K Wave Rider Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 JP Morgan Profits Plunge Indicated down over a buck so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HiHat Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 I don't think a falling Market jeopordises Bush re-election...... I think it does telegraph that Wall Street believes Bush will lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HiHat Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 I think Bush going to lose PA. and FLA. if so .............he'll lose. Bigger guns in Country may want him...................OUT you get more with honey..........than vinegar..........they may think we have had enough vinegar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 All you CFC players gonna have some fun today..profits down 47%.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 Hilarious! Remember when Putin jailed the owner of Yukos and we didn't hear a PEEP out of the White House in protest? ONLY NOW...after Putin's deal with China last week (obviously for the Yukos oil), the US State Department is SUDDENLY INDIGNANT about the theft of Yukos from its legal owner. Putin pulled a fast one, and did a deal with the highest bidder...which was obviously NOT Dick Cheney, who was more than likely the architect of the Putin take over in the first place! UFB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twignberries Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 I think Bush going to lose PA. and FLA. if so .............he'll lose. Bigger guns in Country may want him...................OUT you get more with honey..........than vinegar..........they may think we have had enough vinegar. My sense of it is that Bush is gaining momentum. Most of the latest polls have him pulling slightly ahead in the popular vote. Just at the right time too (wrong time for America). Momentum tend to build on momentum and will probably put Bush back in the Whitehouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jstrack Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 There is a long history of business and countries learning the hard way that they should not trust Russia. History does not repeat exacty....but it rhyms.....and again it rhyms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 Also have Masonite (MHM) and Mohawk Industries (MHK) on deck..a couple of big suppliers to the homebubblers..they should give some clues at this juncture.. Ryland Homes also reports after the close.. ASD already did report (missed) and has miles to fall http://139.142.147.221/StockChart_ImageOnl...NX&ref_rate=180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 All you CFC players gonna have some fun today..profits down 47%.. If The BOYS put 2+2 together, HD has the potential to fall straight out of the sky. Mortgage money/housing bubble on everybody's lips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jstrack Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 The higher costs to companies should put the squeeze on profits. The problem is that the US economic growth is slowing and that pricing power will again be weak. All additional cost cutting will occur at the expense of the economy. We are in a down cycle as far as I can see..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 Bush will lose the popular vote again but again be installed by the state election commissioners and the Supreme Court. Katherine Harris lives, the embodiment of evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted October 20, 2004 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 Basho posted this early this morning: Sorry to be so inexcusably late to this latest outbreak of the dreaded ?inflation/deflation? debate. Even more sorry to see that Yobob is planning to pack it in and head off to the fastnesses of Idaho. If anyone is starting a bring back Yobob fund, count me in. MH, your voice on this board has always seemed to me the matching bookend to Yobob?s . . . . equally spirited, funny, beautifully irreverent and intelligent while often drawing totally different conclusions. It?s been a great dialogue. Having said that ? and while I hasten to add don?t think anyone can say with certainty how this mess will unfold -- I do fear you may be taking a bit of a simplistic approach to this ?flation question. Credit has a supply-demand curve. If "interest rates rise," more supply of credit will be forthcoming because the yield is more attractive. Nothing about that process implies a deflation. Only widespread defaults, uncountered by gov't bailouts, would induce deflation. So many assumptions are built into this assertion ? and the ones that followed in later posts -- that I?m not sure they have a lot of analytical or predictive value. The most critical of these is the belief that lenders (and borrowers for that matter) will continue to behave as basic theory suggests when the macroeconomic environment is in a state of barely controlled chaos and no-one knows what real rates are today, forget about next year or ? God forbid ? in thirty years time. The Fed has a balance sheet of about $750 billion. If the wheels start to fall off the financial system, the sums involved would force the Fed to act on an unprecedented scale. Indeed your own views on the dollar and commodities seem in many ways to be premised on this very assumption. With net external indebtedness of $3-5 trillion (depending on how you account for ADRs), it?s also hard to be too sanguine about foreigners willingness to continue plugging the dyke. Again, I generally get the feeling your own market views assume an eventual meltdown on this front. Why then should we expect lenders to step up their activity when rates rise in the face of such terminal uncertainty? They?d already be struggling with a rapid ? and possibly breathtaking -- deterioration in the value of their existing assets while at the same time fighting to roll their liabilities, if they?re lucky at a rate that doesn?t have them losing every day on the spread. As for borrowers, as you readily acknowledge, they?d generally have more than enough horrors to deal with as the result of their idiocy to date. Now I know at this stage of the argument you insert the deux ex machina of the government and its handmaiden the Fed. Eye poppingly large fully monetised fiscal deficits, helicopter drops, propping up weak links in the financial system, monetising all manner of assets etc etc etc. Now, they may well try to take this road when the crisis hits, although I think matters may have to slide quite some way before they summon the cojones ? viz desperation -- to hit the full afterburners button. I confess my suspicion is they?ll find it was a whole lot easier to talk about all these powers they have at their disposal than to activate them in the near certain knowledge that success would mean the ground zero type destruction of the whole damn financial system. I have no doubt they would act to try to stave off the collapse of any essential girders in the inverted pyramid. Given the nature of the system, they don?t really have any choice. Small ones, no problems. Well, not a lot anyway. Make it a big one ? say a GSE for example or one of the major credit enhancers that enable the whole charade to still be played ? and things get a lot more complicated. Sure they could buy whatever amount of GSE paper was needed to stop the system imploding, but what then? Say $250 billion was enough to stop the rot, for a while anyway. Now the Fed balance sheet is $1 trllion and there?s another $250 billion in reserves floating around the system. What do the sellers do with this liquidity? Merrily put it to work out there somewhere again in the hope the Fed will always catch them? Deleverage a bit just to be on the safe side? Deleverage a lot to get out of what has become a crazy lottery? Put it into commodities or other real things? And what if the sellers are foreigners? After all, just the official holdings of agencies alone are about $250 billion. Do they leave the proceeds in dollars; take them home; decide to sell even more dollar holdings because the game is no longer worth playing? Eagerly hand over freshly earned dollars to be even more egregiously mismanaged? Hell, who knows? I surely don?t and that?s really my point. I don?t see how anyone can. It does seems only too easy, however, to imagine the first major bout of unconventional policy measures quite quickly leading to waterfall selling as players of all kinds try to reduce their risk profile in the face of growing chaos and the increasing possibility that there?ll be no end to monetary inflation. Whether the stampede would be to the short end, to cash, to real things, or simply to reduce leverage will remain something of a mystery until the fateful day arrives. One thing seems certain; given the size of the debt mountain, it wouldn?t take a particularly large percentage heading for the exits to present the Fed et al with an exquisite, immediate and quite possibly insuperable dilemma. We should also keep reminding ourselves that if it does start unravelling in this way the delightful, just in time environment with which Greenspan is so enamoured may not leave them much time to decide which weapons to roll out. No, I think we're truly in uncharted territory. Historical analogues are undoubtedly of some value as is commonsense and even some economic theory. I don?t think any of it however can fully prepare us for the magical mystery tour that lies somewhere in our future. For what little it?s worth -- and as I?ve said from time to time in the past -- my best guess leans towards the deflation end of the spectrum with most financial and real estate assets eventually getting slammed while many everyday necessities ? plus gold and maybe silver -- head higher. As for hyperinflation, I don?t think it can happen unless the authorities are willing to go the autarkic route; namely seal the borders, impose exchange controls and proceed to a form of socialism by reverse takeover. And at that point, I guess market discussions would have become somewhat academic. regards Basho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeakOil Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 Yobob1, WE LOVE YOU, MAN! Ditto. Prolly just one of those male menopause hot flashes ... We'll give him a week's 'time out' ... then start the telephone campaign ... Hey - I resemble that remark! Seriously, I hope you're right about that.....Yobob come back!! :cry: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 I think Bush going to lose PA. and FLA. if so .............he'll lose. Bigger guns in Country may want him...................OUT you get more with honey..........than vinegar..........they may think we have had enough vinegar. My sense of it is that Bush is gaining momentum. Most of the latest polls have him pulling slightly ahead in the popular vote. Just at the right time too (wrong time for America). Momentum tend to build on momentum and will probably put Bush back in the Whitehouse. Any room left at Chichutimi? Chabogama? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 Bush will lose the popular vote again but again be installed by the state election commissioners and the Supreme Court. Katherine Harris lives, the embodiment of evil. Ironically that was Gore's plan in 2000, but the exact opposite happened. Latest polls show Kerry could win the electoral college but fall short in the popular vote. we will know soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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