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B4 the Bell, Freedomday, Aug. 13, 2004


Guest yobob1

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Yobob:

 

I'd wager that consumption has little to do with pump price...more tied to greed (what they can get away with) and politics (what Cheney let's them get away with)

 

EARL GOING OFF

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Dow futures makin' another run at 9800..if they get thru..that should outta do it..

The next clearcut support after Dow 9800 is 7400.

 

Not a joke -- look at the two-year chart.

 

DJIA chart

We still have a bit of work to do between 9400-9600..once we get thru there, my stuff points to about 8600 as the next stop..maybe we'll just crash thru all of it..gotta get thru 9800 first though..

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We still have a bit of work to do between 9400-9600..once we get thru there, my stuff points to about 8600 as the next stop..maybe we'll just crash thru all of it..gotta get thru 9800 first though..

Was just thinkin' macro, K-wave.

 

Two ways to get there .... one fell swoop (this fall?), or a long "slope of hope" that grinds down for a year or two.

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Good article in the NY Times- United Airlines is broke but so is their Pension Fund it seems they were fully invested in Junk Bonds, Tech and a failed Mining Company in Ghana. Their Manager must have been trained by orange County-Huh! ;)

There's a lot of pension 'funds' out there that have eschewed their obligations in favor of high yield returns.

 

Since it is well known that the taxpayer will (be forced to) backstop all such failures, and that (somehow) executive bonuses are not a related matter, the moral hazard could not be more perfect and complete.

 

The real issue is what happens when all the debts hit at once?

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From the Levy Institute:

 

"But with the government and external deficits both so large and the private sector so heavily indebted, satisfactory growth in the medium term cannot be achieved without a large, sustained and discontinuous increase in net export demand. It is doubtful whether this will happen spontaneously and it certainly will not happen without a cut in domestic absorption of goods and services by the US which would impart a deflationary impulse to the rest of the world. "

 

http://www.levy.org/2/index.asp?interface=...asrc=fde318505b

 

Good weekend reading from some people who had this right all along.

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