Sudaca Posted November 20, 2007 Report Share Posted November 20, 2007 Oh, wait.... Freddie Mac now down 13%. Is that a lot ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted November 20, 2007 Report Share Posted November 20, 2007 DHI loses 16?/share, sales are down 35%. But, "Wall Street" was predicting loss of 66$/share. This is being touted as "good news." HERE'S THE EXCUSE FOR THE HOMEBUILDERS RALLY 626080[/snapback] building just needs to slow to get supply off the market and the headlines of panic in housing also need to stop. is that why the rich are trying to buy the media. to infulence public opinion ? (murdoch FBN). the FED will not lose its cred and they will do what they do priovide liquidity. Builder's loss not as bad as forecasts D.R. Horton swings to fourth-quarter loss but still tops expectations; expects housing environment to remain 'challenging.' http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/20/news/compa...rce=yahoo_quote 626083[/snapback] Keep drinking the Koolaid BT. Yours is the hackneyed argument of the real estate industry. The homebuilders are going to zero. They are running out of cash. The bounces will continue to be gifts to the shorts. The only way this housing crash is going to end will be by making housing affordable again. That's going to take another 30% haircut from here in the most overpriced markets. And for the builders, the overpriced markets(FL, CA, AZ, NV, VA, MD) are where their problems are. Kansas City (metaphor for middle America) isn't a problem, and by the same token, none of the builders have any appreciable business there. That's because they can't make money there. Costs exceed market price. At this point there's no sign of reduction of supply or rising demand in the problematic markets. Once those two curves reverse direction we can use the vectors to predict where equilibrium will be, but even that could be a year or two out. 626094[/snapback] I dunno. Kansas City may not be a problem, but Minneapolis, Cleveland, Detroit, and Milwaukee definitely have issues. And actually Kansas City does have a problem. There was an article in the paper recently about how they have been building lots of new condos in their decayed but now razed and renovated downtown. Oversupply there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sudaca Posted November 20, 2007 Report Share Posted November 20, 2007 Fannie now down 11%. It's just a flesh wound! DOW 370,000!!!!! Go bulls!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted November 20, 2007 Report Share Posted November 20, 2007 Oh, wait.... Freddie Mac now down 13%. Is that a lot ? 626097[/snapback] So you think today's chart for them will look kinda like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted November 20, 2007 Report Share Posted November 20, 2007 Fannie now down 11%. It's just a flesh wound! DOW 370,000!!!!! Go bulls!!! 626099[/snapback] "Just a flesh wound, chief." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sudaca Posted November 20, 2007 Report Share Posted November 20, 2007 DHI loses 16?/share, sales are down 35%. But, "Wall Street" was predicting loss of 66$/share. This is being touted as "good news." HERE'S THE EXCUSE FOR THE HOMEBUILDERS RALLY 626080[/snapback] building just needs to slow to get supply off the market and the headlines of panic in housing also need to stop. is that why the rich are trying to buy the media. to infulence public opinion ? (murdoch FBN). the FED will not lose its cred and they will do what they do priovide liquidity. Builder's loss not as bad as forecasts D.R. Horton swings to fourth-quarter loss but still tops expectations; expects housing environment to remain 'challenging.' http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/20/news/compa...rce=yahoo_quote 626083[/snapback] Keep drinking the Koolaid BT. Yours is the hackneyed argument of the real estate industry. The homebuilders are going to zero. They are running out of cash. The bounces will continue to be gifts to the shorts. The only way this housing crash is going to end will be by making housing affordable again. That's going to take another 30% haircut from here in the most overpriced markets. And for the builders, the overpriced markets(FL, CA, AZ, NV, VA, MD) are where their problems are. Kansas City (metaphor for middle America) isn't a problem, and by the same token, none of the builders have any appreciable business there. That's because they can't make money there. Costs exceed market price. At this point there's no sign of reduction of supply or rising demand in the problematic markets. Once those two curves reverse direction we can use the vectors to predict where equilibrium will be, but even that could be a year or two out. 626094[/snapback] I dunno. Kansas City may not be a problem, but Minneapolis, Cleveland, Detroit, and Milwaukee definitely have issues. And actually Kansas City does have a problem. There was an article in the paper recently about how they have been building lots of new condos in their decayed but now razed and renovated downtown. Oversupply there too. 626098[/snapback] I guess you can always close your eyes, click your heels and hope the problem will go away. And if that doesn't work, we can always count on nature's self-correcting processes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 20, 2007 Report Share Posted November 20, 2007 DHI loses 16?/share, sales are down 35%. But, "Wall Street" was predicting loss of 66$/share. This is being touted as "good news." HERE'S THE EXCUSE FOR THE HOMEBUILDERS RALLY 626080[/snapback] building just needs to slow to get supply off the market and the headlines of panic in housing also need to stop. is that why the rich are trying to buy the media. to infulence public opinion ? (murdoch FBN). the FED will not lose its cred and they will do what they do priovide liquidity. Builder's loss not as bad as forecasts D.R. Horton swings to fourth-quarter loss but still tops expectations; expects housing environment to remain 'challenging.' http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/20/news/compa...rce=yahoo_quote 626083[/snapback] Keep drinking the Koolaid BT. Yours is the hackneyed argument of the real estate industry. The homebuilders are going to zero. They are running out of cash. The bounces will continue to be gifts to the shorts. The only way this housing crash is going to end will be by making housing affordable again. That's going to take another 30% haircut from here in the most overpriced markets. And for the builders, the overpriced markets(FL, CA, AZ, NV, VA, MD) are where their problems are. Kansas City (metaphor for middle America) isn't a problem, and by the same token, none of the builders have any appreciable business there. That's because they can't make money there. Costs exceed market price. At this point there's no sign of reduction of supply or rising demand in the problematic markets. Once those two curves reverse direction we can use the vectors to predict where equilibrium will be, but even that could be a year or two out. 626094[/snapback] I dunno. Kansas City may not be a problem, but Minneapolis, Cleveland, Detroit, and Milwaukee definitely have issues. And actually Kansas City does have a problem. There was an article in the paper recently about how they have been building lots of new condos in their decayed but now razed and renovated downtown. Oversupply there too. 626098[/snapback] Well then, it's even worse than I was positing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
intertrader888 Posted November 20, 2007 Report Share Posted November 20, 2007 News: record bonus on Wall Street Rumor: many firms have layoff list ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 20, 2007 Report Share Posted November 20, 2007 Article in Markitup about declining credit card quality. http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/cred...6B187435D031%7D I don't know if it's related but I have noticed a flurry of credit card rejections on subscription renewals and new subscriptions. It makes me wonder if some of the banks are arbitrarily rejecting some charges. It's a bit of a concern from my standpoint as a seller of services via credit cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alceringa Posted November 20, 2007 Report Share Posted November 20, 2007 Keep drinking the Koolaid BT. Yours is the hackneyed argument of the real estate industry. 626094[/snapback] Do, please don't scare off BT, for the following reasons- a) What does what the Customer want have to do with what Wall Street wants, Eh? (Thing about that one before you answer.) B') His avitator doesn't look like Dick van Dyke! insert.) vomit smiley here , which yours does actually and all the other stoolies are just a BIT too afraid to tell you about, Eh c) Isn't he wndy's replacement or are there other candidates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 20, 2007 Report Share Posted November 20, 2007 Say goodbye rally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrosie Posted November 20, 2007 Report Share Posted November 20, 2007 Say goodbye rally. 626107[/snapback] Keep in mind, dow 250 day MA is now SOLIDLY above us at 13073 and rising. I bet from this point forward, we stay below it, wvwn if the 13 week cycle wants to get some Kahunas....which I doubt it can in this environment. Clearly, any good news seems to be met with selling. We all know this based on docs great cycle info. Say goodbye rally is right.......what rally? I must have blinked and missed it. Happy thanksgiving is right I tell ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrosie Posted November 20, 2007 Report Share Posted November 20, 2007 Funny moment on CNBS this morning which some of you may have saw: Kernan is talking to the europe guy about all the issues that were limit down and Joe ask what Limit down was. The guy proceeds to tell him about how they stop trading. Joe then asks the guy when they are going to stop manipulating the markets over there..... Truly a classic CNBS moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokahay Posted November 20, 2007 Report Share Posted November 20, 2007 Say goodbye rally. 626107[/snapback] Rig for silent running. Prepare for depth charge attack. We're going down farther! maybe if the bulls shoot some earl and some stained unmentionables out the tube this problem will go away. maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sudaca Posted November 20, 2007 Report Share Posted November 20, 2007 FRE down 17% now. They have turned to Goldman to help them get capitalized. Hey, I can capitalize them, too: FREDDIE, YOU'RE EFFED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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