders Almanac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted March 18, 2005 Report Share Posted March 18, 2005 We may be at point 24 a small rise from here would be the chance for everyone to get out... then down to 10,368 for point 26 then bounce to point 27 for a possible retest of 10,600 then oops.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted March 18, 2005 Report Share Posted March 18, 2005 Miss Francis 'Fannie' Fubar, age 36, was run over by a truck today, smashed to fresh 4-year lows and left for dead in the Street. Fannie is not merely the second largest financial entity in the country, after Citibank. Via her mortgage securitization, she's an engine of Real Estate Asset Inflation, the motor of Bubble II. With a balance sheet larger than the Federal Reserve's, Fannie is arguably a larger creator of money and credit than the Fed itself. Make no mistake: Fannie is a vital keystone of the US Ponzi Pyramid economy. If this Engine of Asset Inflation is shut down, the Fed will face grim choices in replacing Fannie's firehose of credit creation. One option would be to ramp up flows through Al Leeson's 'FOMC Cayman branch.' However, boosting the 'back channel' from tens to hundreds of billions a quarter poses serious 'visibility' problems. But replacing Fannie's liquidity through the front door -- by accelerating the Fed's balance sheet growth from $50 billion to $200 or 300 billion a year -- would be a public clarion call for hyperinflation and dollar collapse. We can't know what the desperate loonies at the helm of the Ponzi Pyramid economy will do next. But the Fannie collapse is only the beginning, not the end, of a dismal process. Fannie is SCREAMING DANGER to anyone who will listen. The warning is not just about FNM stock. It's about ALL paper securities, including the dollar. The hour has grown very, very late. When the true state of Fannie's shareholders equity (or lack thereof) is revealed, an 'air pocket' could result. There's no need to be one of the bagholders. Just run like hell. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> W-O-R-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg (TSFKA 2faas) Posted March 18, 2005 Report Share Posted March 18, 2005 Don Quixote versus the windmill Joe Versus the Volcano Me versus beans http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.p...&st=0&p=414951& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardrech Posted March 18, 2005 Report Share Posted March 18, 2005 family friends paid high 5s ($580k) for a house 15 months ago now cant get low 4s($420k)... the original seller must have been high fiving ever since...that would be a funny gag if it wasn't so serious.. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> My crazy brother has authorised me to offer for sale his ($365k) condominium for a bagfull of walmart tulip bulbs--I tried taming his uninhibited greed for instant wealth by describing how inordinate his demansds were:so now he'll accept a half bag in payment with 4 plugs off zoysia as a commission beardrech How many Dutchman are needed to peddle a weeks supply of surplus Tulip bulbs?-- ====I dont know, but do I start by factoring in 3 FNM employees as a denominator? This, along with three polish accountantants,would be enuf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardrech Posted March 18, 2005 Report Share Posted March 18, 2005 Don't Worry, We'll Just Jack up Your Property Taxes Again.....and Again.....and debt disaSSter update: U.S. Public schools are currently in debt to the tune of a Quarter Trillion Dollars mostly in bonds floated in the taxpayers names to be paid by higher Real Estate Taxes plus interest wanna help? buy a Home then you can participate in the debt paydown whether you like it or not Public schoolleachers and adminaSStraitors get retirement pensions often 80% of salary, indexed to inflation, plus benefits do you? no? well, you still have to pay theirs or they will take your Home Pay up! <{POST_SNAPBACK}> These are the deputies who, along with their political superiors,are united in an unending task of distributing wisdom who also think that radishes can be cloned to grow tits-- beardrech ....Until ulimited power doth rise up and finally in an autoerotic financial frenzy devours itself-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tig 'Ol Bitties Posted March 18, 2005 Report Share Posted March 18, 2005 I'm looking at the most awesome chart I've seen in a long time, but I can't post it, sorry It's a 100 year chart of the inflation adjusted CRB Even with the dramatic rise weve seen lately, we're still around the 1930's depression levels.... UFB I've made a very crude representation of the chart so you can see what i mean <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Cheap energy and associated mechanical advantage- diesel/gasoline engine makes mining easy. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Commodities will always average at depression levels because they can't be capitalized. If one buys this weird idea then it might follow that capitalism is inflation. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Capitalism is deflationary by nature (and that is good). What we have is an acid trip or twelve away from capitalism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted March 18, 2005 Report Share Posted March 18, 2005 THE QUANTUM ACCOUNTING CONUNDRUM Obviously the market - unable to peer into the accounting black box that is fannies accounts is now betting that the cat is dead. I spent most of 2004 saying what a piece of garbage FNM was. Being provide right. Vastly undercapitalised and facing asset price deflation. Probably needs about $50 Billion in new capital to set it right. Expect Buffet will come in as white knight but only after the stock goes to zero. Will be called a hero for making out like a bandit. Probably what he is saving his cash pile for. Great work if you can get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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