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13k Party hats in hand,15k hats already being fitted....


  

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Also, i should mention, people seem to have forgotten that the market can go down. A colleague of mine bought apple last year around $350. Comes into my office the other day asking if I thought it would reach $500. I said, probably will. After complementing on his nice trade, I asked him if he would consider selling some of the stock around $500. The answer.... NO! I'd get killed in taxes.

 

How many times i heard this in 1999 and 2007, I lost count.

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Yesterday I pulled the trigger and sold all my equity mutual funds in my IRA. I'm not a big day trader of my IRA... last time I made such a large move was May 2007. I'm also not the great prognosticator, but do feel there are some similarities at least in sentiment to 2007. Greed seems to have taken over once again, blindly ignoring any risk, and fully accepting the fed is going to save us... plus it is an election year. I'm probably way early but I slept very well last night.

 

Just an observation

 

But when the market is in bull mode it is best to go along for the ride (it's 3 years and counting now)

 

Your reaction is not surprising though, as I still suffer from this behaviour (but I am trying to cure myself through self-help :blush: )

 

When the market is going up -- folks with a cautious or Bearish disposition, and generally speaking folks that frequent this board, tend to tout the following when the market is in bull mode:

 

  • This thing is done
  • We're going to collapse any day now
  • The market is overbought
  • Yada, Yada, Yada

 

Yet the thing just keeps going up -- with a breather here and there

 

And another epic run is missed

 

Don't believe me? Just scan through the blathering nonsense that was being posted here by in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006,...

 

Same old, same old

 

Alternatively, these same folks are the ones that can never pull the trigger and buy when things are going down

 

  • This thing is going to zero
  • Why buy now, it'll be cheaper tomorrow
  • Wow! Stocks are getting crushed
  • Yada, Yada, Yada

_________________

 

In the end, as long as you can sleep at night

 

And although it may not be possible in many IRA accounts -- you can always sell the stock and buy some calls in case the thing keeps ramping

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Also, i should mention, people seem to have forgotten that the market can go down. A colleague of mine bought apple last year around $350. Comes into my office the other day asking if I thought it would reach $500. I said, probably will. After complementing on his nice trade, I asked him if he would consider selling some of the stock around $500. The answer.... NO! I'd get killed in taxes.

 

How many times i heard this in 1999 and 2007, I lost count.

 

Well depending on "when" last year, that gain is going to drop into the long term bucket at some point

 

This just may be the last year for 15% on long term cap gains

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Also, i should mention, people seem to have forgotten that the market can go down. A colleague of mine bought apple last year around $350. Comes into my office the other day asking if I thought it would reach $500. I said, probably will. After complementing on his nice trade, I asked him if he would consider selling some of the stock around $500. The answer.... NO! I'd get killed in taxes.

 

How many times i heard this in 1999 and 2007, I lost count.

 

 

Long term capital gains I presume?

 

I get the same response from some people I know who work for First Solar (FSLR). Several months ago, I sent several of them an update on their company stock, which they get every year in stock options. I mentioned that FSLR looked like it could get to 170ish and that would be a great time to sell, because, in my humble opinion, it would never get above it and would, most likely, never see such levels again. Anyway, most of them didn't sell. The common theme was taxes. Now, just a short time later, the stock is worth around 40 dollars per share.

 

 

Now, they are holding waiting for it to go back up.

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I find it harder to hold on to the dongs in the last stages of the bull market which usually are the most irrationally exuberant (and most profitable), see the mid 2006 - mid 2007 ramp.

 

It was a known variable for everyone that wasn't analphabet that housing was heading for serious trouble as early as 2005. Still they ramped those stocks up, blowing up the shorts that had "rational" plays in them... further exacerbating the rally with forced buys.

 

It's not trivial to have the right view and also time the trade correctly and/or hold on to the trade knowing that you'll get "acres of diamonds" eventually :lol:

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Yeah, I agree with you all-- i'm definitely not putting huge shorts on this thing. I think it does go a bit higher-- Doc's 1450 seems reasonable. I still plan on playing some of this irrational exuberance / weimer run in the trading acct. just didn't want to sit on 5 mutual funds in my IRA that all own crapple.

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China makes an emergency Bank Reserve Ratio cut.

 

"China is seen making more cuts to banks’ reserve requirements to fuel lending and sustain economic growth as the housing market cools and Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis weighs on exports. "

 

"A 50 basis-point cut may add 400 billion yuan ($63 billion) to the financial system, according to Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. (ANZ) UBS AG says the move frees up about 350 billion yuan and may have been triggered by tight interbank liquidity. The previous reduction was the first since 2008. "

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-18/china-cuts-banks-reserve-ratios-a-second-time-as-europe-threatens-growth.html

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BBC news video with images of the fake bonds

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17080039

 

I like the treaty of versailles boxes, it gives a nice touch to the hoax.

 

Didn't we live this story 3 or 4 years ago. I guess it's a new story but it's just like the last one. It sounds sinister but the Treasury issued its last bearer bond around 1983. Anybody buying such bonds or taking them as collateral is a fool.

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