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'Dow 10,000 or Bust'

 

 

by Rick Ackerman

 

I've been a reluctant bull for months,

persuaded by the strength of IBM's chart, of Citi's, and a few

others, to temporarily set aside my very strong doubts that the

economy is in a sustainable recovery. Some would assert that the

stock market's steady rise since March presciently foretold the

statistical recovery that seems now to be under way. But I've never

believed for one moment that a crazed creature of the id such as the

stock market could be prescient - nor, even, that it could act in a

rational way to discount known facts. What it does do, with

graphical precision, is provide us with a perfect visual analog for

the extreme mood swings, some short-term, some occurring over years

or even decades, that mark the ebb and flow of civilizational tides.

 

 

 

Meanwhile, we pore over the charts

attempting to make sense of it all, trying in vain to match up zigs

and zags with the news of the day. My own tea leaves have brought me

to the conclusion that stocks will continue higher at least into

early 2004, but I've made no attempt herein to square that forecast

with what I see happening in the real world. In fact, I hadn't much

considered the reasons, other than that the economy would continue

to respond reflexively to the largest dose of fiscal and credit

stimulus ever applied to it. Then I received from a subscriber the

following, attributed to a Capitalistool contributor who signed

himself "buddha." It sums up the rationale for higher stocks

perfectly, I think:

 

 

 

Without 'Sigma 10'

 

 

 

"It matters not where the Market is now.

That is not necessarily going to help one gauge the Madness of

Crowds. A better gauge is to regard the insanity of the California

recall or the day by day image management going on in Iraq. The

Matrix is in charge and it will muscle the masses very effectively

in whichever direction it chooses for the intermediate term. I

standby my 10,000 or bust scenario for this year. This target is far

too important to the fund industry and to those who manage blind

financial optimism in the media. I would never underestimate them.

 

 

 

"They can string this along for much longer

than a rational man could ever imagine. Without Sigma 10, it will

simply continue. The printing press will provide and the falling

dollar will be spun as bullish for stocks and for

domestic 'manufacturing'. Bush is closing in on 2004 reselection

with the same gusto Nixon displayed in 72'. He will stop at nothing

and he has the momentum regardless of what meaningless polls say at

this juncture. Does anyone really believe that he will suffer the

vulnerability of a falling Market during his upcoming campaign year?

Please. best, buddha."

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is it really true that private sector savings must equal investment under the funny-money system? Under a true gold standard, I agree that this true. But if I want to start a business today, I go to a bank and wow them with my business plan and they print me stack of 50's and say go for it. No one had to save shit. Someone reorient me. Please. Thanks. Best. 27.

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Fleck seems to think we are near exhaustion.

 

Bears seem to believe that bad news is necessary to send the market down.

 

Fleck says market will collapse from sheer exhaustion, no excuse needed.

 

He's now monitoring the YHOO boards to measure the levels of bullish hysteria.

 

Here is the PreMarket commentary on JNPR:

 

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=...d=&start=297770

 

Yesterday's PreMarket commentary on YHOO:

 

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=...d=&start=454031

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Going to the car dealer tomorrow!!! Check out this deal!!! Brand new 2003 Cadillac Escalade for 0% down, 3.9% for 8 years!! My payment will only be $399/mo.!! Getting the works: GPS navigation, Onstar, custom stereo, DVD for every passenger, 24 inch wheels and tires, all included!!!

 

 

Make sure it has an enema bag built into the console...

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Hey Capital Stoolies!!!

 

Anybody here making money???

 

I?m having a BLAST!!!

 

Check out CFC!!! Up 9%!!! Unreal!!!

 

Had to peel off JNPR. Still up 7% on that one!!!

 

BULL MARKET IS NOW ACCELERATING!!!

 

I?m going to start moving over to the bulletin board, unreal action over there!!!

 

Earnings season is HUGE!!! Everyone is beating estimates and raising guidance!!!

 

Didn?t Kudlow forecast this v-bottom recovery??

 

Consumer spending is going WILD!!

 

Anyone see that HOTT TOPIC? I added that one today!!!

 

Still holding my builders!!! Wait until those earnings arrive!!! Investors will be stunned!!!!

 

Going to the car dealer tomorrow!!! Check out this deal!!! Brand new 2003 Cadillac Escalade for 0% down, 3.9% for 8 years!! My payment will only be $399/mo.!! Getting the works: GPS navigation, Onstar, custom stereo, DVD for every passenger, 24 inch wheels and tires, all included!!!

 

Might as well trade in the 1999 Tahoe and step up the lifestyle!!

 

I?M GONNA BE RICH!!

 

I CAN?T BELIEVE I WAS SMART ENOUGH TO CATCH THE BOTTOM OF THE NEXT NEW BULL MARKET!!!

 

When the Nasdaq reaches 7000, friends of mine will be jealous when they hear I stepped up on margin when it was only 1800!!!

 

RIDE THE BULL!!

 

Gotta go and catch Bull and Bear debate on Kudlow and Cramer!! Can?t wait to see the bear get pummeled with all the bullish stats!!

 

Wow!! What an October so far!!!

 

KACHINGO for the Mo-Mo Monkey!!

 

 

mark,

 

your alter-ego is quite hilarious; however, your attempt at reverse psychology is futile. the matrix has won.

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buying the dip monday morning

 

http://www.saavycharts.info/

very bullish and probably goes Dover Sole quickly. People dont have the time now to wait day to day for there stocks to go up 100% It needs to be intraday...biggest gains are made at the end and that could be months with nice pullbacks..docs target day makes since for sure...I think next week will be the biggest week in a few years.....87 crash scenario where everyone throws downs huge put gambles will probably be the catalyst. That will probably get blasted over Crapvision and reasons will come on why that wont happen etc....we shall see.....strong uptrend that many will hate having missed.....All the HUGE amounts of 55 year olds who CANT retire will only be able to to open up the new jobs that are left is whenever round 2 starts...imo..If not just pure hysteria....I just dont see the its over idea at all yet....I am now checking "all data" when viewing charts to get gauges etc........maybe a nice retrace in 2 weeks. When many cant help but take first round of profits....thats when Ill be scoping out basing, building, set ups etc...good luck all regardless....

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Joe six pack has been pumping his money in releigously right along with Suzie Orman and Peter Lynch and still hasn't even thought about selling yet.

Another fine post, Ags.

 

Susie Orman was on Hollywood Squares recently, a real Joe 6 pack show if there is one. If we see Peter Lynch on Wheel of Fortune, I'm calling a top!

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Hey Capital Stoolies!!!

 

Anybody here making money???

 

I?m having a BLAST!!!

 

Check out CFC!!!  Up 9%!!! Unreal!!!

 

Had to peel off JNPR.  Still up 7% on that one!!!

 

BULL MARKET IS NOW ACCELERATING!!!

 

I?m going to start moving over to the bulletin board, unreal action over there!!!

 

Earnings season is HUGE!!!  Everyone is beating estimates and raising guidance!!!

 

Didn?t Kudlow forecast this v-bottom recovery??

 

Consumer spending is going WILD!!

 

Anyone see that HOTT TOPIC?  I added that one today!!!

 

Still holding my builders!!! Wait until those earnings arrive!!!  Investors will be stunned!!!!

 

Going to the car dealer tomorrow!!!  Check out this deal!!!  Brand new 2003 Cadillac Escalade for 0% down, 3.9% for 8 years!!  My payment will only be $399/mo.!!  Getting the works:  GPS navigation, Onstar, custom stereo, DVD for every passenger, 24 inch wheels and tires, all included!!!

 

Might as well trade in the 1999 Tahoe and step up the lifestyle!!

 

I?M GONNA BE RICH!!

 

I CAN?T BELIEVE I WAS SMART ENOUGH TO CATCH THE BOTTOM OF THE NEXT NEW BULL MARKET!!!

 

When the Nasdaq reaches 7000, friends of mine will be jealous when they hear I stepped up on margin when it was only 1800!!!

 

RIDE THE BULL!!

 

Gotta go and catch Bull and Bear debate on Kudlow and Cramer!!  Can?t wait to see the bear get pummeled with all the bullish stats!!

 

Wow!!  What an October so far!!!

 

KACHINGO for the Mo-Mo Monkey!!

 

 

mark,

 

your alter-ego is quite hilarious; however, your attempt at reverse psychology is futile. the matrix has won.

thats not mark, its someone from the clearstation boards named joeyd...he is hilarious though and a great trader.....

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He's now monitoring the YHOO boards to measure the levels of bullish hysteria.

 

Like this "crack anal cyst" found on the PMCS board? :D

(it's a $17 stock now- new 52-week highs almost daily, expected to lose a penny this quarter. DON'T SHORT IT- it's probably gonna print 20 soon!)

 

Look out shorts.

If the economy really kicks in this will fly.

.20 p/share in '04 + 214% Growth Rate (From Yahoo)with..

A peg ratio of 1 = stock price $42.80

Industry current PEG Ratio =4.18

Even at a Peg Ratio of 1/2 industry avg (also from Yahoo, =2.09)

That would yield a stock price of $93.30

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I CAN?T BELIEVE I WAS SMART ENOUGH TO CATCH THE BOTTOM OF THE NEXT NEW BULL MARKET!!!

 

When the Nasdaq reaches 7000, friends of mine will be jealous when they hear I stepped up on margin when it was only 1800!!!

Margined at 1800! I had assumed a fart smeller like you would have stepped up at 1100! :P

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