seamus Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 GF, i agree on your assessment of the depth and breadth of this current move...sold my long qqq position this afternoon and only hold some smh calls atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinger Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 Another good chart showing the channel resistance. This site describes today's action to a turd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 Kuwaitis withdraw capital from US http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml...01/wirq301.xml/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 3, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 Bare: These rallies have nothing to do with mutual fund flows. Mutual fund outflows have been nominal anyway. These jams are the result of HedgeHog battles, which result from excessive FEED and Repos. We will continue to rally as long as the FEED index remains in a parabola. There will be no real selling in the market until the FEED and Repo rally blows off and reverses, which could be months from now. Giant moves in homebuilders today suggests that another GSE reliquifaction is at hand. Stay with the short term trends.... No more squeezes for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 actually I agree, its just a typical brief relief rally from a ST Dover Sole condition in a bear market downtrend - no doubt. But its destiny is not being governed by "the feed". It will peter out just like all the others regardless of feed. In other words the feed really didn't start it nor will it end it. It may have been distorted (enhanced) by the feed but it's ultimate destiny will still be governed by the true non-feed market forces (ewave, cycles, etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 Hmmmmm! fuctures well below fair value! Me smells a bear trap OR the TRUTH? Bet on the Bear trap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 I agree B4, too soon to end here. I'm adding a few more screamers tomorrow on softness. Might as well have fun with this. If you can't fight em, join em - at least for the ST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinger Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 I've heard a lot of comments about extremely low TRIN today. Yes, it was very low, but that is the tree you're slamming your head against. Step back and look at the forest, the moving average. It is 1.45 and has turned down. Bullish above 1.4, bearish below 1.1. Trailing stops are a must! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 3, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 SHORT COVER ALERT Boyz will be pushing this pig hard the next couple of weeks. Specialists short ratio fell off a cliff today. 5-day ARMS peaked at 9.00 on Tuesday, has a long way to fall before we get into selloff territory. Was not paying attention to some of my shorts which ran away from me today. Something's up. Housing and mortgage stocks on a tear today. Same with specialty retailers that serve the housing market. Will be covering the following shorts tomorrow: NYT BBBY WSM COCO KBH LEN TOL CFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 Still hoping http://www.usatoday.com/usatonline/2002123...30/4737980s.htm Major pent up selling potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 Maybe someone has already mentioned it, but GREAT EXPECTATIONS, the novel -- I think it was written by, not Tolstoy, but by Charles Dickens. Just for the record. Am I wrong? Uh, yeah, I think that was the idea. Instead of Dickens' Victorian world-view, which called for happy endings (think "A Christmas Carol") we get the Tolstoy version, with anguish, remorse, suicide, murder, and injustice.... just your usual cheerful Russian worldview -- AND WITH GOOD REASON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 Drano- You beat me too it! Everybody- Listen to you people! You should hear yourselves! You guys are projecting a 2-3 week rally to what 935-950? and you want to load up? This is disheartening. :cry: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 I only plan to grope until sometime next week Doc, playing it day-by-day. Ick, I feel so dirty Not to worry - simultaneously building the next Stoolie Shortfolio and will execute & post soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubbadropping Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 As predicted last night, we got a bounce going. Too seasonal and too high a Trin reading. Fast money will always exploit the easiest direction. I think this said that this is the year Al Green goes down, either retirement or cardiac. Just a feeling. An old man in way over his head. That might just be the impetus for a monster down draft. We are in need of a geopolitical event which short circuits market gamers and shows them something they either haven't seen or were never expecting. Otherwise liquidification continues unabated. The Lizard King has shown that he will cut and run already and abandon any responsibility. The Jackson Hole speech was just that. I say he goes down this year. For now we are in a clear period of buying mania. It really has nothing to do with retail buying or mutual nonsense. It has to do with the Easy perceived direction for Casino money. These people are just running it up and down, they don't give a shit about valuations or look very long at charts. They are bigtime gamers and only care for the quick and viscious score. It is imperative not to attempt a philosophical stance against them. Its as silly as getting mad at a Robot. No point in it. They game this thing big up into mid January and the biggest spikes will come when things look most overextended. Why? Gamers run the Market. Gamblers dominate the Market. They play off the conservative rational of the rest of the crowd, thats how they make money in my opinion. Remember a typical Crack bounce sees huge single days moves, it never ever comes in bits and pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 3, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 Sorry Doc.... First lesson learned in 2003: BE READY TO COVER ALL SHORTS WHEN 5-DAY ARMS IS OVER 8.0 Motto for 2003: Cover shorts on next day after +200 point blast off if the market fails to reverse by 10:00am.... Ask questions later..... The average bear market blast off last year lasted an average of 5 trading days. Shorts can always be reloaded later. No more big losses on shorts will be accepted. I'm willing to take a buck or two of heat, and that's it. If it goes any higher, I'm out. Easier to go long in a Repo Jam market. The moves to the upside are much faster than the down moves. The future growth success of this site will be directly dependent upon keeping other Stoolies from getting squeezed in 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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