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World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Blithe beckoning


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Good link from last November - GDP deceleration has been going on for a long time.  And due to demographics, it is probably not turning around anytime soon.

 

http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2014/11/secular-stagnation

 

Some thoughts from a smart friend:

 

"I suspect we have a slight advantage over Japan and Europe, because goods and services are actually cheaper here, closer to their real cost and worth, and thereby prices don't have as far to fall.  Stuff just costs too much in Europe, as it did/does in Japan.  Couple that with aging and debt and other special interests you have a near-permanent recipe for slow growth and deflation.

 
And there's superposition.  You have a commodities supercycle ending at the same time as big time aging worldwide all at the same time as a technological revolution in the oil patch (a net positive for many) at the same time as central bank experiments.  China is at the core of a lot of it -- prices got pushed high enough to encourage all kinds of production.
 
I wonder if the talking heads have it backwards, as they seem to be worrying about deflation causing slow growth.  It's more like slow growth causes deflation.  And low interest rates aren't going to spur demand that just isn't there (Draghi is not an idiot, he already knows this, IMO he's aiming at the currency as their best hope, he just can't say so).
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w?s=%5EAORD

 

A reasonably solid day for All Ords with the index finishing +0.5%.  Sectors ranged from Utilities +1.9% and REITS +1.6% down to Consumer Staples -2.5%.

Over in Asia, China +0.8%, Hong Kong and India +0.3% and Nikkei +0.2%.

 

 

On to UK/Europe:

 

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image;size=239x110


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