TheDeepBlueSea Posted February 5, 2003 Report Share Posted February 5, 2003 Colin Powell's speech tomorrow will be the pivot point for gold. The HedgeHogs are widely expected to "sell the news" in gold and cover their short hedges on the metal stocks. So I expect a dramatic pullback in gold, but the gold shares to actually climb. When the pullback stabilizes and doesn't collapse to its old 2002 trading range, the gold share investors will finally believe that the gold move is real, and I expect the gold shares to finally break out to the upside and take out the July highs. Silver should follow, since it is "waiting" for confirmation of the gold move. Your observation sounds the most plausible of any that I've read as to why gold shares are languishing w.r.t. the metal itself. Have been watching with a bemused look on my face as my NEM shares have essentially sat still while gold has gone exponential. Hmmmm, that's NOT what I bought those share for <_< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted February 5, 2003 Report Share Posted February 5, 2003 PHAT the philosopher-that was well said man! Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWave Posted February 5, 2003 Report Share Posted February 5, 2003 Brian, I agree about END. I haven't been a member that long, but it was obvious that he was/is a huge proponent of this site and Doc, Mark, SG, et. all. His post on Mark wasn't cool, but everybody can have a bad day. Regardless,I appreciated his take, as I do everybody else's. Any forward community/group needs all kinds of input. The bullsh*t will sink and the cream will rise. He also added some entertainment, and that ain't a bad thing either. Anyway's, I hope he comes back. It's really his choice though. JMO. BW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted February 5, 2003 Report Share Posted February 5, 2003 ka-ching, green all over the place today. My buddy COX is back for some re-shortin. Ditto for MCCC. These were my buddies back in the Spring and they just popped back up on the Vector radar screen again after a long hiatus. Aaah yes, the good ole days are back. (pssst, we're not even close to a significant bottom worth covering, wake me up when we get there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted February 5, 2003 Report Share Posted February 5, 2003 Oh, Doc is in fine, fine form tonight. Those are the Anals of old, the days of bold, shocking cmaps, wise discourse, irreverent sagacity. Go download your anals. Those of you who haven't subscribed, well, have fun out there, and good luck. Hopefully you won't be thinking of the 19.29$ you saved in the event that you find yourself needing luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted February 5, 2003 Report Share Posted February 5, 2003 For the first time in years, I have no opinion about the market. The downward pull of overvaluation is balanced by the buoyancy of depressed sentiment. No catalyst is in sight for either a crash or a recovery. If Dr. Irving Fisher were present today, I believe he would announce: The market has reached a permanently low plateau (PLOP). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted February 5, 2003 Report Share Posted February 5, 2003 The US Dollar Credit: http://quotes.ino.com Gold Credit: http://cdchart.innovative-software.com NDX futures (delayed) Credit: http://www.livecharts.com SPX futures (delayed) Credit: http://www.livecharts.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 5, 2003 Report Share Posted February 5, 2003 Mass red here today but the bad news is that stocks are now hovering around some pretty good supports. The cheaper golds have popped (daytraders?) but the pricier ones are fairly stagnant. I'm not ruling out a global bounce tomorrow by any means. In fact since I'm 50% cash atm would suit me very well. The puts I'm already in will hold through a bounce as downside inevitable. Ed on signalwatch draws attention to the rectangular formation on the daily DOW so could break either way from here.... Btw since we're getting into a few forecasts: I think we're gonna grind down for around 5 months with close to a 20% loss for the All Ords index. We've got off lightly so far.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted February 5, 2003 Report Share Posted February 5, 2003 the next major bowel movement is going to be to the downside. There is no doubt in my mind on this. None whatsoever. Dec/Jan was THE top (major) and its all downhill from here for weeks on end. There is nothing left to analyze. Its over. Shortfolio up 20% (margin basis) since 1/23. The prudent speculator will assume that the trend will stay in motion, short it and stay with it. A gambler will try to bet against it and lose. This is the best anyone in the market looking to make money can do right now. Just follow the trend. Its still way early to do so. Up is the exception, down is the rule. Trade the rule. Game it at your own risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubbadropping Posted February 5, 2003 Report Share Posted February 5, 2003 Doc, my compliments on excellent cycle analysis. I will be adding to short positions thru the week and looking for some serious 2 foot long evacuations coming to a toilet bowl near us soon enough. My frustration is around the miners but if Doc is right, it is T minus a week or so and counting before a good boner move there to new highs. Patience will reward in the end. Folks the trend is now afoot. What is the trend? When no earnings season winds down and there is nothing for PigMen to look forward to the indexes go into listlessness,then denial, then depression and finally require Shock Treatment following padded incarceration at one of the many intermediate bottom zones. best to all, I'm glad to see others are thinking contrary to the prevailing and already accepted military outcome of this War to Be. buddha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slothrop Posted February 5, 2003 Report Share Posted February 5, 2003 Simple Guy, are those impulsive or corrective waves coming up from 355 POG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted February 5, 2003 Report Share Posted February 5, 2003 Who talked about those huge gaps to the DOWNside, here? Did they get filled by that weird spike in the S&P after hours? Would SNOT that spike have cleaned out nearly all stops above the close tonight? Is there some news story that would cause markets to erupt upward in the works? Yep, some poor zipperhead with a stop at 948 got hosed. Bare, this move would have been to clear out the SHORTS... so if you're thinking conspiracy, think: big move to the downside coming. The floor knows the stops, and they ran each one up to 948. If they were trying to clear out the longs, the spike would have been down. Gonna be some ANGRY traders looking at their futures accounts tonight. Piles: I agree. No doubt in my mind that the next REAL move is to the downside. I'm somewhat expecting a short-lived rally here, but I don't plan on paying any attention to it unless the SPX gets back near 930. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted February 5, 2003 Report Share Posted February 5, 2003 Mr. Bill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted February 5, 2003 Report Share Posted February 5, 2003 check this out. Lots of pent-up selling potential http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act...roup=Home&aol=1 We'll reach these metrics again during the multi-year sustained waterfall decline away from the 5 year H&S neckline for sure. Hell, we may just be in the very early stages of that decline right now! We spent nearly 6 months consolidating underneath it, do we need anymore time? I think not. Patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metamucil Posted February 5, 2003 Report Share Posted February 5, 2003 vix breaking out of a cup-handle formation. More fear ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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