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B4 The Bell Tuezelday September 7


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:D Welcome to another week of trading, humor, insights, served with some political barbs and what-not at B4 the Bell! :D B4 has as its central theme short-term trading, lead by the astute technician Brain4. But it is also about any technical and economic issues that members think affects that - in a cordial atmosphere of a 24/7 international family lounge.

 

The end is here - or so says Sinclair at JS Mineset.

 

Please note that I did not say the end was ?near? but rather the end is ?here.? The end is I believe Tuesday, September 7, 2004 and will be noted by history as such.

 

In retrospect, this will be seen as the day after the Republican Convention bounce in the incumbent?s voter support but more so in the ?Feel Good? market effect that caused dollar shorts to cover simply because of UNDER capitalization.

 

The US dollar chart calls for a low as measured by the USDX at .6200 but the multi-year chart looking back to 1955 suggests much worse, IMO. The world is in denial of this technical reality based on strong fundamentals. But the ?Steel Trap" smart big currency traders know it. One in the US who is extremely famous and short dollars in the billions is actually on the INSIDE.

 

What does a break of the first magnitude mean to you? It means that it?s time to ?GET REAL.? To ensure your family?s security, an absolute minimum 10% of your liquid net worth should be in real gold - not paper gold.

 

In order to understand why the dollar?s technical position indicates a MINIMUM drop of over 50%, one has to look back in history to find a situation to compare it with. Furthermore, you need to find a situation where this occurred when politics, politicians, lack of fiscal discipline in the creation of monetary aggregates and flagrant financial amorality at all levels lead to the currency?s disgrace in the marketplace.

 

Registration may be required

http://www.jsmineset.com/home.asp

 

While I may not agree with all his predictions, I do agree that for all practical purposes, the fiat dollar can only decline and may not survive in its present form in the long run. Yes some paper money is a necessity, especially in times of chaos - but it is not a viable long term 'investment'.

 

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DJ 33 Dead, 193 Hurt In Clashes In Baghdad's Sadr City -Min

  BAGHDAD (AP)--U.S. forces battled insurgents loyal to radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr in the Baghdad slum of Sadr City Tuesday, the U.S. military said. At least 33 people were killed and 193 injured in the fighting, Iraqi authorities said.

 

  U.S. Army Capt. Brian O'Malley said several U.S. soldiers have been injured, but he didn't provide the exact figure.

 

Dow Jones Newswires

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DJ Russia Wants To Eliminate Oil Co Tax Breaks - Vedomosti

 

  MOSCOW (Dow Jones)--Russia's parliamentary watchdog - the State Audit Chamber - is proposing to eliminate regional tax breaks widely used by the country's hydrocarbons sector, the Vedomosti daily reported Tuesday.

 

  Under these subsidies, called subvention grants, regional administrations return taxes to oil and gas companies, which then, in turn, use the money to pay for massive infrastructure investment.

 

  Newspaper Web site: http://www.vedomosti.ru

Dow Jones Newswires

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DJ Wal-Mart US Comparative Sales Up 2%-4% In Pvs Week

 

  HONG KONG (Dow Jones)--Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) Monday said comparative U.S. sales in the week ended Sept. 3 were 2% to 4% higher from a year ago.

 

  In a recorded weekly sales summary, the largest retailer in the U.S. said the strongest product categories for the previous week were food, health and beauty, and household paper.

 

  In addition, "back-to-school sell-throughs continued to look good," a Wal-Mart spokeswoman said.

 

  The sales data for the first few days of September closely track Wal-Mart's most recent forecast for the third quarter. Last week, Bentonville, Ark.-based Wal-Mart lowered its estimate for third-quarter sales gains to a range of 2% to 4%, from its initial target of a 3% to 5% increase.

Dow Jones Newswires

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OPEC Leader Predicts Lower Prices

 

The head of OPEC predicted that the price of oil would soon fall, partly because of more production in Iraq. Purnomo Yusgiantoro, who is also Indonesia's energy minister, said resolution of the Yukos oil scandal in Russia, which is the world's largest non-OPEC oil producer, should also help keep prices down. OPEC oil ministers are to meet in Vienna this month to discuss how prices might be brought down.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/artic...8-2004Sep6.html

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We are slashing prices----all inventory must go----everything is on sale!!!!!

 

 

 

Saudi Arabia cuts oil prices

Top exporter seeks to cool markets

By Reuters  |  September 7, 2004

 

LONDON --Oil prices eased yesterday as top world exporter Saudi Arabia slashed prices for its westbound crude sales in an effort to shift the large volumes it is offering to cool world markets.

 

London Brent crude ended 61 cents down at $40.62 a barrel. Trade was subdued, with US markets closed because of the Labor Day holiday.

 

Prices fell as Saudi Arabia cut prices for October-loading crude to both the United States and Europe, following up on its pledge to give customers all the crude they want to try to cool oil prices.

 

Prices for heavier grades were cut particularly hard, as the kingdom tries to make them more attractive for refiners who are put off by their high yield of low-value fuel oil.

http://www.boston.com/business/markets/art...uts_oil_prices/

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Below is a table of the daily OPEC basket price for the past 20 trading days:

Date Daily OPEC Basket Price

06-09-04 $38.66

03-09-04 $39.12

02-09-04 $39.68

01-09-04 $38.81

31-08-04 $38.15

30-08-04 $38.48

27-08-04 $39.05

26-08-04 $39.02

25-08-04 $40.45

24-08-04 $41.43

23-08-04 $42.27

20-08-04 $43.16

19-08-04 $42.60

18-08-04 $42.07

17-08-04 $41.75

16-08-04 $41.70

13-08-04 $41.33

12-08-04 $40.76

11-08-04 $40.08

10-08-04 $40.00

Dow Jones Newswires

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Slip in demand lowers prices for seats on NYSE

 

By Philip Boroff

Bloomberg News

 

NEW YORK ? New York Stock Exchange members seeking to rent their trading rights outnumber brokers who want them, as profits decline at the world's biggest stock exchange.

 

About 60 members, or about 4 percent of the 1,366 total, were awaiting rental offers, according to an early August list kept by the exchange's membership department. As recently as 2002, the NYSE had a waiting list for memberships, which confer the rights to buy and sell stock on the floor. A member's stock-exchange "seat" rents for about $3,000 a week, down by half from 2002.

 

"Trading is becoming more of a video game," said Francis Maglio, 60, a Bridgehampton, N.Y.-based former floor broker whose wife, Theresa, put her seat up for lease two months ago.

 

Declining demand for seats is one of the NYSE's challenges as it approaches the first anniversary of the ouster of Chairman Richard Grasso over his $140 million retirement payout. Grasso, 58, tried to protect floor traders by limiting electronic trades that execute automatically. These trades have tripled since 2001 to 10 percent of the total at the exchange, where an average of $47 billion in shares changes hands daily.

 

Floor brokers and specialists who conduct share auctions rent the seats, which are owned mainly by individuals and securities firms. Seat prices fell about 50 percent in the past five years. The last one sold for $1.25 million in August.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/busi...yseseats07.html

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Press Release Source: Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.

 

 

Hovnanian Enterprises Reports 25% Increase in Third Quarter EPS; Achieves Record Financial Results and Raises Fiscal 2004 Earnings Projection

Tuesday September 7, 5:00 am ET 

Highlights for the Third Quarter Ended July 31, 2004

-- Net earnings reached a record $1.33 per fully diluted share for the third quarter, a 25% increase from $1.06 per fully diluted share in the third quarter of fiscal 2003 and exceeded the Company's most recent projection for the quarter of $1.25 to $1.30 per fully diluted share.

-- The Company earned $1.46 per fully diluted share, excluding $13.7 million in pre-tax charges related to the discontinuation of the Forecast Homes brand name and the extinguishment of debt, an increase of 36% from last year's third quarter on a comparable basis.

-- Total revenues for the third quarter increased 25% to $1.1 billion, and the number of homes delivered in the quarter increased 22% over the prior year's third quarter.

-- The Company achieved record net earnings of $86.7 million for the third quarter, of which 96% were generated from the Company's organic operations, which excludes earnings from acquisitions closed since the beginning of the third quarter of fiscal 2003.

-- Earnings for the trailing twelve months ended July 31, 2004 represent a return on beginning equity (ROE) of 42.0% and an after tax return on beginning capital (ROC) of 23.0%.

-- Management is increasing its projection for full year fiscal 2004 earnings to exceed $5.30 per fully diluted share, representing more than a 34% increase from record earnings of $3.93 per fully diluted share in fiscal 2003.

-- The dollar value of net contracts for the third quarter grew 34% to $1.3 billion on 4,173 homes, compared to $967 million on 3,498 homes in the third quarter of fiscal 2003.

-- Contract backlog as of July 31, 2004 was 8,501 homes, with a sales value of $2.7 billion, up 68% from the sales value of homes in last year's third quarter backlog.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040907/phtu002_1.html
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The Next Shock: Not Oil, but Debt

By DANIEL GROSS

 

Published: September 5, 2004

ITH oil prices hovering above $40 a barrel, experts have calmed frayed nerves by noting that today's services-driven American economy is much less addicted to the black stuff than yesterday's industrial economy. From 1973 to 2003, after all, the amount of oil and gas needed to create a dollar of gross domestic product fell by half. Structural changes in the economy have let the nation absorb the recent shock of rising crude.

 

That's the good news. The bad news is that other recent structural changes in the economy - the federal government's shift from surpluses to huge deficits, the national predilection for consumption over saving and housing prices that climb faster than incomes - have increased the country's reliance on another kind of fuel: credit.

 

As a result, the American economic ship, which has weathered the recent run-up in crude oil prices, may be more vulnerable to sudden surges in the price of money. If the rate on 30-year fixed mortgages were to rise from 5.4 percent today to 7.5 percent next February, homeowners could get walloped.

 

"Rather go to bed supperless than rise in debt," Benjamin Franklin wrote in Poor Richard's Almanac. Well, in recent years, American consumers, businesses and governments have been hitting the sack with their stomachs bloated and their charge cards maxed out. From 1988 to 2000, the ratio of nonfinancial debt to gross domestic product held steady at about 1.8 to 1. But recently, consumer, business and government credit has bulged like the belly of a contestant at a hot-dog eating contest at Coney Island.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/05/business...cb5e28160a4c720

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Push Comes To Shove

 

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Good Morning!

 

As most of you know I am back in business at a temporary location. Thank God that Florida was spared the disaster that would have occurred had Francis remained a Cat 3 or Cat 4 storm.

 

For those who missed it, and it seems a few of you did, discussion of politics and world affairs on this thread is permitted, but 911 conspiracy discussions are off limits. There are plenty of places on the web where those who wish can espouse whatever thoughts they want on that subject, and all kinds of sites devoted to whatever kinds of information, and misinformation, you care to believe about 911. At bottom, this is a stock market site, and while many are interested in this subject in a serious and thoughtful way, it also tends to attract the very few who I consider part of the lunatic fringe, I do not wish Capitalstool.com to be a platform for them and the hate mongers.

 

It is difficult to know where to draw the line, but I have drawn one, and I ask for your understanding and support on this issue. I am grateful to those of you who support this decision, and to those who do not, I ask that you peacefully co-exist within the framework I have suggested. If you cannot, then I request that you leave the site.

 

Tanks to all for helping to build the Stool into the best place it can be.

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