Guest Posted January 2, 2005 Report Share Posted January 2, 2005 I look at high volume swing lows as negative energy which will soon take over. Compare with BEAS which has quality of volume on the upside. Always higher highs on higher volume and low-volume pullbacks. More energy pushing into each swing high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 2, 2005 Report Share Posted January 2, 2005 Hey Maxxi, still expecting the 41 swing low on NEM? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I remember we were talking about a double top in January of 2004. Well, we might just have a double top of bigger proportions now..... I'm not holding my breath on the golds right now. Golds are very emotional to me and I still can't figure out why I went all in back in October only to back out a short while afterwards. Must be the emotional attachment to the precious metal. I'll be honest with you all... I'd be more pissed off if I missed out on a 20% move in gold (which I consider the only true store of wealth) than if I missed out on a 50% run in the semis. That, of course, is something I have to work on because it really doesn't matter what asset group I make money on as long as I make out better than most others. It probably boils down to the fact that I still convert paper profits into physical gold and I don't want it to run away too far before I'm done accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 2, 2005 Report Share Posted January 2, 2005 Maxxi: O'Brien's "Timing the Trade" works about 65% of the time. You just have to understand that it has limitations............ Just remember what happened at the August lows on the S & P.? Huge volume break to the downside, breaking all trendlines and prior bottoms. Market was "Steve McQueened", and never looked back.? Possibly could develop to be the biggest, longest, uninterrupted run in recent S & P history. "Timing the Trade" followers would have been left in the dust, scratching their bums, wondering what happened.............. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I beg to disagree. Tom O'Brien remained bullish... looking for a bottom in August of 2004. Just listen to his archieves. I'll tell you when I started listening to him. It was when he said on the air that he closed all his short positions in October of 2002 because the market had just done a 1:1.618. I had no idea at that time what it meant but I made sure I understood what he was talking about becuase if I did it might change my life... and it has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 2, 2005 Report Share Posted January 2, 2005 Maxxi - you didn't need an XOP back then to figure the market was at a bottom.? The trading range retest would have told you and demand showed up.? Don't buy the first rally in a steep downtrend but buy the retest... Guess what - RGLD did it's retest after the '03 selloff in May of this year. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I know Charmin I figured all that out now... but two years ago I had no idea of what to "bet" on. These days I feel pretty much like the "bookie" but I'll remain humble. The goal is to make sure I never have to work for nobody but myself. I need to be consistent in the market place. Anyone who feels they have a good system in place and want to "trade information" with me just PM or email me. I have big plans If you contribute towards me you'll be rewarded. (As you understand I can't just post all my trading secrets here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 2, 2005 Report Share Posted January 2, 2005 Guess what - RGLD did it's retest after the '03 selloff in May of this year. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> It could break out here or not... It looks about 50/50. I don't own any... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 2, 2005 Report Share Posted January 2, 2005 Maxxi: Bob Carver is going to be a guest on Monday. First, an announcement: Bob will be Tom O'Brien's guest on Monday afternoon, 3 January 2005 ( www.TFNN.com ). Tom's show airs live 4-6pm EST weekdays on selected radio stations and on the internet; shows are archived on the internet for several months thereafter. Here's Carver's chart of the Value Line Arithmetic for the last 20 years. There never was a bear market. Only corrections.......... <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Mark, I'm always grateful for your input. O'Brien is emotional for sure. Tim Ord is good but doesn't use stops... Traderfromhell puts it well: Be responsible for your own decisions! And of course that's what people do that post on M2M. We're all responsible for our own decisions. Regarding Bob Carver: He's a good writer... ... and I suppose he can convince people who don't know better. This guy missed out on a 43% rally in the XAU. He'll get his pullback in the PMs and a rally in the USD eventually. I've corresponded with him on a few occasions and he's a good guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 2, 2005 Report Share Posted January 2, 2005 RGLD 03/03/03 A 1987 look-alike: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 2, 2005 Report Share Posted January 2, 2005 Anyone trading the markets should've noticed that RGLD was in a precarious position. Of course I'm very grateful to be here @ Doc's site, but I have to question Doc's belief that it does not take volume to move a market. A few months ago I read you don't believe it takes volume to move a stock. Well, picture an object sitting still on the floor: What is going to move the object? If everything is still MACD is not going to move it... Stochastics will have flatlined as well... Are cycles going to move a stock I would like to hear Doc's explanation as to what TA could have been used in 1987 to escape the crash. My only tool would be to cut bait when the swing lows were broken on volume. When you get down to what really moves a stock it is volume, without exception. If I buy 100,000 shares of GG at the market I'll probably move the price of GG by 10 cents. If I put in an order of 100,000 shares at 5 cents below the market the stock will not move. So what moves a stock? Volume, of course AA AAPL AXP BA BAC BLS BMET C CAT COST DD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 2, 2005 Report Share Posted January 2, 2005 Will Doc admit that volume moves stocks or do you have another answer? DIS EK GE GM HAS HD HPQ IBM INTC IP JNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 2, 2005 Report Share Posted January 2, 2005 A feather doesn't move unless someone blows on it A rock doesn't move unless someone kicks it hard JPM KO MCD MMM MOT MRK MSFT PG SBC SUNW T TXU UTX VIA WFC WMT XOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 2, 2005 Report Share Posted January 2, 2005 Maxxi the question remains when does a Show of Weakness become a capitulation bottom? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I hear you're supposed to have 5 times more volume than you've ever had in the stock for a capitulation to have occured. Afterwards the stock needs to move back inside the previous trading range within a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 2, 2005 Report Share Posted January 2, 2005 Hey Maxxi, still expecting the 41 swing low on NEM? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I remember we were talking about a double top in January of 2004. Well, we might just have a double top of bigger proportions now..... <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted January 2, 2005 Report Share Posted January 2, 2005 Maxxi As per your request I give here my opinion / thoughts I never believed in the efficient market theory notwithstanding I had to defend it to get my MBA in 1981 Even in 1981 it was allready beleived that the strong form was wrong ( Illegal inside information will make you money and in Belgium it was legal at the time ) The greatest statistical problem to disprove the theory was to get honest reference and target periods ; that means to set past periods and to prove in a coming period you can do better then the market This problem was not helped by the fact that monkeys throwing darts outperformed 80% of the anal cysts all the time or all the anal cysts 80% of the time as shown in a competition in the Belgian Times newspaper It was also not helped by a computer generating a random walk and finding in the random walk perfect up channels In stocks or options by Rober Fisher 1980 edition page 26 he shows a nearly perfect correlation between the rainfall in Berne Switzerland and the Standard and Poors index in percentage point change over a 10 year period The on balance volume of Granvill stopped working about the same time everybody was reading his book So basically there are lies, damn lies and then there are statistics I once had to fit the experience curve to please a manager and once I found out what he wanted I made the statistics in an afternoon So what do we look at ? The presumptions The presumptions are wrong I seem to remember one of the presumptions is that an investor is rational Everybody knows this is not true, we sell at the bottom and buy at the top What else do we look at ? People that got rich and outperformed every body else consistently Everybody knows his favourite example Now what can we look at ? I think it was allready Newton who said that a mass in movement tended to stay in movement This means that momentum and its direction is very important and momentum can only be generated by volume So in the end we need to know volume , but preferably we need to know the marketmakers buy and sell volume as deep has he got it This brings us to two further questions We want to outperform the market But when ? every day ? every year ? at turning points ? at absolute highs or lows ? The second question is even more of an enigma ; everybody wants us to believe we cannot outperform the market ; but at the same time they want us to buy a fund and pay the manager 1 or 2 % a year to manage something that cannot be managed ? So finally I decided there are two approaches You get Markovitch diversified and get a market tracking basket of 10 stocks ( picked by throwing darts ) Or you believe you can outperform the market and put together your criteria in which volume and momentum are very inportant However one of the tenents of statistics is that everything automatically trends to the average so when you outperformed the markets for five or then years it may be time to get cautious AGK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted January 2, 2005 Report Share Posted January 2, 2005 I'm looking for feedback I'm looking for arguments to support my thesis that the Efficient Market Hypothesis is not as efficient as its supporters claim it to be. Please help me rip this thesis to pieces. I?m a technician and know TA works. It's the only way to stay consistent in the market place. I?m writing this piece for my university. The Efficient Market Hypothesis: The accepted view is that when information is released into the market place it is spread quickly and immediately factored into asset prices. Al Leeson walks into the Eccles room with the urine stain on the carpet and farts, loudly. One of two things takes place: 1) Reactions are varied. Two of those present cough loudly to mask the noise with similar follow-on sounds; one smiles ever so faintly at the floor; Ben tries to give Al a wink, but can't catch his eye, and he spends the next hour trying to decide if Al knows that he heard him; all attempt varying maneuvers to sidestep the fouled air wafting behind Al, as he's neglected to 'cut the tail'; three people leave the room after a discreet period, and one with particularly watery eyes fabricates a reason to remain absent; and the peg boys servicing the pushcart of ice water and coffee exchange smirks and then proceed to repeat the story for the next two weeks to anyone who will listen. 2) Everybody does more or less the same thing, and it's over and finished immediately. The fart is 'priced in'. I'm sure that's worth at least an A or a doctorate or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 2, 2005 Report Share Posted January 2, 2005 We want to outperform the market But when ? every day ? every year ? at turning points ? at absolute highs or lows ? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Thank you so much Ageka! Great feedback and lots of food for thought. It's interesting how someone who is short can be right at the same time as someone who is long is also right. It all depends on what time frame you're trading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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