Brisbane Bear Posted September 7, 2004 Report Share Posted September 7, 2004 rog, Its always about the economy....house prices,jobs,interest rates are all that matters...as terrible as those events in Russia are,people dont really care about it. One episode of the Simpsons said it all, people vote Republican because they do all the dirty stuff while people go about their lives...it is very true...people just turn a blind eye when it suits them ...financially speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purdymouth Posted September 7, 2004 Report Share Posted September 7, 2004 ... I can tell you first hand that most are a heartbeat away from sheer panic. Light a fire cracker in Manhattan and you'll see 500 traders with skid marks in their shorts.... and so...... Cheney: Kerry Victory Would Bring a terrorist Attack http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040907/D84V15AG0.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted September 7, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 7, 2004 BS:? Why would the fed stop now? they won't. looking at the daily chart, if 1113(200dma) gets hit again, i'll be surprised. as overbought(as if that means anything) as id charts are w/ neg divs, would expect at least a one day pullback to come. at that pt, i'm covering and going long(unless 1110 would break and hold) to ride the election erection back to 1160. We are in agreement. Scary isn't it. I'm also thinking of stepping out of the bear side (but not too long). Outside of the fact that I thought we are a wee bit over-extended on the upside, I would have reduced my short exposure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted September 7, 2004 Report Share Posted September 7, 2004 ... I can tell you first hand that most are a heartbeat away from sheer panic. Light a fire cracker in Manhattan and you'll see 500 traders with skid marks in their shorts.... and so...... Cheney: Kerry Victory Would Bring a terrorist Attack http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040907/D84V15AG0.html That is because he will initiate it. That statement might be construde as overboard paranoia. Deleate than. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted September 7, 2004 Report Share Posted September 7, 2004 BS:? Why would the fed stop now? they won't. looking at the daily chart, if 1113(200dma) gets hit again, i'll be surprised. as overbought(as if that means anything) as id charts are w/ neg divs, would expect at least a one day pullback to come. at that pt, i'm covering and going long(unless 1110 would break and hold) to ride the election erection back to 1160. We are in agreement. Scary isn't it. I'm also thinking of stepping out of the bear side (but not too long). Outside of the fact that I thought we are a wee bit over-extended on the upside, I would have reduced my short exposure. May 2005 the latest according to Larry Tomlinson. He has been ON lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted September 7, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 7, 2004 ... I can tell you first hand that most are a heartbeat away from sheer panic. Light a fire cracker in Manhattan and you'll see 500 traders with skid marks in their shorts.... and so...... Cheney: Kerry Victory Would Bring a terrorist Attack http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040907/D84V15AG0.html Cheney said the nation risks falling back into a "pre-9/11 mind-set" that terrorist attacks are criminal acts that require a reactive approach. Excuse me, but isn't the pre 9/11 mind-set mentioned here the one where GWB constantly downgraded the AQ threat after it was upgraded by the Clinton adminsitration (and not enough there either). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted September 7, 2004 Report Share Posted September 7, 2004 Cheney: Kerry Victory Would Bring a terrorist Attack How would he know?????? I hate all politicos. WE DON'T NEED NO STINKING BADGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted September 7, 2004 Report Share Posted September 7, 2004 Schaeffer in his evening letter says the Banks are about to get bonked, interesting in that BAC and C are 40% of the weighting in the BKX so if they falter the Index is fooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted September 7, 2004 Report Share Posted September 7, 2004 I don't think J6P has all that much cash at risk in the stock market. I think it's more about what he perceives his house is worth than the maybe 25k he has in the stock market via mutual funds. Let the price of real estate go down and watch the shit hit the fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted September 7, 2004 Report Share Posted September 7, 2004 ahh come on, i thought the purple heart crack was a winner! i agree with TFH that real estate is real important this time 'round. unlike 401-k's, real estate has debt attached and when the equity starts eroding, its very hard psychologically to deal with the fact that you owe more than something is worth and the fricking payment is killing you! and worse, its real hard on the ego at cocktail parties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted September 7, 2004 Report Share Posted September 7, 2004 I don't think J6P has all that much cash at risk in the stock market. I think it's more about what he perceives his house is worth than the maybe 25k he has in the stock market via mutual funds. Let the price of real estate go down and watch the shit hit the fan. J6P has no equity in said house. He refi'd and bought some depreciating asset to keep up with the Jones's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted September 7, 2004 Report Share Posted September 7, 2004 No president has EVER won re-election with the stock market down his first four years. I will repeate this every day till election day. TE there is always a first time. Badly mangled campaign by Kerry and Company. If I didn't know any better I would think they threw it. No doubt there is a first time. This market has shown us many a first time. It is up in the air. I am just wishfull thinking and thru good Karma, It might just repeate it's self once more. You're right, TE ... but owing to inflationary bias, the market has been up during MOST four-year presidential terms. The converse proposition -- that an 'up' market should ensure re-election -- definitely isn't true. For instance, the market rose during the one term of Jimmy Carter and George Bush I -- but it didn't get them re-elected. The statistical honchos who test each economic variable for predictive power say that employment stats are more pertinent than the market indexes. Of course, now that 'everybody' is in the stock market, maybe there has been a secular change. Maybe -- as James Carville might say -- "It's the SOX, stupid!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zensmoke Posted September 7, 2004 Report Share Posted September 7, 2004 Citing an unexpected drop in wireless-related sales,TriQuint Semiconductor (TQNT:Nasdaq - commentary - research) said Tuesday it won't reach its third-quarter fiscal targets. http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/tech/semis...=FREE&cm_ite=NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted September 7, 2004 Report Share Posted September 7, 2004 I don't think J6P has all that much cash at risk in the stock market. I think it's more about what he perceives his house is worth than the maybe 25k he has in the stock market via mutual funds. Let the price of real estate go down and watch the shit hit the fan. Concur. Don't quote me on this, but I think I recall that the value of U.S. residential real estate is in the range of $16 trillion, vs. $12 trillion stock market value. And much of that stock market value is held by pension funds that individuals have no control over. Americans' loss of net worth during the 2000-2002 stock market slide was bailed out via real estate inflation. You could infer that the national policy is, "at least one Bubble must be kept afloat at all times." If both Bubbles puncture simultaneously, then the reserve chute has failed. Wave goodbye and prepare to meet your Maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dharmaeye Posted September 7, 2004 Report Share Posted September 7, 2004 TNX rate with indicators.Looks like it could head further south. 40 week cycle bottom mid december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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