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Doug Noland Returns


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No doubt that Doug Noland has been aghast at the current market conditions.

 

Every Friday, I trying to think up of what he'll say next.

 

Anyway, if he were posting here, this is what I came up with:

 

Yet another extraordinarily volatile week in the financial markets, as over-liquified and over-leveraged participants continue to attempt to game myriad trading strategies using Program Trading, Hedging, Momentum Boner Chasing, and other assorted accelerants designed to ?enhance? performance.

 

We are now experiencing extraordinary Bubble Dynamics in play with the GSEs, the central banks, and the Terminal Fed attempting to subvert the economic cycle in unparalleled fashion.

 

Robot Gaming of futures by Bermuda Players at the instruction of The Matrix has caused Program Trading to reach unprecedented levels.

 

New Era Views are being Bullhorned 24/7 on all cable channels, as the Matrix Facilitators are desperate to maintain a keen interest in protecting the acutely fragile financial system and the Bubble Economy.

 

The captivating issue of ?Daytrading? and ?Real Estate Pyramiding? has recently been garnering more than its usual amount of attention and commentary, with late night infomercials on Crapvision touting ?get rich quick? programs, sparking a tremendous flight to risk assets fueled by the dramatic monetary boom.

 

Unrelenting fascination with real estate, stock prices, autopilot commodity trading programs are typical patterns found at the Terminal ?Blowoff? Stage of the mania.

 

It has been fascinating to witness truly historic financial evolution over the past decade. Liquidity on Demand in Grand Excess. Chronic Futures Jamming, Aggressive GSE Paper Pyramiding, 24/7 Fed Bullhorning, Central Bank T-Bone Propping, has enabled The Matrix to master the art of manipulating markets at their whim.

 

Even the steepest trendlines of GSE Balance Sheet Ballooning, Semiconductor Stock Trajectories, Margin Debt, and Bulletin Board trading volumes are defended like there is no tomorrow.

 

Creating the illusion of a Virtual Guarantee of Continuous and Liquid Markets as far as the eye can see.

 

So when Kevin Jamdis at First One Out Technology Fund decides that the market has topped, all he has to do is hit the Dump Button, and he is assured of top market prices, courtesy of all Bagholders who have invested in GSE Promise Tickets.

 

However, the gaming of all this Financial Exotica in this acutely fragile environment is now taking a toll.

 

Unchecked leveraged speculation and unfathomable interest rate and U.S. Dollar derivative positions are being exposed, witnessed by the increasing amount of volatility found in today?s trading in the U.S. Dollar, Gold and Bond futures. No doubt that this action is creating unprecedented havoc at the trading desks of the GSE?s, HedgeHogs, and the Brokerage Firms who are the Key Abuser Credit Inflators attempting to hedge off massive arbitrage positions.

 

Credit boom euphoria has likely reached a climax today with the topping pattern of the homebuilders index. However, weakness in the overall stock market is not likely to be seen yet, as international speculators salivating over 5% moves in other sectors will simply rotate positions over to the top HeatMap movers on the SOX.

 

However, these Halcyon Days of Unlimited Profiteering and Racketeering of financial instruments is likely to come to an abrupt end, once Obliging Bubble Dollar Liquidity is suddenly reversed, and the Global Wildcat of Leveraged Speculation decides to turn on its master: Alan Greenspan, currently wallowing in the fantasy of The Brilliant Financial Master.

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Last night, projecting another SUPER BLOWOUT employment report, I taunted the Matrix to "bring it on."

 

And so they did. With revisions, about 125,000 new jobs, both in Sept. and October.

 

In early action, both SPX and Nasty were taken up to new 52-week highs (Nasty to 1992). But the market slid to close down in a late fade.

 

If you're bearish, this is ideal. A market that slides on "better than expected, beat by two pennies" news is potentially in dire trouble.

 

Divergences abound. One that I particularly relish was that the NYSE logged 463 new highs today, not a record but probably in the top 10 or 20 daily performances of the past decade. Yet the averages finished down in a final-hour slide.

 

Lovely. We'll be seeing more of this, I reckon.

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C-lassic!

 

When I first started reading Noland about 18 months ago, it was before I had put in the necessary time to understand GSE's, credit swaps, eurodollars.... hell, I didn't even understand how debt is priced. After busting some books and spending some hours, now I can read and understand Noland's stuff.

 

Similarly, when I first started reading M2M, I didn't necessarily understand what the devil was being said 'round these parts. But then, I put in some time, and now I can read and understand stuff... like your opening commentary! And it always makes me...

 

:lol: :lol:

 

Where was Bully? All the wonderful USG-fabricated bullhorning numbers in the past 72 hours couldn't make the indicies break the milestones everyone's been gawking since August or whenever.

 

My perspective is worthless, but I think this week's performance has all the makings of a direct-to-video Hollywood flop.

 

I'd like to see how this POS responds to bad news.

 

Bring it on.

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Weekly Losers List :

 

ACAP -38%, IVII -35%, PMK -31%, PCLN -30%, ULBI -23%, FHCC -22%, ROXI -22%, IMC -17%, NFLX -17%, LENS -17%, ACO -16%, FIC -15%, MOH -13%, DGII -13%, ATN -13%, CNA -13%, JOSB -12%, ELBO -12%, MWRK -12%, GRIC -12%, MXO -10%, PKZ -10%.

 

Weekly Percentage Gainers:

 

VYYO +75%, IMOS +66%, HRT +58%, ISEC +50%, FHRX +42%, RFMI +41%, LMLP +41%, CKCM +40%, GCOM +40%, ARXX +40%, CALM +38%, IMM +33%, PTEC +31%, EGOV +31%, NTPA +32%, AKAM +31%, INFS +30%, MND +30%, GGNS +29%, PCU +29%, GES +28%, ICN +28%, NOVL +28%, ENWV +28%, EMIS +27%, TTEC +27%.

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While trading I keep a window open showing what stocks are hitting their highs and lows for the day.

 

I usually only pay attention to it towards the end of the day.

 

Today the list of stocks closing at or near their lows was incredible

 

GILD

JNPR

SANM

VRSN

COMS

MOLX

COST

NTAP

KLAC

PCAR

EBAY

AAPL

DISH

TEVA

MSFT

XOM

MNST

IBM

LOW

IDPH

BBBY

BGEN

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All of the repeated adreneline pumping on the DOW was laughable today...the patient was dead, but kept convulsing every twenty minutes or so until the flat line and that high squealing tone at the end of the session. I had a splendid trading day...almost like I knew exactly what was going to happen. Shorted CFC at $104 this morning, Caught the bounce on NTES for a $2 scalp. Scalped HOV for a 50 cent bounce, Got out of my longs with a gain and loaded up with my favorite dogs for the festivities next week.

 

In case you missed the most important piece of data today...the most surprising number released today was not the jobs data (obviously no surprise to anyone). The big news today for Stoolville was that the level of consumer credit card debt was up THREE TIMES HIGHER THAN EXPECTED!!!

 

You can see the converging lines forming overhead...

tighter lending restrictions VS. pseudo-growth?

 

Can't wait to hear from Sphincter Boy (MoMo) to hear how he did today.

 

Let the games begin...Plunger

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Close Dow -47.18 at 9809.79, S&P -5.63 at 1970.21, Nasdaq -4.84 at 1053.21:

 

The stock market today drew little comfort from a much stronger than expected October employment report, and instead drifted lower over the course of the afternoon for a moderately lower close... As has been the trend of late, encouraging economic/earnings news has not elicited a solidly bullish reaction from the market with the indices at sharply higher levels... The Nasdaq, specifically, set a new 52-week high in early trading today, and its inability to move past that point kept buyers reluctant for most of the day...

 

============================

 

Nice drift! :lol:

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Wndy,

 

Up or down, don't ever stop writing. I don't know how you do it.

 

Check out FAR OUTS close ( FAR ). A breathless hot pick given to me at 10 am as it was hitting 30. That thing fell faster than a china mans pants surfing porn sites on SINA into the close.

 

We all mess up as traders or position traders being bullish or bearish at the wrong time.

 

This link is off topic but it reminded me of the PM that was sent to me earlier today. Just substitute the concept of art for trading. I did laugh my ass off when I saw this. Only one I didn't like was the last one on page two.

 

Lifes too short folks. The reason I like his site is because posters are allowed to express all views and as a matter of fact, most have been bullish lately and should have been that way. That's not say this isn't nuts though. To me the humor makes this site what it is. People are still trading and can disagree but if you can't laugh stuff off or go with your own instincts, thats an internal problem. It's too bad when it gets personal.

 

Instead of my upgrade of the week or Bullhorn Quote of the week I'll go with this....

 

http://maddox.xmission.com/irule.html

 

Ag

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Kudlow just said:

 

GDP and jobs arent important for stocks, earning and interested rates are that what counts.

 

Well, i bet my ass that he said months ago "if we get a 7% rise in GDP stocks will go up huge", didnt he? :unsure:

 

 

there was a post at the end of IDS, which said fall in dollar today becasue of "profit taking", what a horse shit! Euro moved from 1.1375 to 1.1545, that isnt "profit taking", every time Dow did fall a bit today euro did rise like mad, when stocks went up a bit euro did only stall with its rise.

 

If dollar bulls cant make more out of this double top in euro than they will get phcuked for- and backwards. The same counts for gold.

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in certain areas people are jamming into real estate likes its the last bus of the night outta the bad part of town. in more than a few instances, cap rates below mortgage rates and properties are selling super fast. as one "player" told me, "its the only thing left." having seen folks from 1989 ony recently getting made "whole", the next decade could be very interesting. if the market weakens and the economy falters, can we look for the FED to jam rates low via all means possible to ignite at least one more refi liquidity blast and support real estate values. values are moving so fast here, i can understand people why people get sucked in as they face the prospect of perhaps never being able to afford to buy a home in socal.

 

kinda SCARY

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