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The MIT Experiment - Day 4


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Burn,

 

Your comment "BTW, V, what is with the big secret on how you got the AAII to chart from stockcharts? " indicates I can get this info from Stockcharts.

 

AAII is a stock aaiPharma. Do you have a symbol? And/Or do you have a symbol for IIAS on StockCharts? :unsure: :blink:

 

TIA

 

Duke

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I will stay mostly short term because that is where I am comfortable trading...3 to 5 days.

 

Ndx just popped up, looks like it set the range for today?

The volume was into resistance, so unless volume continues to rise I would *expect a pull-back to an intraday fib line maybe 1000 or 995

 

Greg, Something I have noticed on option exp. days.. If price runs down early, it often runs down at end of day too. therefore bb's time turn would appear to be accurate, if that is what he meant?

post-3-1045847841.gif

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AAII sentiment is, typically, early. Recall that before the lows in Oct (two weeks beFUR, to be exact) it had the lowest bullish readings.

 

 

 

Plus we have the Investors Intelligence numbers (courtesy of Chartcraft.com) are languishing in the 40% area. Ya r gonna need a lower figure to get a bottom.

 

The 21 day moving average of the P/C ratio has yet to roll over...

 

 

Who says HRFF doesn't pay attention to TA? LOLOL

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AAII Bear/Bull ratio, weekly chart. A move above the upper horizontal line is a Buy signal. You can't see it on such a small chart, but a spike above that line predicted the recent bounce.

 

Regards,

Vesselin

Vesselin,

 

These bull/bear chart looks like it may be useful in predicting the market. Several years is impossible to read. Can you make a couple that span 6 months? :unsure:

 

TIA

 

Duke

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Opinions wanted from hardcore T&A types.

 

Question: Do you consider the gap on the QQQs closed at this point - or close enough for all intents and purposes?

 

From my IDS posting:

 

Trader Pro is showing the QQQs gap starts at 24.49 and ends at 24.68, and may have been closed to 24.54 leaving a .05 move unfilled. The total gap was .19 in width, so about 26% of the gap remains unfilled. Not much, but on the 5 min chart, the spike that filled most of the gap appears as more of an aberration than a fill. Opinions welcome.

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All,

 

On the CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio, VIX, and VXN:

 

I have posted this several times and have never gotten a response. Vesslin, with your magic with charts you might want to verify or dispute my findings. Here is my point: A high P/C ratio, VIX, or VXN is neither bullish or bearish! The trend of these values is the key. If they are rising it is bearish and if they are falling it is bullish. Frequently a topping action is indicated when the P/C ratio is high and the trend is flat. A moving average of the P/C ratio is needed because the movements arre severe. The VIX and VXN don't move nearly that much. I see a lot of posts that are following the absolute value of these indicators with people making investment decisions based on them. Joe Duarte puts great stock in them. Perhaps someone can tell me how to do a P/C ratio or do two indicators on the same screen in SharpCharts so I can better check out what I am saying. I have the raw data going back several months and could probably do all this in Excel if I learned how to read a Help file.

 

Joe Duarte

 

PS I would like even better if someone can dispute my findings. T/A is not my thing. TIA :blink:

 

Duke

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Double F, My opinion on the qqq... I think it was close enough to be called a gap fill.... because the .318 fib line was satisfied on that drop down.

 

Greg, the pattern appears to be a bull flag......... Butt my volume chart shows volume dropping like a rock.... So unless a buy program shows I don't see a pop up......

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Classic ABC corrective pattern. From the 2/17 lows we've seen the A and the B completed this am and now we're on our way to the final corrective up before the historic sell-off.

Right on Bro.

 

Cycles from 10-13 week on down to one day are all over the place. Mixed bag. It may take a few more days to sort things out on the way to the basement.

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Couple comments. Comments to me should be pm'd to me.

 

Keep this thread strictly for short term TA charts and discussion. More general TA issues can go in Dr. Bontchev's TA forum, or LOB.

 

Many tanks!

 

I think this has potential.

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Where do you get this data? :unsure:

I asked you folks not to ask me that. B)

 

It is different than this:

 

Investor Sentiment

 

Yes. The data you're referring to is Investor Intelligence Advisor Sentiment. The chart I posted is of the Association of American Individual Investors Sentiment. Basically, yours measures the sentiment of the newsletter writers, while mine mesures the sentiment of the investing masses. Both are contrarian indicators, although the masses shift their mood more often.

 

Regards,

Vesselin

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