brian4 Posted September 3, 2004 Report Share Posted September 3, 2004 Bought Sept 1120 spt ud puts @ $11.20 stop 1123 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orvack Posted September 3, 2004 Report Share Posted September 3, 2004 Doesn't it take more than 300,000 jobs/month just to be even ? This is your strong economy ? Government payrolls rose by more than in any month since June 2003. Bankrupt gov. hiring.. Financial services employment continued to expand with a net addition of 18,000, most in real estate... Sep.'04 US DOLLAR INDEX 89.43 +0.41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted September 3, 2004 Report Share Posted September 3, 2004 You can listen to intc ( who believe me , will not issue bad news w/out a fight) or you can believe the govt. Your choice. Intel opens at lowest level seen since May 29, 2003 Ignore at your peril ... TA calls this a bearish breakdown. When revenues fall, debt can't be serviced ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerMarket Posted September 3, 2004 Report Share Posted September 3, 2004 The trap is sprung. U-rate 5.4%, lowest since 2001 (this is the one Joe Six watches, and the easiest to tamper with). 144K jobs, PLUS upward revisions of the past two reports. CBNC: "1.7 million new jobs created in the past year." Uh-huh. With another 300K next month, the two million target will be met. The downside: Fed funds futures promptly raised the odds of tightening. Uncle Al now has carte blanche to do another 25 bips, less than 3 weeks from now. "Three steps and a stumble ..." re: 2M jobs. are you referring to some hedonistically adjusted number? fairly recent estimates were much higher: Job forecast: higher than it looks NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The White House forecast for job growth this year is even more optimistic than it appeared at first blush. When the Bush administration issued the Economic Report of the President Monday, several news organizations reported there would be 2.6 million new jobs this year. But that number was based on the difference between projected average payrolls for this year and last year. In order to achieve that number, a White House source explained Tuesday, the President's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) is forecasting about 320,000 new jobs will be created every month this year. That would be about 3.8 million in total, or about 2.9 percent higher than the December 2003 total estimated by the Labor Department. this is what we were told to expect in Feb 2004 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted September 3, 2004 Report Share Posted September 3, 2004 I think it's pretty safe to say the budget deficit will be going higher no matter who becomes President. The Dems and Pubs are now in some kind of a race to out spend each other. If we have high deficits at 1% interest rates, wait until rates get to 2 or 3 or higher. Trillion-dollar deficits are coming. Mad Al's bond/dollar pool doesn't survive that scenario, IMO. Bonds are going to be the 'short of the century.' BUT we have to wait for the "safe haven seeking" event that drives those bond prices to their final, unsustainable extreme ... and brings the deflationists out in force, with their burning torches and painted faces. Meanwhile, I sit motionless like a spider, sensing the little perturbations in the web ... Although the foreign central bank pool is more active than ever buying up Treasuries, it's potential effectiveness will greatly diminish as the US sucks up the last of the world's available savings to maintain its spending binge. Although I don't know exactly where that point is, when we get near it there will be suddenly be an 'unexplained' shortage of economic and market liqudity around the world - and interest rates will rise into a weakening economic environment. The G3 central borkers meet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWD Posted September 3, 2004 Report Share Posted September 3, 2004 Bonds are going to be the 'short of the century.' BUT we have to wait for the "safe haven seeking" event that drives those bond prices to their final, unsustainable extreme ... and brings the deflationists out in force, with their burning torches and painted faces. That is a thought that's been on my mind recently. On the other hand, when bond prices start crashing in earnest, what if the market closes? You could find yourself stuck in a transaction that cannot be cleared? This is from that new paper, by Bob Landis, on the Golden Sextent site: "With respect to the form the denousement will take, much has been written...on the subject of whether we face hyperinflation or deflationary depression as the prelude to monetary colapse. Both sides of the debate appear to accept the premse that whaever may transpire will bear a linear relationship to what now exists. The disagreement centers on the direction the line will go. But today's markets are fully linked by derivatives and technology, and they are patrolled by wolf packs of large, leveraged speculators not noted for their patient outlook. So it seems likely that the terminal monetary crisis will unfold on virtually an instantanteous and discontinuous basis, once the fog of statistical deceit and false market cues begins to lift and a clear trend either way becomes evident." "Fiat's Reprive: Saving the System, 1979-1987" http://www.goldensextant.com/SavingtheSystem.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purdymouth Posted September 3, 2004 Report Share Posted September 3, 2004 1120? how 'bout 1140? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearbones Posted September 3, 2004 Report Share Posted September 3, 2004 [Although the foreign central bank pool is more active than ever buying up Treasuries, it's potential effectiveness will greatly diminish as the US sucks up the last of the world's available savings to maintain its spending binge. Although I don't know exactly where that point is, when we get near it there will be suddenly be an 'unexplained' shortage of economic and market liqudity around the world - and interest rates will rise into a weakening economic environment. Currently, the U.S. uses 79% of the world's surplus capital, a monstrous sum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted September 3, 2004 Report Share Posted September 3, 2004 ISM report in 5 minutes-should be a mover! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orvack Posted September 3, 2004 Report Share Posted September 3, 2004 DJ * US ISM Aug Non-Mfg Business Index 58.2 Vs Jul 64.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bullseatshitndie Posted September 3, 2004 Report Share Posted September 3, 2004 Don't know weather you caught Uncle Harvey-Jack Perougian on Schlock Box after the Jobs announcement his pores were opening and closing and he was saying we have to go over the household survey cuz there MUST be more Jobs that were not counted. saw it, also saw some economist on(didnt' catch hsi name). he started to blame the way the survey was conducted as to way more jobs werent' created liesman stopped him dead in his tracks though, which surprised me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted September 3, 2004 Report Share Posted September 3, 2004 [Although the foreign central bank pool is more active than ever buying up Treasuries, it's potential effectiveness will greatly diminish as the US sucks up the last of the world's available savings to maintain its spending binge. Although I don't know exactly where that point is, when we get near it there will be suddenly be an 'unexplained' shortage of economic and market liqudity around the world - and interest rates will rise into a weakening economic environment. Currently, the U.S. uses 79% of the world's surplus capital, a monstrous sum. "America No. 1! World War IV! Errr ... whatever" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted September 3, 2004 Report Share Posted September 3, 2004 Shorting financials with both hands. This looks like distribution spike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orvack Posted September 3, 2004 Report Share Posted September 3, 2004 DJ * US ISM Aug Non-Mfg Business Index 58.2 Vs Jul 64.8 62 was revised downward expected number... We're turning the corner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted September 3, 2004 Report Share Posted September 3, 2004 we have turned the corner. However you do not want to know the what lurks beyond said corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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