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B4 The Bell Tuezelday Sptember 28


thesun

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More from the Oil article..." I think you are going to see $60- @ Barrell before you see $40.-."..said T. Boone Pickens, who oversees more than one Billion $ in energy related hedge Funds in Dallas......"This is a market that is tighter than it was at the beginning of the 1973 oil crisis"...said Daniel Yergin, Chairman of Cambridge Energy Associates at a conference in Washington..."there is no margin for error"..."Everyone has to drive and heat their homes but lower income people will feel the most pain from higher gas and Heating Oil prices." said Jason Schenker an Economist at Wachovia Corp

If true, and it comes about like this, I imagine this disaster causes Bush more problems and general revolt in those who previously supported him than any other issue faced by his administration.

That is the whole point, in my opinion.

 

A few years ago, some ideologues issued a set of position papers that say "The USA needs to conquer the oil fields in the Middle East." It's called the "Project for a New American Century."

 

Those same ideologues got top posts in the Bush administration. And then, after 9/11, Bush was very eager to conquer Iraq. Iraq was in no way connected to OBL and did not have nuclear weapons. Iran may be next.

 

Now Bush is up for reelection. And what a surprise, oil rises to $50! The oil exporting countries are throwing their hands in the air and say "We'll increase production, but demand is too strong".

 

Yeah, sure. The oil exporters really want to help a US president whose unsaid goal is to conquer their oil fields in the Middle East.

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LLD:

 

Tough call as to how all this will impact earnings in the short run.

These Hurricanes have all hit on weekends, and while plywood sales were obviously up, the regular business cycle has been seriously rattled, and renovation projects and construction in general has been impacted as people focus on self-preservation. Florida is a big market for HD, but right now I question how rapidly the money that will eventually be spent on rebuilding will find its way into the system. People who were already half way though fixing storm damage from Frances or Charley just got wacked again, and in many spots, no insurance money has been made available to even begin repairs. People are weary, and some may wait another month before they even think about making repairs.

 

If the Ten Year goes against the housing industry nationally, HD will take a hit. If hurricanes were bullish for HD, it would be up big time in the past month. Far too many people are about to learn that they were either uninsured or underinsured. Not going to pretty for this economy.

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"Zero percent" credit card deals dried up this spring when Mad Al started warning of rate hikes.

 

However, Citibank has now launched a zero-percent offer on its credit card. Unlike MBNA's zero-percent deals, which are usually limited to 6-9 months, this one stays at zero percent until the balance is paid off.

 

It's either a desperate ploy for market share ... or else the computers say that enough cardholders will miss a monthly payment and get gazumphed to 19.99% or 24.99% penalty rate, that they can still make money lending 1.75 points below Fed funds rate.

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hurricanes and underinsured will not cause boom :o only BUST in fla

 

 

home on paper in bubble worth 1 million

 

owner never increased policy value for balloon in bubble.

 

roof gets blown off cost to replace 50k ins pays 10k :shocked

 

large deductible are us fla :P

 

fights breaking out about tree removal already

 

big bucks ins pays { 0} :blink:

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..or else the computers say that enough cardholders will miss a monthly payment and get gazumphed to 19.99% or 24.99% penalty rate, that they can still make money lending 1.75 points below Fed funds rate.

Bingo!

 

But when folks can't pay anyway, it won't matter what interest rate they "book".

 

The question is, will the higher rate offset the chargeoff rate?

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"Zero percent" credit card deals dried up this spring when Mad Al started warning of rate hikes.

 

However, Citibank has now launched a zero-percent offer on its credit card. Unlike MBNA's zero-percent deals, which are usually limited to 6-9 months, this one stays at zero percent until the balance is paid off.

 

It's either a desperate ploy for market share ... or else the computers say that enough cardholders will miss a monthly payment and get gazumphed to 19.99% or 24.99% penalty rate, that they can still make money lending 1.75 points below Fed funds rate.

look closely at the fine print.

 

the deal is 0% financing until the transfer is paid off. if and only if you make a certain amount of purchases with the card each month. This is a suckers bet with three catches:

1) They collect interest from day one (@21-28%). You must make purchases. But any payment goes to the lowest rate balance first

2) The allowable transfer is less than advertised to make room for further purchases.

3)As an added kicker for the bank. most users will be late or miss a payment in 3-6mo at which point the whole balance moves to 21-28% int

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Plunger

Will there be no disaster relief forthcoming from the government?

I agree 100% on the ten year which really looks like it may be turning on yield as it failed to take out the lows ...so far...

The only way the monsters will be able to prolong the credit binge is through lower rates. I have quit trying to figure out the debt markets.

The rates they are selling the long stuff at has me baffled. Noone seems to know where all the demand is coming from. Corporate and junk spreads are not indicating impending dislocation so WTH is up?

 

HGX looking weak now

Tick is spent and returning to the mean

FNM and FRE returning to reality

mortgage insurers looking done as well

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