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IDS World Markets Fri 17th December 04


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http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/b?s=^AORD

 

Another thrust into record high territory but things are quiet in general. All Ords +0.1%, banks have slipped into the red, retailers are up but relatively muted considering yesterday's surge and News Corp, up as usual, +0.4%.

 

In the golds, Newmont getting a beating, -2.8%, Lihir -0.9% and Newcrest +0.4%. The oils up around 0.5% on low volume.

 

Over in Asia, Nikkers doing a screamer, slicing through 11k, +1.1%, Sth Korea +0.8%, Singers +0.3% and Taiwan -0.2%.

 

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

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Australia's Coal Industry Can't Cope With Demand

 

Prime, which runs the Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal (DBCT) near Mackay in north Queensland - Australia's second largest coal terminal and Queensland's biggest, has been dodging bullets for the past couple of months.

 

Insatiable demand in China, and to a lesser extent Brazil and India, has seen the price of coking coal - used to fire blast furnaces - triple over the past 18 months, with some steel producers willing to pay up to $US140 a tonne.

 

But with Rio Tinto Coal Australia managing director Grant Thorne the strongest critic, miners are saying Australia does not have the transport infrastructure to cope with demand.

 

On Thursday there were 26 vessels waiting to be loaded with coal at DBCT, the greatest number was 49 in July.

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Yep it's all rock & roll, happy-happy Wndy (enjoy it while it lasts you Oz hedonists)..

 

post-609-1103264742_thumb.gif

 

Well it was 4k or bust today and indeed we did surf through 4k albeit briefly. All Ords closed +0.3% with the bluechips receiving most of the attention as has been the wont of late. Some of the specs beginning to stir though after the recent rout.

Banks flat and retailers increased their gains closing up around 1% on average.

 

Golds languished today with mixed results, not even worth reporting. Oils had respectable gains on reasonable volume.

 

Over in Asia, Nikkers did a surge, +1.4% but it was on its own. The other bourses recorded minimal gains or closed in the red, like China, -0.9%.

 

Okay over to Europe where its been rather volatile of late...

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A'dam calling! To all real intents and purposes the year is over for the big-boys here.

If the books aren't already closed,then they will be today.

Just the final scam Friday of 04 to be taken care of.Mebbee next week they'll have their Santa rally with reatively thinly traded markets they can push it all over the place.

Our call/put ratio is still rising and has been since the Aug lows and it needs just a last blast of optimism to push the c/p ratio into a good shorting rockatunity.

 

The E-woofer I look at (and he would seem to have some contacts) says that a reliable source told him that something is about to happen in the "interest rates" department.

What and when he did not say but on E-woof basis he thinks this a top around here with maybe 1% upward potential before a correction.

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Your Aristocrat Leisure is up over 4% to new all time highs...........

Unreal............

 

Problem the company had was in the Boardroom, not with the products. Stock has been a 5 bagger since adult supervision arrived, cleaned up the books, began telling investors the truth and started a stock buyback.

 

I read somewhere that there are more Aristocrat gambling machines in Lost Wages than there are permanent residents.:lol:

 

Second biggest market is Japan.

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Seeking Reassurance

Getting Nervous, A Good Sign?

 

Your Golden Stool, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is loaded. Even if you are not a goldbug, you should check out the Golden Stool. It's in your Anals daily. Take a subscribatory and download the Golden Stool RIGHT NOW!

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Forget Fundamentals - Forget TA - Forget Divergences - Forget Indices...

 

The Holy Grail is here - and its name is TZOO (sounds Zennish...).

 

Looks closely at this chart.

 

TZOO first broke out on May-14 - the market bottomed on May-17

 

It then formed the first triangle and brokeout on Aug-16 - the market bottomed on Aug-13.

 

It formed another triangle and brokeout on Oct-25 - the market (Dow) bottomed on Oct 25.

 

In each of these triangles, it found support at 50-MA and touched it 2/3 times.

 

Now, its forming another triangle - its not complete yet - and hence the market stays in a corrective mode. It touched 50-MA once and should touch it 1/2 more times.

 

Then, if it breaks out - the market will go higher. The Bear will not return until TZOO has a nervous breakdown and slashes its 50-MA on volume.

post-1689-1103292110.gif

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Good Morning!

 

The warning signals have been growing this week for any who would pay attention. Last night we got another one from a major monetary indicator. Earlier this week the markets benefitted from a huge, but temporary Trashury debt paydown. It was a one shot deal and it was simply a matter of putting lipstick on the pig. Well the lipstick went on, and the pig is still a pig, only now it's starting to smell like one again. Now that the extra cash is all in, and the Trashury is going to start demanding more and more again, and now that Uncle Fuku may be slowing his buying again, bond yields have broken out to the upside, and stock prices have gapped down in a big way.

 

Bond yields hit 4.25 on the CPI release, which, by the way, is still grossly understating the true inflation rate. 4.25 is a couple of ticks above the 3 day cycle cmap posted yesterday, of 4.225. At the moment, the 5 hr cycle target (cmap) looks like 4.255. The 3 day cmap is now very uncertain. It could be around 4.25, or it could be as high as 4.28. I'll update here today as time permits. As far as the longer term picture, subscribers should check in with the Long Bong Hit, a regular feature of the Anals of Stock Proctology.

 

Buck sold off to 82 overnight, and just spiked to 82.54. 5 hr cycle indicators have gone to the sell side, on a pullback here to 82.38. 24 hour cycle indicators still point up. So far, the cmap only looks like 82.60. 3 day cycle indicators are headed down, but in a pause. 82.50 was the upside cmap. This looks like a sideways down phase. Unless it takes out 82 again on a pullback, Buck may be ready to move higher. Stay up to date on the big picture, including buy and sell signals and price targets for short, intermediate, and long term trends, with the Uncle Buck report, a regular feature of the Anals of Stock Proctology. Click the link at the bottom of this post, and take a trial subscription today!

 

Meanwhile, I'll see you in Stooltrading, where I update the intraday buy and sell signals and price targets throughout the day on SPX, SPY, QQQQ, and HUI.

 

Click here, and try a trial subscription!

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