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"Why not spend the time under the bare blue sky?"

 

 

HERE'S WHY!!!

 

 

Itz better "to spend time under The BARE blue sky!" LOLOL

 

 

 

someone here? mentioned Fleck:

 

 

Fleck has been predicting a mid - Feb rally FUR some time.

 

HRFF's observation, based on VERY randomly selected empirical data, is that Fleck tends to be a bit early in his predix about rallies, when he's right.

 

Lettuce c what The Fates, Three decree FUR thee and me, shall we?

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They brought them back from the edge of the cliff today, so they could push them over tomorrow. Plus they got to squeeze the nervous shorts out to boot. Down tomorrow. Everyone wants to get home and tape up the windows and start working on their bunkers.

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I posted last night about how the firing of Randall Oliphant was a flashpoint for the precious metals miners. By firing the man who created the hedgebook that allowed Barrick to prosper in a bear market in gold for years, I saw it as an affirmation that the gold rally may actually be a bull market and a true turning point. I also speculated that this may induce Barrick to shrink their hedgebook and doing so may provide a floor for the price of gold going forward.

 

News came out tonight that the man hired to replace Oliphant thinks the hedgebook is bigger than he would like. Here is the article...

 

New Barrick boss says hedgebook too big

 

This is very good news for those who have a longer term focus on precious metals.

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I have a question for TE and B4 and all the people trading options very actively (it seems). Are you trading index options which trade on the options exchange, which settle in cash if held to expiration, which I get quotes on through Schwab or E-Trade, for example? I looked at some of these today, and see the implied volatilities in the prices are obscene. You are going long on these? That is, you are buying puts and calls?

 

Just want to ask. Or are you trading options on futures, which trade on the futures exchange?

 

Finally, which months are you talking about when you say bought 1 SPOO? Lead month or later month?

 

Are you always deep in the money? If so, why not just buy/sell SPY for example, on margin. That deep in the money, the risks are the same?

 

Just curious.

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Pigeon Drop: Yes -I and others buy puts and calls on the SPX and OEX generally in the money and never, ever, the front month unless and until you are long in the tooth on a trend up or dow. Futures-yes i do that too. The SPY I day trade every day in my opinion that is all SPY is worth. Why SPX or OEX sure the puts and calls are costly so is the reward and the liquidity is awesome when you want in or out you will be accomodated . Trade Safe!

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Guess we have to keep an open mind here.

 

The Bullish Scenario:

 

Tom O'Brien and Tim Ord seem wildly bullish.

 

The news was very bad everywhere, yet the bears could not take the market down.

 

Possibility of Aug. 22 highs being retested.

 

Many stock have bullish wedge formations.

 

Regarding Arch Crawford, he might have the significant turn date backwards. If Saddam resigns, gives up, etc., and the rest of the world bounces on Monday, then Tuesday will be a huge gap up, and blow out a monstrous put position.

 

Classic Options Racketeering Jam Job

 

Listen to the discussion here:

 

Thursday Program

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Another possible addition to the bull flames...

 

False Alarm?

Terror Alert Partly Based on Fabricated Information

 

By Brian Ross, Len Tepper and Jill Rackmill

 

 

 

Feb. 13 ? A key piece of the information leading to recent terror alerts was fabricated, according to two senior law enforcement officials in Washington and New York.

 

False Alarm?

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I am wondering doesn't the bid/ask spead on something so deep in the money really kill you trading this frequently? For example, TE said today he sold 1 Mar 880 Put. I looked at the quotes and see the total day's volume on that contract was 1. So he was the market, and traded with a local on the exchange. Those guys don't work free, and i would guess bid/ask spread was around 5%??? So if you want in/out you pay 5% plus commissions to get in and out? Seems very expensive.

 

I agree SPY is very liquid, and bid/ask spread is low. But on deep in the money options? Maybe OEX is better than SPX?

 

I take it the reason you do this instead of just buy/sell SPY is to get 10-1 leveraged bets? Even deep in the money, it seems you are getting 10x, while margin gets you 2x (at a lower cost)?

 

Just trying to understand.

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Doc's the man. Ozzies and cycles rule.

 

On the options thing, that's why I stick to QQQ options, and if I must trade the SPX, I use GE options as a proxy. High volume, tight spreads, reasonable premium. SPX and OEX contracts just look ridiculous to me, but I know many who make phat coin with them, so I don't judge. For small accounts, like mine, QQQ and GE treat me right.

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Another possible addition to the bull flames...

 

False Alarm?

Terror Alert Partly Based on Fabricated Information

 

By Brian Ross, Len Tepper and Jill Rackmill

 

 

 

Feb. 13 ? A key piece of the information leading to recent terror alerts was fabricated, according to two senior law enforcement officials in Washington and New York.

 

False Alarm?

Yeah, I just heard the news. My question is, just what am I going to do with all that duct tape?

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B4 and others: In the same vein as other questions here, I still have a very profitable OEX put ladder going from 415 to 440 by 5's. Buying and selling seem easy enough, but hedging seems to have me stumped. Rog today called 3:00 blowout- it made sense, but if I'm going to buy OEX ITM calls, by the time I'm done with the spread buying and selling, it would cost the exact same amount to just liquidate the puts and start again another day. I thought about buying a few Emini's to hedge, but even with a stop, it wouldn't take a whole lot of "news" for the market to collapse and leave me hanging with a bunch of expensive futures without a buyer- I'm not willing to lose $40K on N Korea invading S Korea- unlikely as it may be :o . I'm open to hedging suggestions. Thanks- as always.

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