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re VIX - didn't know that it was a purely 'implied' or theoretical construct (derived from integrating the derivative, if you'll indulge me)....thought it might contain an actual/delta component or smoothing factor or....something. thanks all.

 

boy pile that's an interesting couple of graphs. it looks like the total % of bullish + bearish advisors added together is decreasing. what third option did the unallocated 20+% pick last month? 'Don't Know/Unsure (But Give Me Your Money Anyway)'? :lol:

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I just read the fallstreet article that jtom posted

on the first page of the thread

 

Absolutely Diabolical.

 

The credit markets recently went to the edge.

Now they are winding up for a second run.

Doug Noland is correct.

 

2 Questions

 

1.What happens when you make money on your shorts

- I assume the broker (in my case Datek/Ameritrade) is not liable - but rather it is some other punter?

2. Your cash account with a broker (such as Ameritrade) i that a money market account - is it vunerable?

 

I would be upset if this market collapsed and my profits

vaporised into an Ameritrade black hole.

 

Who are the major credit insurers? I have a short on MBI, ABK & XL - any others?

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Common sense...the last Bear Market Rally as typical of all BMRs was fast and furious..multiple gap ups benefiting only the big boys and burning shorts asses..straight up with no consolidation ...finally after a few days of distribution a gap up open over resistance before resuming the major trend down..remember early Oct the big run below support at 775 early am ..reversal and off to the races..nothing left to prop the market... couldnt rally yesterday or today at support ...down hard and faster then most think ps GTN hang man coming ...go long at your own peril

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EL MAJOR TOPPO my friend!

amen to that. spx puts up nicely since two fridays back.

 

so: 17% + 51% = 68%. remaining 32% were....unavailable for comment?

 

funny, my girlfriend said that tyler et al seemed more relaxed tonight w/o maria there. of course, she was in a joey ramone tune, so.....well, so there. B)

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I understand that someone who is not a subscriber made a critical comment on my work. That's fine, but unless you are actually reading and following the methodology day in and day out, then you must be challenging the work on the basis of ignorance. I suggest that anyone so doing should familiarize themselves with the work before suggesting that it is wrong. Otherwise, it just makes me think that they are stupid jackasses. <_>

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I would be upset if this market collapsed and my profits vaporised into an Ameritrade black hole.

butt, you're not the first person to post re this issue. which seems like a slightly ominous and very non-contrarian indicator. i've been wondering about it for weeks. funny how many insurance contingencies are theoretical....

 

"what if we had a fractional reserve banking system....huh huh....and all the public wanted their money back at the same time? oH HO HO, heh heh.....jeeves, fetch us another brandy...."

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Hi Pile,

I've been following your market calls since this runup - your timing has been very good! Just finished listening to Arch Crawford, and the guy was very bearish! Basically what he expects is a continued decline from here into maybe mid-Dec followed by a bounce and then a severe selloff from early Jan into 1Q03. Are you watching closely at the Dec 19th date? Should I go 100% short now and ride it out, or go short now, cover around 12/19 and reload in Jan?

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PileDriver: my only concern is VIX. I didn't always

subscribe to Adam Hamilton's SPX/VIX theory

but I ignored it and lost $.

 

Yesterday you posted some stockcharts on VIX.

 

What is your take on VIX & VXN?

Here is a chart I've been playing with. Shows the relationship of the Q's to the QQV. I've got it inverted so that up is up and down is down. As you can see the line coordinates with the cash market. It shows the Feb.-March rally and subsequent decline. If you would have ridden this line you would have done very well indeed. Close examination shows it gives advance warning of direction changes. Whops! It looks like we just had one. :D

 

SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=qqq:$qqv,uu[m,a]wallnnay[d20011205,20021231][pc9!c5][iuh5,3!la12,26,9].png

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Guest aheadsup

I've been lurking for a few weeks. I want to say to those on the board who still maintain an overly bearish outlook that there might be one heck of a surprise waiting for you.

 

Consider the ramifications if the following scenario unfolded early next year: Saddam Hussein, on his own accord, might be exiled to a neighboring country where he will live out his remaining years in wealth and relative security. He will turn over governmental control to a contingency of Arab nations, monitored closely by delegates from the United Nations.

 

This unprecedented move will have multiple positive effects. It will ease tensions in a region embroiled in turmoil for over a decade; it will satisfy (albeit reluctantly and probably temporary) the Bush administration; it will install a much needed footing under wobly financial markets world-wide; finally, and most importantly, it will represent a non violent victory in the war on terrorism stemming negative world sentiment on the United States over aggressive foreign policy.

 

If you fail to consider this while trading you will unfortunately get what you deserve. Be smart and understand that absolute conviction is deadly to your portfolio.

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