HiHat Posted December 10, 2002 Report Share Posted December 10, 2002 A perspective on FIAT fucutures, from Longwaves Forum...by John W. Perry Why the Fed will inflate but not hyperinflate. by John W Perry 09 December 2002 07:37 UTC < < < Thread Index > > > The problem is that all bankers (central bankers are no exception) feel most allegiance to their largest borrowers and depositors (and many people/corporations are *both*). There will be no "humanitarian hyperinflation" to rid Joe Sixpack of his debt by devaluing the dollars he uses to repay it. In fact, I look at the no-interest/deferred-payment schemes of the auto and furniture retailers right now as a "tip off" that deflation is to be expected because they wouldn't offer these incentives if they were to be payed back in *cheaper* dollars. Additionally, no central bank will devalue the wealth of the plutocracy by making dollar-denominated assets worthless. It is an interesting debating point as to whether hyperinflation for a short period would right the American economy but, ultimately, there is no fix because it will take us a generation to regain a manufacturing base, stricter moral and educational standards, and an economy based on production and savings instead of spending and scamming. No macroeconomist's Rosetta Stone will work if the entire population is cruder, baser, and lacking any standard of "the life worth living" outside of "he who dies with the most toys wins". In my regrettably pessimistic opinion, we now have that kind of population. While the media may have created a kind of global degeneration, most places still have identifiable places of reverence for the life of the mind. In America, I sense an almost palpable "will to stupidity" (our TV shows demonstrate this abundantly) except for the combination of fact-worship and money-making. America's "intellectual" life right now is like a Vo-Tech view of the world. John Perry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 10, 2002 Report Share Posted December 10, 2002 It's time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted December 10, 2002 Report Share Posted December 10, 2002 Aussie Bear-you got a slobberknocker going on over there-make dough girl! You know I gotta laugh-today was a 171 point dump and the p/c ratio dropped from.91 to .72 as those idiot dippers (bless their stupidity) bought calls with both hands. Calls outnumbered puts on the triple Q's by almost 3 to 1. You see their mentality is big dump on low volume, bullish time of yr, Al will bail us out etc. but you know what-with the DAMAGE done today it's way to friggin early to go long-the dippers are going to have a religious experience again-this week! Don't worry about the low volume that will come as this progresses if this thing bounces-I will add to my shorts-if there is to be a Santa rally it will be next week from significantly lower numbers. Trade Safe!-by the way Asia is red wall to wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buttugly Posted December 10, 2002 Report Share Posted December 10, 2002 One a year a bunch of buddies and I have a "Boys week". It is basically a week off from the wives and kids. One of the important rules is "What goes on tour stays on tour". Generally everyone is pretty well behaved and it is all good clean fun. Certainly some of the guys get pretty wild and certainly everyone is keen to have loads of beer and chatting up young ladies is "par for the course". Anyway earlier this year it was my turn to organize the trip. Everything went pretty smoothly until we pulled up to our ski lodge in Whistler and discovered it was "GAY week". Now it is not my intention to bad mouth gays - but certainly the boys were NOT HAPPY. So recently when I was booking a family holiday - I couldn't help but ask the agent "It's not gay week". She looked at me kind of strangely. Call it "once bitten twice shy". Anyway what the point of this cautionary tale is : I was recently a non-believer when it came to Adam Hamilton and VIX. But having been bitten I remain a scaredy cat bear. Still wondering whether I should be worried by the VIX action! I probably need to refer back to Brian4's calming comments, last time I was worrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted December 10, 2002 Report Share Posted December 10, 2002 Altitude! Gay week in Whistler! AH, HAHAHAHAAHAHAHHHAHHA!!! Big dollars roll into town from all over the world that week therefore it is welcomed and promoted. That is actually one of the weeks where Whistler rocks the hardest. Those fags KNOW how to party!!!!! The Cinderella Ball in the conference center is THE event of the year, believe it or not! No, I'm not gay, but I do have a tolerant and open mind. Multiculturalism and all that. Hell, it's Canada's immigration policy! Wouldn't survive without it! :grin: I live just down the road south of Whistler, parked halfway between Whistler and Vancouver, most convenient. The service sector for Whistler, chambermaids especially, try and use any seniority to take that week off, since they are the ones changing the sheets! All we need here is snow! Falling now, finally!!!! Friggin drought been happenen here so far. Unheard of for a rain forest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 10, 2002 Report Share Posted December 10, 2002 relax, we JUST turned the corner from a MAJOR, SIGNIFICANT high. A high water mark we are not likely to revisit without first visiting hell next. Don't be too hyper in looking for the next significant turning point when the last one just occured. The trend is now confirmed down and the top is just recently confirmed by many indicators too. Sort of like worrying about retirement money for your newborn. Enjoy the birth of your new baby bear cub... he's gonna turn into a big boy soon! :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
depends Posted December 10, 2002 Report Share Posted December 10, 2002 Pile, My VV Excel interface gave the confirmation today (as if you didn't already know). The 5day MA crossed down over the 9day MA. This is the third signal which confirms a downtrend. Of course I went short on the first signal which was just after Doc said it would be ok to start putting them on. With the big feed there may be a shortable bounce, but I am getting more aggressive here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 10, 2002 Report Share Posted December 10, 2002 B4 et al.....yes loads of lovely red here, loads of sellers, bears are on a winner... Being as I bought puts a tad too soon I was popped out of the money over last couple of weeks (you were right Piles) but heading back down in a big way so now at the money or close..Agree B4, there's more in the current downside, wouldn't be worrying about any manipulation or market noise in the short term. Midnite, in accord with you re the intermediate trend turning down. The market leaders like banks, Newscorp have already done so and I expect the rest to fall in line with them. I'm looking at daily charts and you at the weeklies but we're getting the same story... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ani Prolapse Posted December 10, 2002 Report Share Posted December 10, 2002 But why pay a 5% back end load for this piece of garbage if it has negative returns? Can you believe that there are 7-figure salary managers running these funds? Who pays for those expensive suits? Who pays for that outrageous rent on a Park Avenue office? Who pays for those designer finished cement floors and stainless steel handrails in the lobby? Why are there so many of these funds with billions invested? Where did the money come from? Why hasn't the money been pulled out? So many shares traded. So much wasted commissions. So much anxiety. So much mediocrity. So much hope that some advisor will randomly pick your fund as part of some blind asset allocation decision. How is it that so much money can remain in such a mediocre asset class? Why hasn't there been more redemptions? How come we haven't seen a major run on these funds? How come there haven't been any major fund closures, mergers, or failures? Nice job. Ani thinks that first song for the new album: "The Wall (Street) 2003" has been written. We just need Roger Waters to add some music. On the other hand, Ani will be covering her shorts tomorrow, considering a few days bounce very likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 10, 2002 Report Share Posted December 10, 2002 Aussie, well worded, there's a time to worry and a time not to worry. Now's not the time to be worrying about short term pops. Depends, thanks for VV update, my VV buy/sell ratio of garbage stocks peaked at 6:1 and is now < 1:1. The fever broke, game over bully. The regular buy/sell peaked at 3.0 and has been shaved in half already. Also, a bearish sign. Say goodbye to Dec 2nd highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogBoy Posted December 10, 2002 Report Share Posted December 10, 2002 "The only stock that rose was Varian Medical Systems Inc., which makes radiation machines " I've seen this crap sooo many times in the last few years where they rotate out of some junk and into other junk. This is just another sign that the whole thing is about to go down the crapper. I'm with ya Torah on holding ALL PUTZ. I wouldn't sell any now if you twisted my arm around 4 times. The PUTZ are goin to Da Moon Alice !!!! As for hyperinflation AG might as well do it cuz the dollar is in a bear market and will collapse against both Gold and most other currencies --- the writing is on the wall. Sayanara Misto Dollah. Just do it Al !!! It won't make any difference and it'll be fun to play with real dollars when I sit down with my kids for a nice game of Monopoly. I think we'll see deflation (lower incomes and prices) and currency collapse simulatneouly. It will be the greatest financial disaster any nation has ever experienced in all time. "having been bitten I remain a scaredy cat bear." Huh ? This is a B-E-A-R market -- the greatest Bear of ALL TIME !!! You sound like that apostle Thomas. Do you need some laid off computer programmer over at your house to convince you ? Or what ? The whole friggin house of cards is collapsing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 10, 2002 Report Share Posted December 10, 2002 Crack House indeed Dogboy. Aussie, remember back in late October this... http://www.wwfn.com/crashupdate.html was lighting up green all over? Well its now starting to go yellow quickly. Watch all those bulls start yanking out now. Panic now, avoid the rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 10, 2002 Report Share Posted December 10, 2002 nothing like throwing good money after bad and chasing the next bubble to burst. Now we can enhance our 401K losses...great! http://www.damonvickers.com/news.asp?id=329 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 10, 2002 Report Share Posted December 10, 2002 Hey thanks for that Piles....the link works now so I've bookmarked it. Do you think they've had a tinker with the black box? Seem to be remarkably on the ball for a change.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted December 10, 2002 Report Share Posted December 10, 2002 Fokker just had a weird experience. He's applied for major illness coverage- get this. For 2500$ per year for 10 years, the insurance co will pay Fokker 180K if he gets diagnosed with a major illness. Every 2 years, the payout increases by 20%. After 10 years, if Fokker hasn't gotten sick, they pay back all the premiums- 25K. So they send a nurse over to take a urine sample. Fokker waits for this nurse, who shows up at 9:45PM (an hour and fifteen minutes late), wanders in with a pierced eyebrow, died orange hair, and looking a ghost, coughing and sneezing. Fokker just finished scrubbing his hands up to his elbows... anyway, this ghoul came in, filled out a form, took Fokker's piss and skeddaddled. Strange time. Usually Fokker shares his urine only after the 2nd date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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