Tig 'Ol Bitties Posted February 13, 2003 Report Share Posted February 13, 2003 Big Wave, I like Pile's list and would only add GSS as a higher risk, but promising play; KGC as they work through the merger and are truly a player in the industry now; and AEM and MDG as lower risk, more mature names. I also believe HL is significantly discounted thanks to the common offering recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted February 13, 2003 Report Share Posted February 13, 2003 You practically can't go wrong with any of them, its a bull market in gold !!! Screw the little scarey dips ("corrections"). Their sole purpose is to scare the weak-handed out of PMs so it can work higher. Looks like a nice blood-letting going on in the fuctures right now. My turdfolio should be taking another nice pounding into oblivion tomorrow. Haven't gotten the official technical buy signal on PMs yet but I suspect one is right around the corner. Got a small flurry of signals today on a handful of them. Should be getting interesting the next few weeks both for shorts and PMs. Its about time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tig 'Ol Bitties Posted February 13, 2003 Report Share Posted February 13, 2003 Iraq inspectors find banned missile system From James Bone in New York THE chief United Nations weapons inspector will report tomorrow that Iraq has been developing a ballistic missile that is in clear violation of UN restrictions. Iraq inspectors find banned missile system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted February 13, 2003 Report Share Posted February 13, 2003 Drip Drip Drip. No buyers no sellers no volume. Weird market. The whole world waiting for something to happen. At least that part of humanity that is awake. Most folk will party as long as the band plays on. Things have become surreal. Maybe I hang out here too much? Probably wouldn't matter as I was like this before. How do you think I got here. Turdsday morning 8:30 we have numbers. Initial claims, import/export prices and retail sales. Dell, Loews and AIG report after the bell. Trade safe. Rich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summoner Posted February 13, 2003 Report Share Posted February 13, 2003 Nuther late one at work...only position change; closed 10 Mar spx 900 puts for 15 pts.837-822..still heavy short on AMGN and EBAY...can sleep comfortably with both as I expect 20 plus downside moves in each before year end, probably even more....similar plays in NVDA and ELX last year. Have not checked my PMs in weeks, WHT, DROOY, GG, and GFI as short term noise doesnt effect my LTBH, but from reading the board tonight I gather another buying opp is upon us...will be reloading spx puts if we get to resistance..still 6 figure short in RYVNX... may cover soon and take some profit off the table. TRADE SAFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWave Posted February 13, 2003 Report Share Posted February 13, 2003 Big Wave, I like Pile's list and would only add GSS as a higher risk, but promising play; KGC as they work through the merger and are truly a player in the industry now; and AEM and MDG as lower risk, more mature names. I also believe HL is significantly discounted thanks to the common offering recently. Tanks again, Tigs. Love that name. I'm not ready to set the full line, but I am going to scale in slowly. Wait for the buyops as we climb this wall of worry. Regards...BW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buttugly Posted February 13, 2003 Report Share Posted February 13, 2003 Wrecked Him: Thanks man. I remember being very fragile when I was young. I couldn't understand how when the economy was singing along I got excellent performance appraisals and then suddenly it was like I was retarded. But now I am old enough and ugly enough I understand - it is the nature of being a "white collar slave". That's why I really feel for those who died in the WTC SLAVE SHIP. What a complete FOKKER. What do they say -" A recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose your job". A fokker is when you lose you life at your job!" If GW can turn this around I will be truly amazed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted February 13, 2003 Report Share Posted February 13, 2003 Sorry buttugly. Keep your chin up. I'm counting the days myself. ******************* Since you guys don't come to Night Stool I'll post one of my charts here. Hope you like it. This chart has been freaking me out for weeks. We are sitting at another crossroads. If I was The End I would break into song here but I sing terribly. I still expect to ride the line down into those dates. The numbers are not that far away now. Drip Drip Drip. Watch Thursday and Friday because of the intersection on this chart. As if we din't have to watch our asses everyday with the criminal elements we are opposing. S&P Gann Fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWave Posted February 13, 2003 Report Share Posted February 13, 2003 ButtUgly- Hang in there, they may have done you a favor. Use the time while you have it. Didn't you post about going to Sweden? Might be a good time to go and test the water. Stoolies rule. BW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torah man Posted February 13, 2003 Report Share Posted February 13, 2003 ok, what are all of the sigma events. google only gives me a bunch of sorority calendars when i search for sigma events. sigma 10 is reeeeeaaaalll bad from what i gather. sigma 4 is ???? any others??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted February 13, 2003 Report Share Posted February 13, 2003 Butt-here's another Stoolie who feels for you-it's tough but a lot of others will follow. Think about turning your hobby into a career I did that many years ago and have never looked back-you are bright and intuitive-so it's not a stretch. Merciless and i used to talk about how we loved the anominity of what we do. Only my accountant and my family know what I make and they are all happy and so am I-if ever there was a time to be independant this is it-much worse to come. trade safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted February 13, 2003 Report Share Posted February 13, 2003 Going from the Mohel Lynch mob (Oy do we got tips for you) to Fleet Enema gang is like going from the frying pan into the fire. This is simply exchanging a bunch of smart crooks for a bunch of dumbass ones. The fate of "Buy and Holders" who allow the 80% of borkers to pick worthless crap for them: see below Find the 20% who are successful in a prolonged secular bear, like Windy or The End. Or learn technical analysis here at Stoolville, and of course it really should be redundant to mention this by now, a subscription to the Hallowed Anals of Stock Proctology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marketneutral Posted February 13, 2003 Report Share Posted February 13, 2003 What about that guy Josephson, who said the semi train was leaving the station in April 2001? He should be horse whipped. Do it in a public forum with satellite coverage. Afterwards ship him down to Anarctica, dump him off on an ice flow with a bow and arrow and a couple of fish hooks in the middle of bear mating season.? I love that comment! Here's a copy of an several email exchanges I had with that guy back in '01: From 4/11/01 What a disgrace. Gross manipulation to save your firm's ass! You obviously know nothing about DCF analysis/valuation. Then again maybe you do, but putting your reputation on the line for the greedy sake of SSB. The whole semi sector is way overvalued and you're calling a bottom (or near-bottom) on the stocks. You're doing no favor to investors by upgrading in a market environment that's going nowhere--bottom may come in the next "several" months, but demand will remain flat for some time to come. Semis and tech are dead for the next 2-3 years. Just another banking bitch I guess--wishy washy bitch. Hopefully, Mr. Niles at Lehman sticks to his guns and not succumb to the wishes of his greedy banking brothers. From 7/6/01 It's been about 3 months since you issued your "things cannot possibly get worse" call. Technically you were correct as evidenced by returns over the time horizon, but fundamentals have continued to deteriorate with no end in sight. So are you a fundamentalist or a technician? And do you believe in a V-shaped bottom? I'll give you a hint: it ain't happening if you do. Talk to some real anal cysts over at Gartner to find out the true fundamentals of the industry. His response: Why do you have such a strong opinion yet remain > anonymous? My response: I'm smarter than the average bear (no pun intended). Just consider me one of the smarter "dumb" money players. If you need to talk, please let me know and I'll be happy to oblige. From 10/30/01 Mr. Joseph, Good morning! Well, it's now 6 months later. Have we yet seen a bottom? And if so, when will we actually start seeing growth on the demand side (not the supply side)? And how does this equate in terms of profitability? I didn't listen/see Intel's call, but the press release didn't sound like the company is too concerned about profitability.....only mentioned "deadly focused on growing our market segment share"--key word in this statement is deadly.....a/k/a severe margin deterioration; hopefully it doesn't become an ironic choice of words for Intel. Also, article mentioned that Intel will definitely meet one of its targets this year--"still on track to spend $7.5 billion this year on capital expenditures and $3.9 billion on research and development" As for market demand.....PC markets are fully mature with flat growth (in terms of units) at best over the next 18-24 months. At 80% of INTC's revenues...top line should decline as chip prices continue to fall. Growth areas INTC pitches: chips for high-powered servers. This may be a good growth area (in the long run), although business IT spending will continue to fall for the next 18-24 months. Communications chips: continues to plummet--bottom not until 2003 at the earliest. And chips for wireless data? Forgetaboutit.....3G ain't happening for many years to come, if ever. I don't know your revenue targets for '02 and '03 for INTC, but Intel's gonna have to make some extremely severe cost cuts to hit your estimates.....revenue growth will be flat at best. Your estimates are $.65 and $1.5 for '02 and '03, respectively--maybe you could copy this year's estimate of .47 and move it to next year, and take next year's and move it to 2004....let's see the PEG ratio would be under these more reasonable (yet still aggressive estimates) 23.54/.47/11.29 or 4.4 PEG......my price target of $6.90 implies a PEG ratio of 1.3--I have a strong feeling we'll get there by the time this economic cycle is over early next decade...... Oh by the way, just a little reminder in case you've already forgotten....5/7/01 "Point of greatest uncertainty has passed" 4/17/01 "INTC: Q1 Results In-line; Q2 Bottom, 2H Strong"--was this a report for 2002? 10/30/01 Consumer confidence at lowest levels in 7 years His response: I do not respond to anonymous emails, I only refer them to legal. That guy is probably still bullish on the sector. LOL!!! Note how close I was on the copying & pasting earnings estimates from 2001 to 2002. I call this the 'copy & paste' research methodology, which is a proprietary technique developed by none other than myself. Now if I could only get paid millions like Jon MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buttugly Posted February 13, 2003 Report Share Posted February 13, 2003 BigWave: thanks - I agree they have definitely done me a favour. Lots of different opportunities. Sweden doesn't really appeal - because I can't cope with high taxes. I was entertaining the idea of living on the Nevada side of Lake Tahoe. I remember a friend told me that is where he was based. But I can't remember what the town was called? Brian4: thanks for kind words. You are dead right you have got to work for yourself. In any event I have 3 months to wind-up the division it is a matter of closing the business and "turning out the lights when I leave". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest BEARDRECH Posted February 13, 2003 Report Share Posted February 13, 2003 for those of us who think our leaders are bad--please look at todays op=ed section in the washington post and read the kurzgefasste lebenslauf(short biography) of the self-haloed german foriegn minister,Herr Fischer There you will see in clear lineaments what the portrait of an international grade-a homogenised asshole is really like-- Allways remeber dear stoolies:the international arena is a spiritual Zoo where the endlessly growing sub-speciation of the genus Long Range Nuclear Rapist id growing apace :cry: :cry: :cry: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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