GregFokker Posted January 14, 2003 Report Share Posted January 14, 2003 Thanks for all the education, Dr. B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted January 14, 2003 Report Share Posted January 14, 2003 by rights though, shouldn't we see a downgrade fest on the semis tomorrow morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted January 14, 2003 Report Share Posted January 14, 2003 Piegon, Here is where the term originated from..Nasdaq Heat Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buttugly Posted January 14, 2003 Report Share Posted January 14, 2003 Vesselin: I am probably getting mixed up with Gold and Bullish Percentages - here is what I was referring re gold. "More tellingly, the bullish percentage indicator for precious metals stocks is at 76%, with 80% being its absolute top, he said. The indicator reached similarly high levels in April 2001, and in February and May 2002, presaging temporary reversals in gold shares. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold & Silver Index is nearing the top of its 10-week range and faces "a lot of resistance here," Depew added". http://www.thestreet.com/_tscs/markets/aar...10062496_3.html Oh well - you know what they say about giving someone enough rope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
speculator Posted January 14, 2003 Report Share Posted January 14, 2003 The only measures for gold sentiment that I am aware of are: 1) The COT reports. It seems that the speculative traders are very Long there. But they aren't necessarily wrong. 2) CEF's premium to NAV. Currently 13.68; used to be above 25 at the May top. 3) The total assets of RYPMX. Currently around 125, close to where it was at the May top, but lower than the value at which it was on December 31. This may be useful once more data is compiled. http://www.clifdroke.com/gsvix/gsvix.mgi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted January 14, 2003 Report Share Posted January 14, 2003 yeah, thanks VB. you are truly appreciated. in other news....gotta be careful what utterances pass ones lips (or keyboard). JUST after i mentioned a 'rolling brownout' in IDS the whole grid here went down for 2.5 hrs. many towns in darkness. i'm hoping i said 'drop' or 'dump' right around the same time, or at least thought it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martialcomp Posted January 14, 2003 Report Share Posted January 14, 2003 Yep... Guarantee Dumblow and Jammer will be on tonight barking like Poodles to buy INTC. Maybe they will mark the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 14, 2003 Report Share Posted January 14, 2003 another ka-ching day. All six donged screamers still going up. What a joke this rally is. So much easier to watch it and laugh at the Crapvision types calling for a new bull when you're turning coin on it. Don't trade the trend until it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 14, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2003 Interesting setup here. Bill Murphy on LeMetropole Cafe says sellers of gold shares today will be "heartbroken". He predicts a huge gap up on gold any day. Based on the fact that huge speculative longs are battling the bullion banks, who are shorting the metal like there is no tomorrow, and the shorts are running out of gold to sell. Eventually, they will have to reverse and start covering. Goldman Sachs has already turned against their bullion bank brothers, and is now BUYING. Eventually the other rats will have to follow. Similarly, the oil prices make new highs, yet the Oil Service shares are getting pounded. Everyone pricing in an easy end to the war, or no war at all. James Sinclair says that Al Queda is mounting an assault on the U.S. Dollar, and that an unexpected huge drop in the dollar will be what catapults gold on its gap up. Could make out as Buddha's predicted "Market Clearing" event, from an area nobody expects. Sold some gold and silver today, HOPING to get back in at lower prices. But its dangerous to sell in a bull market. So I'll just have to take my chances, and hope I'm fast enough to get back in at lower prices, just when it looks like the scariest entry point. Of course, a "sudden" resolution to the Middle East situation could cause a huge stock market and dollar rally and gold collapse. That's when Al Queda pulls the rug out. With no shorts to cover. Sound like a mystery story? We shall soon see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mr. casual Posted January 15, 2003 Report Share Posted January 15, 2003 Thanks Vesselin, I might figure this TA stuff out yet. And thanks to everyone else for their contributions. Wouldn't recent history suggest that the models will open down and then blast off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted January 15, 2003 Report Share Posted January 15, 2003 Off topic: Fokker, who's stuck in Canuckistan with his retirement account, is looking for not-awful mutual funds available in the GWN. Rayok suggested Sprott funds, which look excellent, but all have big positions in precious metals. Fokker's already overweight that sector, and has found the following. It was a big winner last year, but isn't very consistent so far (to say the least): AGF Managed Futures fund Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted January 15, 2003 Report Share Posted January 15, 2003 Here is my take on the long term Gold picture. We can go somewhat higher, but there is SIGNIFICANT resistance in the area between the blue lines below. Would you go long a stock that displayed this chart pattern? Well, wouldya? I sure as hell wouldn't. The action after this upcoming drop should give a clearer picture as to whether or not the intermediate top is in, or we go slightly higher before a substantial pullback. My hunch is slightly higher. Now, if Gold can break above $360 and then consolidate above the 200 Month MA for a while, then I would change my tune. But right now, this is a selling area, as I see it. O'course, what do I know about the long term anyway. BUY and HOLD for me is about 5 days. :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted January 15, 2003 Report Share Posted January 15, 2003 Windy, Take a gander at a weekly chart of the dollar. It is VERY extended to the downside here. I expect a very tradable intermediate term bottom very soon. I am very close to entering a short Euro trade. I am glad to see the newsletter writers are getting to the hysteria level on Gold and the Dollar. Lets me know the turn is close at hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 15, 2003 Report Share Posted January 15, 2003 donged some CUB two days ago. Ka-ching. Short term I'd lose the PMs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted January 15, 2003 Report Share Posted January 15, 2003 Everyone SEEMS to be expecting a spike top prior to a rollover-be careful-I don't THINK SO! It could happen BUT today was the 3rd higher close in a row and most importantly the 3rd day in a row VOLUME has DROPPED. This is the kind of action you see before a sudden island reversal-the market struggling up while the buying is DRYING up. The KEYS to watch are yesterdays intra day HIGHS 8869 in the DOW and 935 in the SPOOS without a close over those numbers it's lights out! Tonite on the Island-over 50 of the top 100 in volume are down from the regular close-so the INTC flop (and it was-really a classic-earnings are down year over year but they beat-ya right!) is starting to sink in. I remain 100% short stop 950-960-Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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