torah man Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 Sorry Doc.... First lesson learned in 2003: BE READY TO COVER ALL SHORTS WHEN 5-DAY ARMS IS OVER 8.0 Motto for 2003: Cover shorts on next day after +200 point blast off if the market fails to reverse by 10:00am.... Ask questions later..... The average bear market blast off last year lasted an average of 5 trading days. Shorts can always be reloaded later. No more big losses on shorts will be accepted. I'm willing to take a buck or two of heat, and that's it. If it goes any higher, I'm out. Easier to go long in a Repo Jam market. The moves to the upside are much faster than the down moves. The future growth success of this site will be directly dependent upon keeping other Stoolies from getting squeezed in 2003. amen, by the time it was obvious we were going up in the last two jams, it was mostly up there already. In a bear market that is screaming, a one or two day pullback before the next plunge was the norm till recently. now after two days of normal jam we were up over 500 and after 5 days, up over 1000 (dow that is) too fast to get out manually. it is going down and i can't wait, but this time i will at least scalp some on the way up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 I don't doubt for a moment any sector can take off but reading the housing stocks as signaling a new mortgate boom is putting the cart in front of the horse. For three months as Doc shows mortgage aps are down. Sales have cooled, for new and existing. National figures on price for 02 I saw but can't link show less price inflation than we have been led to believe. Maybe the mortgage bubble will have another fly by but there is no evidence of it now. A better reading, if you have to have a story, is that the herd is assuming another one will come along. One thing we do know, that the herds ability to predict the real economy is down around zero. I would add to the story that it is more a momemtum play. Tech got hurt worse off the Dec 3 top and I guess that money is looking for new horizons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Direwolf Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 The future growth success of this site will be directly dependent upon keeping other Stoolies from getting squeezed in 2003. Mark...we thank you for your concerns...keep up the good work! direwolf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinger Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 Head and Shoulders about to break down on BEARX? Maybe the 200 sma will catch the fall. Hopefully... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sweefraapp Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 $spx weekly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sweefraapp Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 sentiment trader Thursday, January 2, 2003 8:30 PM EST I have referenced the NYSE TICK several times today, so for those of you who are unfamiliar, the TICK is simply the number of NYSE-listed companies that traded higher on the last trade minus those which traded lower. According to my quote vendor, the highest the TICK reached today was +1441. I show that 3,414 NYSE-listed symbols had shares traded today, so at one point during the day 1,441 more of those symbols were trading on an uptick than a downtick. This is extremely unusual, as I show only 6 days in the past three years with a high TICK of greater than +1300. Another interesting fact? Two of the top-10 TICK readings over the past three years occurred on 1/3/01 and 1/3/02. The TICK is commonly used as a sign of strength or weakness, but it can also be interpreted as a sign of panic, both up and down. Typically when we see TICK readings that are truly extreme, it is a sign of "get me in at any price" or "dump my shares no matter what". This is emotional trading, and very often precedes a reversal. I mentioned the high level of the NYSE intraday cumulative TICK in the intraday comment and model change today. The indicator, which sums up the past 13 half-hourly TICK readings, became even more extreme at the close with a final reading of +7503. This has only been exceeded twice since the bear market began, with a +7545 reading on 10/4/01 and a +7986 reading on 7/29/02. The odd thing about those two readings is that they came within 10 days of a major panic low, and our current reading basically came out of nowhere. The two prior readings were also followed by 3-5 days of retracement which erased the prior days' gains, before another major leg higher. The only other time since the beginning of the bear market in March 2000 we have seen the extreme conditions of a +7000 cumulative TICK and at least 70% in the price oscillator was on May 17th, 2001. After this instance, there was a small three-day rally before a more severe mini-correction which ultimately lead to the waterfall decline into the September low. If we relax our conditions a bit and only look for instances with a cumulative TICK above +6500 and a price oscillator reading of 65% or greater, then we get five occurrences: 5/17/01, 9/28/01, 5/14/02, 7/5/02 and 7/29/02. Five days later, the S&P was lower every time except 9/28/01, in the rally which followed the low after the market re-opened. The average five-day return in the above instances was -2.3%. If we take out the 9/28/01 occurrence, then the average return drops to -3.4% If we go out to 10 days, then all occurrences were again negative except 9/28/01 and 7/29/02 (which showed a very slight positive return). The average return after 10 days was -3.1% and if we again take out the September 2001 reading, the average return drops to -4.8%. We only have five occurrences here, so it's not like we can derive any statistically significant conclusions, but what seems apparent is that these occurrences of extremely high cumulative TICKS and overbought price oscillators tend to occur during explosive one-day moves. In fact, each of the five occurrences were recorded during one-day moves in the S&P of at least 20 points. It was also typical to see a modest one- to two-day upside continuation before the downtrend resumed in force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 DIREWOLF- YOU FORGOT "The primary trend is still intact!" You guys worry ME-too fast on the Bull wagon. Brian's motto is you can be wrong but not for long-I am a nervous long-the more of you who believe what i believe-the more nervous I become1 i make my money being a contrarian-pls don't agree with ME-Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 DIREWOLF- YOU FORGOT "The primary trend is still intact!" You guys worry ME-too fast on the Bull wagon. Brian's motto is you can be wrong but not for long-I am a nervous long-the more of you who believe what i believe-the more nervous I become1 i make my money being a contrarian-pls don't agree with ME-Trade Safe! Not to worry. Not all of us are jumping on the long train. I simply see it for what it is -- a sucker rally. You are being sent invitations to join the fun and games at the biggest casino ever. Neon lights flashing, music playing and of course dnacing girls. Come on it and put a few bucks in the slots or try your hand at Al's black jack table. The games aren't rigged and just look at today's winners. Everyone is making money so what could go wrong. I'm going to pass. There just isn't a free lunch. This market is cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinger Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 I'm looking for a pullback tomorrow before a continuation up into next week. Let's see what happens. 1000 should hold on the $NDX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 I don't doubt for a moment any sector can take off but reading the housing stocks as signaling a new mortgate boom is putting the cart in front of the horse. [....] Maybe the mortgage bubble will have another fly by but there is no evidence of it now. ditto. as a possibility, this is hovering between a 'V-shaped recovery' and a new dot.com boom led by oopsicrappedmypants.com. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 Sweef, that passage you've quoted is excellent. Please keep 'em coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 As I detailed in last night's Anals I simply do not see enough evidence that this rally is real or sustainable yet. That could change in a day or two, but for now, I remain extremely cautious. So far it's nothing more than a flare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buttugly Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 3 down years is enough, to unwind the greatest bull market of all time!? This won't be over until Al Greenspan has his "I did not have sexual relations with that woman". I was recently reminded how America's rich are like modern day ROMANS. We have this Swedish backpacker staying with us. And she was reading this magazine that was floating around the coffee table - "Luxury Florida Homes". She couldn't believe the prices on these Boca Raton/Palm Beach homes. I had to explain to her that these are mostly second homes. Yes many of the Swedes have a second summer home - but it ain't priced at a lazy $10M. (Pitbull - listening to Swedish radio? Can you tune into this in the US?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxxPain Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 I anticipated a New Year jam in a rare moment of lucidity and covered all shorts Dec 31. I was so drunk I jumped in bed with this ugly old HD and made the mistake of staying the night. Now I?m hung over and found out the hag stole money out of my wallet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 In Sweden, I doubt they lionize the ultra-rich the way we do here. I believe they are a more socialist society? Anyway, the glorification of the rich here - and the outlets which promote this - will not last much longer in the face of a serious economic decline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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