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B4 The Belll Frieday October 29


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:D Welcome to B4 The Bell! :D

 

Trick or Treat? Bears were treated to another trick yesterday. The Chinese Central bank authorities jumped out of the shadows with an interest rate hike. While they produced a brief scare for bulls, it was the bears the ended up hiding.

 

Well what's really scary?

 

$200 Oil? It Could Be Asia's Gift to World: William Pesek Jr.

Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The e-mail's subject line jumps right out at you: ``Anyone Willing to Forecast $200 Oil?'' The report by Action Economics LLC explores the worst-case scenario for energy markets in the years ahead.

 

On whether the price of a barrel of crude oil will go that far, Action Economics Chief Economist Mike Englund is quite right when he says ``we suspect it's well beyond the willingness of most oil anal cysts to reasonably project.''

 

Perhaps not in the near future, but thanks to economic trends in Asia, can $200 per-barrel crude oil really be ruled out? No, says Marc Faber. One of Asia's best-known contrarians, the Hong Kong-based head of Marc Faber Limited has been managing money in this region for more than 20 years -- $300 million at the moment. He publishes a monthly newsletter called ``The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report.''

 

When it comes to oil-price trends, Faber wonders if investors realize just how bad things could get for bond markets.

 

``The fundamentals, long term, of the oil market are very compelling, extremely compelling,'' he explains. ``I wouldn't be surprised to see $100 or $200 (for a barrel of) oil in the next five to 10 years. It's not a projection. It's that I wouldn't be surprised.''

 

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=1...id=aoP8MaxIzWb8

 

Some money insights from Icky Twerp:

 

In his mind, the ends justify the means.

In his mind, he is ennobled and emboldened, by his bare-fisted wrestling with Destiny, his, ours, our country?s, and the World?s.

 

He pumps at 6%.(refer to the Anals).

 

What if I defined inflation or deflation as the difference between the GDP growth rate and the growth in The Feed? That the Neutral Stance was a Feed = GDP growth? If we said that the ?benign? Inflation rate was 2.5% and that the GDP growth actually was 3.5% then we could comprehend how a Feed of 6% would be considered the ?responsible? action of a Central Banker.

 

I see tonight that that is indeed what AG believes. He has a plan, a projection, and he has the courage, he calls it, to stand by that plan. He also has the courage to pump more, up to 16%, or even more in crises. He believes he has the forbearance to pump less than 6% when that is right.

 

This is a highly tuned calculation, which we ridicule as hedonics, which sounds like ? because it is ? a term describing the tortured English employed by AG to mask his intentions to hold to this diabolically simple plan. Blinded by this hubris, he does not recognize that in fact, right now, Inflation is at least 3.5% and the True GDP is no more than 2.5%.

 

Once the integrity of such a calculation is broken, the GIGO principle, caused by the exaggerated GDP, inflation will escalate geometrically, exponentially, irreparably.

 

MZM (Liquid money suppy):

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page5.pdf

 

sandp_future_large.gif?nocache=1098791938867.gif

 

nasdaq_future_large.gif?nocache=1098791981272.gif

 

Good Trading! ;)

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Today is GOOG $200 day. How far will they run it above before the rats jump ship?

 

I say $202.

 

And to think it was just a week ago that some crazy anal cyst set a $200 price target for this stock. Surely he will recommend selling it now that it is hitting his target...right?

 

NOT!

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IMPROPER POSTAGE????

 

Improper Postage On Absentee Ballots? Jeb's appointee didn't put enough stamps on absentee ballots to get them to the intended parties - knowing full well that the US Postal Service could be relied upon to leave them sitting in the dead letter file!

 

If this isn't criminal, what it? This woman knew exactly how important those absentee ballots were, and put too little postage on them intentionally. There is no other logical explanation.

 

 

E-mail reveals Postal Service may have mishandled Broward ballots

 

By Jean-Paul Renaud

Staff Writer

Posted October 29 2004

 

The same day postal officials publicly denied responsibility for 58,000 missing absentee ballots, an internal e-mail sent by the South Florida District Manager to his employees expressed concern that his staff was not handling ballots within the region properly.

 

In the memorandum sent on Oct. 26, Butch Parker also told his employees that staff seemed unaware of the procedures that should be taken when handling ballots.

 

"As of today, we have supervisors and employees that state they have never been made aware of the procedures to be used," Parker wrote to his employees. "We continue to find absentee ballots mixed in with other classes of mail."

 

The e-mail stated that absentee ballots with improper postage sat idle in postal facilities, instead of being returned to their sender.

 

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/sou...-home-headlines

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Bridge Over Troubled Waters

 

Starts To Look Shaky

 

Your Golden Stool, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is loaded. Even if you are not a goldbug, you should check out the Golden Stool. It's in your Anals daily. Take a subscribatory and download the Golden Stool RIGHT NOW!

 

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8:30am 10/29/04 U.S. Q3 GDP increases 3.7% vs. 4.3% expected By Rex Nutting

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) ? The U.S. economy grew at a less-than-expected 3.7 percent annual rate in the third quarter after growing 3.3 percent in the second quarter, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. Economists were expecting gross domestic product to grow 4.3 percent. Consumer spending increased at a 4.6 percent rate while business investment grew at a 11.7 percent rate. The core inflation rate increased 0.7 percent annualized, the lowest in 42 years. Real disposable personal incomes increased 1.4 percent, and the personal savings rate fell to 0.4 percent, its lowest level since the Depression.

 

:o

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The core inflation rate increased 0.7 percent annualized, the lowest in 42 years. Real disposable personal incomes increased 1.4 percent, and the personal savings rate fell to 0.4 percent, its lowest level since the Depression.

 

If you assume a more realistic inflation rate of 5%, then the economy didn't grow at all -- it's shrinking.

 

And that's what it 'feels' like.

 

"Personal savings rate 0.4%" -- :lol: :lol: :lol: -- and they call this a 'Superpower'? :blink:

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8:30am 10/29/04 U.S. Q3 GDP increases 3.7% vs. 4.3% expected By Rex Nutting

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) ? The U.S. economy grew at a less-than-expected 3.7 percent annual rate in the third quarter after growing 3.3 percent in the second quarter, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. Economists were expecting gross domestic product to grow 4.3 percent. Consumer spending increased at a 4.6 percent rate while business investment grew at a 11.7 percent rate. The core inflation rate increased 0.7 percent annualized, the lowest in 42 years. Real disposable personal incomes increased 1.4 percent, and the personal savings rate fell to 0.4 percent, its lowest level since the Depression.

 

:o

Consumer spending was fairly strong, but at a price of draining savings. The net savings amount includes capital gains, which are distributed unevenly. Most likely for most consumers net savings were negative, which is part of the reason why the MZM money supply chart hasn't gone any where for months.

 

How long can consumers keep spending more than they make, especially when energy prices bite harder?

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