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goldmember,

exactly. I will go long dollar if i get good signals, i never had a probelm to short something which is Dover Sole like hell, i only need confirmation, thats all. Euro rally reminds me of usdjpy rally last year. Exactly at the time when everybody thought "oh man, that thing will fly to the moon" it retraced.

 

Last level where traders did go long euro heavily was at 0.96, now we are at 1.04, thats 800 pips, for a n intermediate term trader that is quite some money.

 

RE: GBP, can you imagine what happens when a 22 y3ear long downtrend will be broken? Mon dieu! B)

Fx,

 

It looks to me like the Euro 104.5 - 107 area is where the European asset allocation to the US becomes a loss on a currency basis. IMO we may see a bounce in USD before we see those levels. But when we reach those levels we may see a reinforcing spiral that drives spoos down and Euro up.

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fxfox-goldmember-Dont suppose the dollar can rally with stocks again . It traded sideways during the Oct/Dec rally, and in my opinion this "failure to confirm" was determinant in the recent freefall.

 

Furthermore, everybody is expecting a retracement, seeing Jpy almost stuck at 120. In my view, the conditions are ripe for a now, more than ever, (he, he,) an accident.

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Rog, is the part where the competitive currency devaluation game kicks in? Japan must be freaking breaking 120. I am expecting Japan to sell yen and buy dollars and throw in some buying of crappy stock off the commercial banks in Japan. That ought to smack down the yen and boost the buck for a bit. All of the two week move once it has made the turn. Like fx I merely await the turn to say so first.

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6300214338.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg

 

Memorable Quotes from

Trading Places (1983)

 

Billy Ray Valentine: It seems to me that the best way to hurt rich people is by making them poor.

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Louis: Looking good, Billy Ray!

Billy Ray: Feeling good, Louis!

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Randolph Duke: Mother always said you were greedy.

Mortimer Duke: She meant it as a compliment.

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Approaching the New York Commodities Exchange]

 

Louis Winthorpe III: Think big, think positive, never show any sign of weakness. Buy low, sell high. Fear? That's the other guy's problem. Nothing you have ever experienced will prepare you for the unlimited carnage you are about to witness. Superbowl, World Series -- they don't know what pressure is. In this building, it's either kill or be killed. You make no friends in the pits and you take no prisoners. One moment you're up half a mil in soybeans and the next, boom, your kids don't go to college and they've repossessed your Bentley. Are you with me?

 

Billy Ray Valentine: Yeah, we got to kill the mother-- we got to kill 'em!

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Japan has a history of intervening in very thin markets like Christma eve and New Years eve. So large positions are not being taken at 120. Next year however is a whole new ball game. Also the Japanese are repatriating into the March year end to reliquify bank balance sheets.

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