The Post Op Transexual

[Drano]

Futures are tanking. Is it on bad semiconductor news as posted by the Doze on B4? or is there other news I've missed?

[jickiss]

jickiss is back!

 

and

 

Happy 2005 to all!!!

 

and

 

your jickiss has just read everything posted on this most recent Mark to Market.

 

and

 

here is "a deal." Since money is still, essentially, "free," in Merica,

nothing has happened.

 

let's face it. bears were expecting, (your jickiss thinks), ever since the March 2000 top in the Nazz,

for any number of factors to develop, which have really not materialized.

 

Some of these kinds of factors were:

 

1. Money would cost 8-9% when used to borrow to Speculate With in Real Estate. This never happened.

 

2. Multiples on the Very Best Growth Stocks would return to, maybe, 20x.

This never happened.

 

3. Over the last 12 months or so, the decline in the US Dollar would result in interest rates moving higher on the 10-Year us government note.

This never happened.

 

4. Bears never thought that the "war on terror" would be bought, "hook-line-and sinker" by the vast majority, and that the vast majority would not care that large sections of the united states constitution could be, in essence, obliterated.

For sure, any expected reaction to the elimination of "rights" never happened.

 

5. Why go on? Everybody is tired.

 

So, your jickiss simply steps forward to say the following:

 

BEFORE THE YEAR 2005 ENDS, SOMETHING BIG WILL HAPPEN, SOMETHING THAT WILL RESULT IN THE BEARISH EXPECTATIONS BEING MET.

 

THE REASON THAT SOMETHING BIG HAS NOT YET HAPPENED, YET, IS SIMPLE: IT WAS NOT YET PROFITABLE ENOUGH FOR THIS SOMETHING TO HAPPEN. IN OTHER WORDS, THERE WERE TOO MANY BEARS, OR, IF YOU WISH, THERE HAS BEEN ENTIRELY TOO MANY INVESTORS READY TO GET BEARISH EVER SINCE THE TOP IN THE NAZZ IN 2000.

 

YOUR JICKISS THINKS THAT, FOR SURE, AT THIS SECOND, THERE ARE VERY FEW BEARS IN TERMS OF EXPECTATIONS FOR THE BROAD BASED US STOCK MARKET AVERAGES IN THE UNITED STATES. THERE ARE VIRTUALLY NO BEARS LEFT, WITH RESPECT TO THE BROAD US STOCK MARKET AVERAGES.

 

THE ONLY REAL BEARS ARE THOSE THAT WANT TO SHORT THE GOLD MINERS, AND, TO A LESSER EXTENT, THE METALS, GOLD AND SILVER.

 

regards to all!

 

Hold Fast

and

No Matter What Happens,

no matter who is right and who is wrong, short term, intermediate term, or even long term,

 

"Never Let a Friend Down"

[dozer]

In tonight's aussie paper, there's an interesting historical comparison to the current doolah problems....discusses the pound in 1930, and some interesting parallels with massive false econ booms in countries holding huge sterling reserves...i.e. India/Argentina then....perhaps China now?

 

--------

Wobbly dollar spells big trouble for central bankers

 

Vast reserves of a declining currency are bad news for Asian bankers

 

January 01, 2005

 

THE People's Bank of China and the Bank of Japan, as well as other central banks in Asia, are in trouble. They have accumulated vast foreign exchange reserves, estimated at more than $US2 trillion ($2.6 trillion), but almost all of these reserves are in US dollars -- which are rapidly losing their value.

 

All policy options for Asia's central banks appear equally unattractive.

 

The euro has been touted as the replacement for, or alternative to, the dollar. Some enthusiastic Europeans encouraged Asians to diversify their reserve holdings, but the same scenario may well be repeated with the euro in a few years.

 

Large fiscal deficits and slow growth may convince foreign exchange markets that there is little future in the euro, prompting a wave of selling, and hence losses, for central bank holders.

 

There is a historical parallel with today's concern about the world's major reserve currency.

 

The inter-war economy, shattered by the Great Depression of the early 1930s, offers a series of painful, but important, lessons for the present....

---------

 

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/commo...255E643,00.html

[DrStool]

Dharma-

 

Bravo! Very well said!

[DrStool]

SO how much does Mr Belkin charge??

 

30 large.

[DrStool]

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[jickiss]

jickiss is back!

 

and,

 

if anyone wants to think about the "big picture" a little more,

all they really have to do is to think about the words, "Mark to Market" a bit.

 

the movement of so called "derivatives" to the virtual forefront of all large financing transactions has created a massive illusion that it is no longer necessary to "Mark to Market" as would have been naturally required by any of the the correct classic risk-based schemes of financial valuation that had been prevalent for most of the years since the early 1950's.

 

the secret agreements (or treaty-derived arrangements) that have re-cycled dollars into us bonds and notes, which supports the ability to move, with no real protest, the means of production off-shore, vis-a-vis america, have worked magic in terms of the "mass mind" PERCEPTION of risk in the financial markets. jobs gone, risk gone, too. wow.

 

belief in real estate as a RELIGION is now virtually total. Where is the thinking priest who will nail the message on the door of century 21?

 

reliance upon deception has replaced genuine efforts to develop either savings, work habits and capacities, or production based capabilites that served well in the so-called middle of the last century. in other words, demand stimulation rules, and greed to consume is the final bet that always works, for greed makes the masses very easy to stimulate, (or to cattle prod, in the terms of one famous poster of the year 2004)

 

finally, "why." Well, the one word that is deliberately ignored is the "Why" word. Ask any trader why EBAY has been going up for 2 years, and the answer is invariably, "Look, it always just goes up, don't ask why, just buy it/trade it/own it.

this kind of "logic" is very similar to the logic that led major nations to major mistakes in the last century. But it rules in the American markets today. This has been called, "Don't Worry, Be Happy" here, last year. your jickiss thinks of its proper name as "Don't Worry, Stay Blind."

 

How many GTFO in 1938, when there was still time?

 

When will we see the day when it is time to Mark to Market, finally????

 

your jickiss does not know, exactly, yet,

but

your jickiss says, today, on the record, and for the record,

that the Mark to Market Day will be,

for sure, and for certain,

in 2005.

 

there.

said it.

[dozer]

anyone have thoughts about Fannie, from a 1-3 day perspective? From a cycle standpoint, it looks like it wants to creep up for another few weeks; but the shorter term cycle is sort of flatlined...

 

also, what sector best fits AMZN these days? Consumer (is that retailers?) or Internuts ?

 

what sector is SBUX properly considered in ? Or is it just its own private mania?

[Drano]

what sector is SBUX properly considered in ?? Or is it just its own private mania?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Overpriced luxury food sector, along with KKD.

 

Let's see, I can get a cup of designer coffee for three bucks and a Krispy Kreme for 75 cents, or I can go to the convenience store and get both for a little over a buck. Hmm, what should I do when money is tight?

 

Trick question. Answer: get Yobob to give me a cup from his stash, free, and stop eating those donuts because they just give me a fat gut.

[bearvest]

jickiss is back!

 

and,

belief in real estate as a RELIGION is now virtually total.  Where is the thinking priest who will nail the message on the door of century 21?

 

there.

said it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

I've always appreciated the fact that M2M had wonderful metaphors and analogies.

 

Jackiss, that was perfectly brilliant.

[bearvest]

jackiss:

 

Here's a chart I posted over at Stool's Gold on GG.

 

For your consideration.

[h2orush]

I think its a good idea to change CapStool to something more professional........

 

Hopefully, we'll draw in some more pro traders, HedgeFunds, and other experts to help us all make better trades, and get better ideas...........

 

I'll likely be scaling back M2M as well, as one of my resolutions is to treat my trading more professionally, and remove any and all market biases, sector biases, etc., and look for the best short and long setups.

 

Most likely, M2M will morph into a board which gives lots of trading setups and specific market observations to identify trend changes, leadership changes, specific stock ideas.

 

Gone are the days where we waste time looking for the "Big Trade' to the downside, and making fun of all the market machinations.

 

We'll just take things as they come, and let the market tell us what to do next, with or without manipulations, conspiracy theories, etc.

 

Reading stories about trading in the 1920's and 1930's proves that manipulations and scheming was much worse back then, where little guys like us didn't stand a chance.

 

Markets are always rigged, but now they are so big, its impossible for the rich elite to control everything..........

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Hallelujah! I've been waiting for something like this since I gave up the bear case in 2003...Never understood with so much talent on this board, why we couldnt consider and play the long side as well....Numerous people have been sent to the gallows for being the slight bit bullish here, and in turn it has degraded the quality of the site IMHO. Looking forward to a new start for 2005!

 

Full disclosure: Long STSI, RECN, EEFT, RWT, ALDN, WMS, PWI, and EASI.

[dozer]

noted, jickiss.

 

my own feeling is; this winter is 'it'...the time things start hitting the wall.

 

by spring, it'll be noticeable I think. Continued drop-off in consumer spending....will become too large and extended to hide. For sure, Feeder-FCB's will -really- start getting frightened as their exports to US continue to flatten and even drop week after week...

 

continued worsening in semi and PC sales will be too large and extended to ignore any more.

 

japan's exports to the US are actually -down- on the year....equals fewer dollars to recycle into t-bills, interventions, etc..

 

clearer flattening in RE, with even more cities where it starts to actually begin dropping; will begin to have an aggregate effect on mogauge....layoffs will begin in this sector.

 

Continued large-scale financial problems in China will aggregate to something too large to pretend any more that it's unlimited growth there.

 

Continued oil above $35 -does- have econ effects; even if not immediately reflected in SM....continued inflation week by week in food, clothing, etc.

 

and of course, continued increase of the Feed....which will bring on....what?

 

I think that wilder Fed moves will frighten the Feeders, not reassure them.

 

We know that the Feed's affect on the real economy, i.e. people buying things, is getting weaker with each month. This is related to people's carryable-debt levels hitting saturation. Income growth has actually gone -negative- lately....

 

I don't see any 'rally' in the doolah holding water for more than days at a time. This is different than a stock....the fundamentals really do matter.

 

however, doolah may not drop much further either. No currency on the planet is inherently sound today; and since recession will affect most countries with significant currencies, the competitive devaluation game may rule.

 

I don't have the expertise to judge how, if at all, that affects the SM.

 

And one final thing; 2005 is the year the Chinese are expected to un-peg.

 

That is a kind of "marking to market" in a way, isn't it?

[longOnUranus]

the movement of so called "derivatives" to the virtual forefront of all large financing transactions has created a massive illusion that it is no longer necessary to "Mark to Market"

 

your jickiss says, today, on the record, and for the record,

that the Mark to Market Day will be,

for sure, and for certain,

in 2005.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Word

[OldMan]

noted, jickiss.

 

my own feeling is;  this winter is 'it'...the time things start hitting the wall.

 

by spring, it'll be noticeable I think.

...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That is my (uneducated) guess as well.

Something has to give ... sooner or later ...

 

OldMan