Ned38 Posted May 7, 2004 Report Share Posted May 7, 2004 Slightly off topic but Ijust heard an interview with former Clinton advisor Robert Reich Seems he is...........................................a stoolie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted May 7, 2004 Report Share Posted May 7, 2004 Ted Spread is widening suggesting dislocation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest libertas Posted May 7, 2004 Report Share Posted May 7, 2004 specie - are you thinking bonds are bottoming here? i'm just saying that everybody thinks rates are headed to the moon brilliant people like doc complete idiots like some borkers i know very emotional based on my experience its very likely they drop these jobs reports have caused traps for a long time not just this year but back in 98 and 2000 i think rates just peaked - depression ahead FWIW I agree with you. Auto sales, chain store sales, chip inventories. All saying that all is not well. We'll see. Rothbard's book mentions a "cluster of errors" as everyone gets their forecasting wrong at the onset of the depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearman Posted May 7, 2004 Report Share Posted May 7, 2004 specie - are you thinking bonds are bottoming here? i'm just saying that everybody thinks rates are headed to the moon brilliant people like doc complete idiots like some borkers i know very emotional based on my experience its very likely they drop these jobs reports have caused traps for a long time not just this year but back in 98 and 2000 i think rates just peaked - depression ahead FWIW I agree with you. Auto sales, chain store sales, chip inventories. All saying that all is not well. We'll see. Rothbard's book mentions a "cluster of errors" as everyone gets their forecasting wrong at the onset of the depression. how many warnings about deflation have you heard on crapvison? I rest my case....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sirius Posted May 7, 2004 Report Share Posted May 7, 2004 Some one did some great chart work here ahile back comparring the 87 equity mrkt and the 87 bond yld chart (can't remeber if it was 30 or 10's) but anyway one of the key things in that period was after bonds took out there previous swing high yld level they went parabolic into august...granted ylds were at higher levels then but it ws the speed at which the riseoccurred. So where are we in a ver close situation llok at a weekly yld chart .. or monthly the previous high lyld swing pt was the august 03 highs on 30's we are right ther on tens we blsted through it.....one indicator that is often looked at is the long bond yld - sp 500 div yld.....a spread of over 6% is considered bearish and a spread of under 5% is bullish in 87 the spread exceeded 6% in august and stood at 6.9% 1 week before the crash...i'll be watching that spread, but more interestingly to me would be if there is a similar correlation using 10yr yld vs sp500 div yld ...what is its spread threshold? since the 10s are the key in todays mrkt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orvack Posted May 7, 2004 Report Share Posted May 7, 2004 Orvack, what's the upper band on that chart? It appears to give excellent signals. It's a Walter Bressert (a cycle guy Doc probably knows) trendline. It's called the EMA%Diff Indicator. Percentage difference between 2 EMA indicators. Since I can't have Doc working in my basement, when I like a chart, I try to get a confirmation from Bressert's cycle tools. I find it pretty useful. (ProfitTrader for Metastock) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seamus Posted May 7, 2004 Report Share Posted May 7, 2004 Absolute carnage in the bond market - have to go back to last summer to see the same type of liquidation All spreads blowing out big time - emerging markets puking, corporates puking, mbs puking, agencies puking... All street firms now calling for a tightening at the June meeting. We will get long towards the end of month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 7, 2004 Report Share Posted May 7, 2004 steve mcqueen on the NASDAQ futures, what a surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted May 7, 2004 Report Share Posted May 7, 2004 WTF is with this? stock futures markets no relation to cash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted May 7, 2004 Report Share Posted May 7, 2004 Huge jamming in stocks. Al, GW, and the Plutocrats cannot risk embarrassment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted May 7, 2004 Report Share Posted May 7, 2004 Orvack, what's the upper band on that chart?? It appears to give excellent signals.? It's a Walter Bressert (a cycle guy Doc probably knows) trendline. It's called the EMA%Diff Indicator. Percentage difference between 2 EMA indicators. Since I can't have Doc working in my basement, when I like a chart, I try to get a confirmation from Bressert's cycle tools. I find it pretty useful. (ProfitTrader for Metastock) Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted May 7, 2004 Report Share Posted May 7, 2004 Heavy jamming in the Supermodels during the Pre-Market was the tip off to the Stick Save Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 7, 2004 Report Share Posted May 7, 2004 all morning stock futures were sharply red 10 minutes after open they all turn green like magic how 'bout that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 7, 2004 Report Share Posted May 7, 2004 I'll be damned, Bob Pissonme was right last night. Stocks do love higher interest rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaryman Posted May 7, 2004 Report Share Posted May 7, 2004 I guess if higher interest rates are good for the market, higher fuel prices must be even better for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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