Fear, Who's Got It Worse. (new Dr.au Daily)

[ThorAss]

Welcome to the new revised Daily Gold Thread sponsored by the good people represented here by your spokesperson Doctor Gold.

 

I haven't time at the moment for the complete treatment but I'll do it later. I just thought I'd get today's thread open and start a discussion.

At the moment, once the charts have been brought up, and various indicators analyzed the conclusions on where we're headed are extremely mixed. The argument seems to bifurcate over the question of fear, who's got it, and less about greed. No one seems to be saying, buy gold and gold stocks you going to be rich. Instead it's buy as a hedge, buy as insurance, protect yourself against a $ meltdown etc. For the gold bear (banking cartel) the feeling now is that its all about fear. They're forcing the price down not to make money but to protect their asses. I just wonder whatever happened to the other side of the fear/greed coin. Every time it gets flipped these days it just seems to keep coming up fear. It just depends on where it lands.

[Guest]

By one of the TA methods I use, I had an end-of-day buy on 12/3. Unfortunately, in this case it left a lot on the table...but it represents a relatively safe buy point.

 

Looks like $GOLD and the stocks are up against a rock and hard place (REALITY?) and something's going to have to give. Period.

 

The reasons to be bullish about gold:

 

1) Seasonal cycle low 11/19 to 12/11

 

2) TA buy signal on 12/3

 

3) Entering seasonally strong 1/2 of the year for gold

 

4) relatively high political risk

 

5) relatively high economic / market risk

 

6) overall macroeconomic cycle and pattern says UP for gold

 

So what will gold do? Probably go down. Just kidding. <_<

[ThorAss]

I'm afraid that even though I've had the whole day off work and my computer (maybe due to the holiday here) is running fast yet I'm almost out of time to post so I'll be brief.

 

The PMS Buy/Sell minor signal improved from +41 to +42. Looking weaker AAUK,FCX and KRY moved to SELL. ABX moved to Neutral. ASL,CALVF,CEF RIC moved to BUY.

CEF had a really good move and last I looked POG was moving up vertically. We shall see. I was hoping for a inside consolidation day for Friday but I'll take a close up north of the triangle. :grin:

My guess is that a lot of this move is related to but gold can move fast for whatever the reason. Never forget how small an asset class it really is for one which is so important. If the boyz move it'll be buy buy $400 in the blink of an eye and your gold stocks especially some of the juniors with potential could double in a week.

 

Is today the day?

 

[Charmin]

It's inflate or Die - just don't know just what are the implications in all of this Fed chest beating.

 

4-5 weeks off the low makes sense - looking for lighter volume pullback after all the recent action - probably inverse to mr. market next weeks bounce seeing were coming down to a 8/13 day low

 

Hey, I read ya

 

Bigtrends Dec. 2

 

we're bearish the Gold index from 65- 66 for a move down to 60 at least. We have a stochastic that's turned higher, negative directional momentum is strong and also being supported now by the average directional (trend), while traditional momentum is to the downside as well. Stop will come on a move above 68.0.

 

Guess it didn't work out for Bigtrends

[Guest]

Here is a 2003 outlook on gold by gold traders:

 

marketpredict

 

 

Possible $340 on war fears.

 

 

Current futures:

 

Feb 2003 > $325.6

 

Dec 2003 > $328.9

 

 

To the moon Alice? Doesn't look like it.

[Guest]

ThorAss and gold bugs,

 

Even though the bank cartel might try to depress the gold price,

a depreciating dollar may be just want the FED and the industry

wants. A weakening dollar would help close the trade deficit and

make U.S. exports more competitive. It's the only way out of the

black hole for U.S. manufacturing. A weakening dollar is a bone

for gold. It looks to me as if it may be short sellers who finally

push gold through $330 at the current rate of short covering.

 

Gold is bound to receive a lot of interest when it breaks through $330.

Whatever you do - hold on to your shares. The geopolitical situation

has not been as tense in a long time and a sudden collapse in the USD

may well be the straw that broke the camels back in the case of JPM.

 

I am calling the death of the financial economy and the rebirth

of the real economy. Gold is the only real store of value. It is not

a commodity. It is money. Who cares if the HUI becomes the next

bubble as long as you get in before the price of gold explodes.

The risk/reward on gold looks very appealing at the moment.

 

What are the chances of China backing their currency with gold?

One thing is for sure though. The peg with the USD has to be

broken before every shelf around the globe is stuffed with Chinese

goods. The trade deficit with China will never be closed as long as

the Renminbi is pegged to the greenback. As the USD depreciates

against the Euro, Chinese goods will flood Euroland and exacerbate

their already poor economic performance. China is the number one

contributor to deflationary pressures and they are growing like crazy!

[5thelement]

Does anyone else here think Gold's moves this week is due to emotions runniing high about the

Iraq war getting started this weekend and maybe the Reg Howe gold dervatives report

that Bill Murphy of Lemetropole Cafe is harping about?

 

I've been listening to Murphy since 1999 and while I generally agree that the gold shorts

are going to eat their shorts one day in the future, Murphy is kinda like the boy who cried wolf

just about every week/day for 4 years straight about gold going ballistic.

It will probably will happen but every time Murphy gets super excited aboout gold taking out

a firm resistance line, the opposite seems to happen. If I had sold every time Murphy gets

like this in the past 3 years, I'd have a bigger trading account by now.

 

Go here for a 3 day chart of the $US: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=i

 

The US$ just dropped to 105, again probably on war fears.

I kinda think Saddam is crafty than we take him to be and he will find some way to buy more time

or at least more wiggle room. Bush is going to have a hard time finding good reason to convince the

whole world that a war against Iraq is NOT an imperialistic move by the USA.

 

I think that GOLD has risen too fast this week to really challenge the $330 line and this is just

the self fulfilling UPSIDE breakout out of the triangle that every gold anal cyst has been harping

on for 3 months now. Everyone wants to breakout so the first reason to suspect so,

gold investors jump on.

 

When you think about it, we are just small fish hoping to tag along the ride of the big muscle

people like Soros who have billions to move markets if they wish. None of us here could buy

GOld or Gold stocks in enough quantity to affect a daily move but there are lots around the world

that COULD make such an influence if they wish to. Jim Sinclair keeps referring to Asian big wigs

who are secretly accumulating gold stealthily without overtly upsetting US Govt interests and

IF they are readly to send gold higher, they will. Who knows if this is really true but in general,

the Generals of Wall Street do accumluate while mums the word and then when they are ready

to send a stock higher, they start to leak to the lower levels and so on and so one until Joe Taxi

driver is buying from Wall Street firms that's recommending a buy when the stocks hit a 1 year high

and Joe Public is buying all of Wall Street's shares. More or less, the game is rigged AGAINST

Joe Public, and that's where TA comes into play to give you and edge, otherwise, you either just

get lucky or you get toasted.

 

While I like GOLD in general for philosophical reasons and fundamental reasons as I think it's insane

that we live in a world where central banks and Wall Street can lend money with only 1cent in it's accounts and the paper dollar concept is just that, the illusion of confidence that keeps any currency alive, meanwhile the masses are forced to accept dollars as payment for their hard earned wages,

 

It also seems nuts to want to trade any kind of stocks knowing Wall Street has set the odds to be

totally against Joe Public and Gold Stocks are probably more volatile than even Tech Stocks were.

 

Once again I'm rambling but it's just the "dream" of obtaining some financial freedom that keeps me

interested and hungry and the fact that TA and trading is a lot more intellectually interesting and

challenging than my software job is.

 

OH, I seem to have good instincts for knowing when to buy, but I find myself holding back due to fear

and then I tend to sell to early also due to fear.

 

IF anyone else has been through this, I'd really appreciate hearing how others have approach this psychological aspect of trading!! thanks in advance

[plantigrade]

5th, technical analysis is partly a self-fulfilling prophecy, a collective move. Big players will play technical, and we only need to live in their protective shadow. There are plenty of available so-called reasons for an upside breakout, most probably correlations or excuses. It is more acceptable to explain that gold goes higher because such-and-such says something,resigns, or misses, or bankrupts, or because some external face-haired villain disrupts the permanent high plateau of financial bliss, than to analyze and explain that the global financial system, and basic principles behind it, do not work. The true wonder is that it takes so long for everybody to understand the evidence, the amount of stupidity and propaganda.

 

I think you have to follow technical analysis, to understand and feel its collective language as an ally. Reading references helps.

[Charmin]

5th - if you don't already listen in on Tom O'Brien - they discuss PM since he has a gold newsletter - his view is we are in an ABC up - just wait to see the light volume pullback. I think most gold bugs would like to see the miners precede the POG in price.

 

http://www.tfnn.com/archives.htm

[ThorAss]

First of all, I'd like to say something about that marketpredict thing. So what? Their predictions are based on what exactly? And do they have an axe to grind? Are they talking their position? Forget it! And forget listening to anyone who talks about gold like it's a commodity, they're missing the point. As for these surveys in general, the only sure thing about them is they'll be wrong. Put a straddle on the number, it's bound to win. I trust them about as much as I'd trust a Fox Channel opinion poll.

[Guest]

First of all, I'd like to say something about that marketpredict thing. So what? Their predictions are based on what exactly? And do they have an axe to grind? Are they talking their position? Forget it! And forget listening to anyone who talks about gold like it's a commodity, they're missing the point. As for these surveys in general, the only sure thing about them is they'll be wrong. Put a straddle on the number, it's bound to win. I trust them about as much as I'd trust a Fox Channel opinion poll.

$340 isn't as bad as it seems. It's a 4.2% rise in the POG FROM HERE which might translate into another 17 to 19% rise in the XAU. This could also be translated into around a 28% rise in some of the bigger gold stocks, not to mention the speculative ones. And some lucky or smart ones are already sitting on 20-25% gains.

 

Seasonally there is a typical high for the XAU from 12/18 to 12/26 and this holds true for most data, espec more recent...increasing the probability of more upside.

 

$GOLD also has an 81 trading day (4M) high coming up in late Jan.

 

Downside is that the XAU is now trading opposite the broad market and it looks ready to try a run into Jan. $GOLD is also at the glass ceiling again....$325 area.

 

Looks like a contest between FEAR (gold up) an the BIG HAPPY (the markets up).

 

George will likely start beating the war drums again and still thinks he has the goods on old Saddam.

 

I'd say some backing off on gold and then another run up?

 

*Do I know what I'm talking about.....your guess is a good as mine.