wndysrf Posted May 24, 2003 Author Report Share Posted May 24, 2003 BEARDRECH: Do NOT short bonds here. Roger Arnold says they are going much higher. Wait for the bond.com mania to reach peak frenzy first. Then at the top, buy the Rydex Juno fund or short the TLT tracking stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayok Posted May 24, 2003 Report Share Posted May 24, 2003 Gold hedge..............don't leave home without it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Takachi Posted May 24, 2003 Report Share Posted May 24, 2003 My guess is we'd be lucky to get off like Japan. Except: we have no internal national savings like Japan. the yen is not a reserve currency waiting to be repatriated. they already depreciated their real estate. we have nobody to sell to that wants our stuff (except military). they make stuff, we make SPE's (well, we do make Krispy Kremes). But the real killer is they still want to work, we just want them to send it in exchange for worthless green paper. Argentina was just practise. Hyper is right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
depends Posted May 24, 2003 Report Share Posted May 24, 2003 As I watched boxing tonight I read this: Ron Paul: ?Earlier we were talking about your (in)ability to talk about the value of the dollar and what it should be. I find that rather ironic. I mean, the Federal Reserve is in charge of the monetary system, and you, as chairman, have a lot to say about what monetary policy is and how much money will be printed and created and what interest rates would be. So we find it a bit ironic that you can?t comment on the value of the dollar, and we defer to Treasury. " . . . Alan Greenspan: ?Senator, as you well know, . . . " blah blah blahblah blah, blah blah blahblah blah, blah blah blahblah blah . . . "it is quite possible to get into an unstable equilibrium.? (I edited this because I couldn't understand what he said.) From: http://www.safehaven.com/Credit/052303.htm Give these guys gloves and let's get ready to rumble. I think the US peso is roadkill because the Fed is powerless except in the very short term - like the rock in the pond. And that Soros was being truthful when he stated that he is short the dollar. I could be wrong. I often am. But thats what I think. Ron Paul for King. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gamma Posted May 24, 2003 Report Share Posted May 24, 2003 Mirant has destroyed 1.84 billion dollars of shareholder equity since inception, has a tangible book of negative 263 million dollars, but the chart looks good. Great! You buy now, I'll sell later when the music stops. Mirant wrote off non-cash impairment losses of 2.2 billion in year 2002. This drained up its retained earning and its tangible asset became negative. Forecast EPS in first year of recovery is 0.70. Although it may sound ridiculous, it can be a $10 stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted May 24, 2003 Report Share Posted May 24, 2003 Elaine Gazarelli's on NBR right now with Paul Gangas. I swear to god, this woman has Jacko's plastic surgeon. "...secular flat market and a cycular bull market.... Dow can go back up another 25% from here..." They really need to lose the playful t?te-a-t?te at the end of the show between Paul & Suzie... And while I'm on the rag, their charts suck. Dude, I caught that, and that's when I turned off the tube. She looks like the Joker by Jack Nicholson in Batman. She was so completely medicated and rabid- the cycular bull shit was the precise moment when I banged the power button on my remote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayok Posted May 24, 2003 Report Share Posted May 24, 2003 Ultimately all currencies are an option on the perceived future production of the issuing nation. Perceptions change. Suppose two people are alone on a desert island with no source of fresh water. One person has a million U.S. dollars and the other a gallon of fresh water, how much is the water worth? Foreign perceptions of the value of the U.S. dollar are most certainly changing also. I am not expecting a panic crash though, if this bear market has taught me anything, it is the power of denial, and the status quo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted May 24, 2003 Report Share Posted May 24, 2003 Ron Paul.. "And this would be the first time in the history of civilization that fiat money has..." Ron Paul for king! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buttugly Posted May 24, 2003 Report Share Posted May 24, 2003 Well the market humbles all of us. My St Barts pal called a major intermediate top at 920. And it hasn't emerged!! So I asked him for his thoughts. Have we crossed some important "line in the sand"? NO! He said 920 represented a "low risk entry" point on the short side. "Nothing has changed". "Trade management" hasn't been required. He said we are entering "fire season" and the "forest floor is tinder dry". The forest management practices have been DIABOLICAL. "It's not a question of if, it's a question of when and how". "A careless campfire, a kid with matches, a lightning strike.... " The next 30 days will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayok Posted May 24, 2003 Report Share Posted May 24, 2003 Mirant wrote off non-cash impairment losses of 2.2 billion in year 2002. This drained up its retained earning and its tangible asset became negative. Forecast EPS in first year of recovery is 0.70. Although it may sound ridiculous, it can be a $10 stock. A loss is a loss. The goodwill and investments written off represent the amount overpaid for the assets purchased. Shareholders still paid the price, and the value of the company is still -263 million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted May 24, 2003 Report Share Posted May 24, 2003 Ultimately all currencies are an option on the perceived future production of the issuing nation. Perceptions change. Suppose two people are alone on a desert island with no source of fresh water. ?One person has a million U.S. dollars and the other a gallon of fresh water, how much is the water worth? Foreign perceptions of the value of the U.S. dollar are most certainly changing also. I am not expecting a panic crash though, if this bear market has taught me anything, it is the power of denial, and the status quo. yes, but its remarkable for Sybil to say that the stability (my word) of the situation is based upon the premise that because furners hold soooooo much of our debt/USD that a cliff dive is unlikely - in others words, the situation is so unbalanced they could not even unwind their positions quickly. so by extension, the more unbalanced the situation becomes, the more stable (and less likely the cliff dive scenario) it becomes. what Sybil said is nonsensical. it does not have to start out as a panic, but once the momentum is heading off the cliff, the dive could reach terminal velocity very quickly. good night - i get the last post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alborz Posted May 24, 2003 Report Share Posted May 24, 2003 My guess is we'd be lucky to get off like Japan. Except: we have no internal national savings like Japan. the yen is not a reserve currency waiting to be repatriated. they already depreciated their real estate. we have nobody to sell to that wants our stuff (except military). they make stuff, we make SPE's (well, we do make Krispy Kremes). But the real killer is they still want to work, we just want them to send it in exchange for worthless green paper. Argentina was just practise. Hyper is right! How did RE fare during and after the collapse in Argentina? I asked a friend who had relatives there and she thought that it did rather poorly. I tried to argue that it should've done better than cash but she wasn't very knowledgable and I couldn't find any references on the web. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alborz Posted May 24, 2003 Report Share Posted May 24, 2003 I think I'll dong HOV as nice hedge to my shorts http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetoo...cker_symbol=HOV Speculators think its coming down. Nope, sorry, it'll keep going up. Thanks for the support. Nice looking funnymentals. 25% short interest, practically nil insider selling for 1 1/2 years. I'll bet there's some serious pain in that one with that short interest! What do you all think of WEBX? 53% short interest. I went long at 10.40 but chickened out at 10.75. The short interest is so high that I thought the market knows something. But fundamentally, their market is one of the only growing markets I can think of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyGoldenStool Posted May 24, 2003 Report Share Posted May 24, 2003 Was that Seidman or Wolman? Wolman is Kudlow's usual sparring partner, but it appears Kudlow sent in his head thug. To be honest, I'm not sure, but I think it was Seidman. Just caught the tail end of it. Those old geezers all look the same to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted May 24, 2003 Report Share Posted May 24, 2003 Mirant has destroyed 1.84 billion dollars of shareholder equity since inception, has a tangible book of negative 263 million dollars, but the chart looks good. Great! You buy now, I'll sell later when the music stops. yup, "dog with fleas" Too late in up cycle since March lows to tag it. Too risky now. Easy money on whores like these is over. Wait for shorting season. Should be starting soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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