KeyboardProspector Posted September 15, 2004 Report Share Posted September 15, 2004 Keyboard- I'm a little dense, so I am having trouble following the point you were trying to make. If the Treasury sold cash managment bills, they probably spent the proceeds within the two weeks, meaning this money probably came out of the banking system and went right back into it during the life of the bills, right? I do not see that as a drain on the system, per se, except for the first few days. So the leftover unspent cash going back to the system would not be not an add. The repo to purchase is would be an add, but only as long as it is rolled over. I think the issue is still whether the Fed is increasing its asset base, and we know that they are, at an incredible, and relativelycosntant rate over the past 6-7 months. They do it regardless of what the Treasury is doing. I don't see a connection between the Treasuries issuance of notes and bills, and the rate at which the Fed monetizes. They just do it. As I discussed in yesterday's Feed report, the ponzi system in't putting out enough liquidity on its own, without the Feed, to stay flated. That's why they are pumping, and have to keep pumping. What will happen when the pumping stops, or doesn't work any more? Doc, Your point is well taken, hence the 'other side of the coin' point. So, if the Fed just rolls forward the huge expirations due tomorrow, the money will be passing through the bankers pockets to the public instead of the treasury's...which is ultimately pushed through the economy. I guess a really curious question revolved around the amount of Fed liquidity that needs to be injected to get an economic effect. The volocity of new money seems to be falling to 1.0. I hear all the discussion of 'helicopter money', as if the Fed is giving the money away, when in fact they are lending the money away, albeit at giveaway rates. The Fed is not generating wealth creation, they are generating consumption creation. One benefits the future, the other drags on it. Even the Treasury's massive deficit spending the last few years has been spent on feel good and flash in the pan spending, not infrastructure investment. Traditionally the Federal Government 'stimulative spending' during recessions has been on capital projects like highways, local infrastructure and other things that provide a long term benefit to the overall productivity of the country. The recent spending has been on things that do not provide any return, like paying iraqies to stay home, susidizing foreign militaries to participate in the coalition of the coerced, and private security firms to stand outside the emporors palaces in DC...... Getting a little political here, better move on..... :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted September 15, 2004 Report Share Posted September 15, 2004 Good Morning Crew- That post quoting John Snow makes me ill. To think that a moron is in charge of Treasury-says it all. We have a long and large window at the open that lasts 90 minutes, we had an inside day yesterday on contracting volume and the Astro continues to be miserable-don't be surprised when the wheels fall off-Helmets on, Buckle up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twignberries Posted September 15, 2004 Report Share Posted September 15, 2004 Once again scam week is taking shape as a choppy, go nowhere market. With Max pain somewhat below current levels, I would be surprised to see much more upward movement this week. With that said, one of the most reliable trading methods I know is to fade whatever bias the market had during scam week on Friday. So far, that means a tumble next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted September 15, 2004 Report Share Posted September 15, 2004 Meanwhile, back at the Foggy Bottom corral -- WASHINGTON (AP) -- With little debate, House lawmakers on Tuesday included themselves as part of a pay raise that all federal employees will receive next year. The cost-of-living raise would be the sixth straight for members of the House and Senate, boosting the salaries of lawmakers, now $158,100, by about $4,000 in the new calendar year. In 1989, Congress decided to make annual cost-of-living pay increases automatic unless the lawmakers voted otherwise. Sloppin' at da trough "Fifty trillion negative net worth? PFFFTT! We get it while we can! I'm all right, Jack!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted September 15, 2004 Report Share Posted September 15, 2004 Piggy fell down the elevator shaft more to come-watch 1120 we break that 1113 comes real quick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted September 15, 2004 Report Share Posted September 15, 2004 Barfing.com 8:20AM Three Strong Legs to the Economy : Business inventory rebuilding is finally beginning to be reflected in the inventory to sales ratio as it outpowers the sales pace. Inventory rebuilding has provided a boost to production for a few years now as the acceleration offsets some of the weakness in consumer spending tied to high energy prices. At 9:15 ET the read on August industrial production shows the vastly improved strength of business investment which has spurred manufacturing. There are 3 strong legs to this expansion -- inventory rebuilding, consumer spending and business investment as both fiscal and monetary policy remain quite stimulative. Briefing.com expects stronger growth in the second half than the first half of 2004. But then again in a "just in time" world created by our New Freaking Economy full of Techno-crap it migth be signaling a slow down in production dead ahead. BWTFDIK One other little issue tickling my brain cell is the now often repeated "health" of corpoarate balance sheets displaying oodles of cash all over. Now I could be wrong, but it sems to me as if the coporate bond issuance over the last couple of years has been staggering, especially as the MMF balances fell. So I have to question if the balance sheets are really much more healthy than they were. "We're rich!" "Uh, yeah but we're going to have to pay that all back plus interest." " Who cares! We're rich!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 15, 2004 Report Share Posted September 15, 2004 Good Morning Crew- That post quoting John Snow makes me ill. To think that a moron is in charge of Treasury-says it all. We have a long and large window at the open that lasts 90 minutes, we had an inside day yesterday on contracting volume and the Astro continues to be miserable-don't be surprised when the wheels fall off-Helmets on, Buckle up! Snow is no more in charge of Treasury than the White House spokesperson is in charge of US policy He's a puppet, and the strings are visible. They hired a loyal bumbling idiot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 15, 2004 Report Share Posted September 15, 2004 The though occurred to me, watching Aaron Brown's rant on CNN last night, that investors, both domestic and foreign, are about to wake up to the fact that the US is losing in Iraq. The last secular bear market developed over a period of war, with increasing public awareness that US was losing. But the dollar is up sharply today. So there goes that theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted September 15, 2004 Report Share Posted September 15, 2004 Barfing.com 8:20AM Three Strong Legs to the Economy : Business inventory rebuilding is finally beginning to be reflected in the inventory to sales ratio as it outpowers the sales pace. Inventory rebuilding has provided a boost to production for a few years now as the acceleration offsets some of the weakness in consumer spending tied to high energy prices. At 9:15 ET the read on August industrial production shows the vastly improved strength of business investment which has spurred manufacturing. There are 3 strong legs to this expansion -- inventory rebuilding, consumer spending and business investment as both fiscal and monetary policy remain quite stimulative. Briefing.com expects stronger growth in the second half than the first half of 2004. But then again in a "just in time" world created by our New Freaking Economy full of Techno-crap it migth be signaling a slow down in production dead ahead. BWTFDIK One other little issue tickling my brain cell is the now often repeated "health" of corpoarate balance sheets displaying oodles of cash all over. Now I could be wrong, but it sems to me as if the coporate bond issuance over the last couple of years has been staggering, especially as the MMF balances fell. So I have to question if the balance sheets are really much more healthy than they were. "We're rich!" "Uh, yeah but we're going to have to pay that all back plus interest." " Who cares! We're rich!" Because its always a good idea to expand just as your customers start shrinking? These guys are clowns. Consumer spending has just started to soften after 14 years of strong growth. Expanding at the beginning of a consumer slowdown is financial suicide. If the consumer had been retrenching for a few quarters maybe growing inventories could be a sign of recovery. The question for briefing.com is who is going to buy all this inv? If there are no buyers will business continue to expand? Why, just to have something to do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted September 15, 2004 Report Share Posted September 15, 2004 Yobob: Sasve your brain cell. The scam artist shills are LYING! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roidrage Posted September 15, 2004 Report Share Posted September 15, 2004 Oil down, gas down, euro down, swiss franc down, yen down, es down, 30 year down, 10 year down, beans down, gold down. The only gainer I see is the USD? Is everything being thrown overboard to grab peachbacks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted September 15, 2004 Report Share Posted September 15, 2004 One of the best quotes I hjave read in some time. "While not paying interest, gold is an "investment in historical truth." Being long the yellow metal is essentially being short Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve." http://www.lewrockwell.com/french/french22.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 15, 2004 Report Share Posted September 15, 2004 Let's Play NAME THAT LIE! The next oil trick is the oil inventories data, which is likely to state that a computer glitch is responsible for having misplaced a few million barrels in the prior three quarters, and now we are covered up in oil and won't even need any new oil for a month just to burn off the existing excess inventories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted September 15, 2004 Report Share Posted September 15, 2004 Blast Shields up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted September 15, 2004 Report Share Posted September 15, 2004 Good Morning Crew- That post quoting John Snow makes me ill. To think that a moron is in charge of Treasury-says it all. We have a long and large window at the open that lasts 90 minutes, we had an inside day yesterday on contracting volume and the Astro continues to be miserable-don't be surprised when the wheels fall off-Helmets on, Buckle up! Snow is no more in charge of Treasury than the White House spokesperson is in charge of US policy He's a puppet, and the strings are visible. They hired a loyal bumbling idiot. What do you expect? He's a former corporate CEO. Read a dozen "management pop psy bestsellers" a year ... and you'd be a doddering idiot too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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