DrStool Posted November 28, 2007 Report Share Posted November 28, 2007 Well, apparently it was just time. Bear market rallies are vicious, and tend to last 3-6 weeks. They are designed to suck all the bulls back in and force the bears to cover their shorts so that market insiders can get short in size for the next leg down. As Granville said so well, the rally that fools the majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bungster Posted November 28, 2007 Report Share Posted November 28, 2007 Yep, but yesterday the pigmen left their fingerprints on the murder weapon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr.Correll Posted November 28, 2007 Report Share Posted November 28, 2007 i probably should have sold my global mutual funds into this rally but hopefully for my sake we are going higher for the short term. Then i might stab a few of those 2x inverse china funds like FXP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 28, 2007 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2007 One of the biggest factors was simply time. As of yesterday the 13 week cycle low was 6 days overdue. That was one of the reasons I was so aggressive about covering shorts over the past few days. By Monday AM we were down to just one, and I will stick with that one unless it violates trend resistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 28, 2007 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2007 as we have discussed before, the double funds need to be traded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdporter Posted November 28, 2007 Report Share Posted November 28, 2007 The last time the financial media called for rate cuts, the Fed granted them. Will this time be any different? mob rule for the pigsters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linrom Posted November 28, 2007 Report Share Posted November 28, 2007 The trend line from 2003 is still intact and unlike many stocks this one never broke down. It's now coiling up for a big move. The impetus could be falling corn prices? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sudaca Posted November 28, 2007 Report Share Posted November 28, 2007 Someone's been reading the Stool... Libor feels strain as year-end looms By Michael Mackenzie in London Published: November 28 2007 16:42 | Last updated: November 28 2007 16:42 The baton of tension in the money market will pass to one-month paper on Thursday as the countdown to year-end funding pressures enters its final four weeks. Starting Thursday, one-month dollar and euro London Interbank Offered Rates, will cover the year-end turn that occurs on December 31, and as such, Libor is expected to surge. Libor is an offered rate, a level at which banks lend to each other. In the present situation, traders report a distinct reluctance among banks to lend beyond a one-week period and say conditions are approaching the levels of stress seen back in September when the credit squeeze initially flared. ?People are waiting for the day of reckoning,? said George Goncalves, anal cyst at Morgan Stanley. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8447b5b4-9dd0-11...00779fd2ac.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mies van der Rump Posted November 28, 2007 Report Share Posted November 28, 2007 E-mail update i get from a CDO/Securitization research firm: London-based asset manager Cheyne Capital is planning to transfer assets from its troubled $7 billion Cheyne Finance structured investment vehicle into a new vehicle as part of a deal to stave off realizing substantial losses in the short term. This was one of the players Wells holds (or maybe held, now) paper from in their Master Trust for their MMF's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bondtrader Posted November 28, 2007 Report Share Posted November 28, 2007 The trend line from 2003 is still intact and unlike many stocks this one never broke down. It's now coiling up for a big move. The impetus could be falling corn prices? 628718[/snapback] nice chart... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sudaca Posted November 28, 2007 Report Share Posted November 28, 2007 Tough to see, but they did tick up today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mies van der Rump Posted November 28, 2007 Report Share Posted November 28, 2007 LOL...just noticed the dunce cap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdporter Posted November 28, 2007 Report Share Posted November 28, 2007 Huge bounces in FRE and FNM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I_Am_Madness Posted November 28, 2007 Report Share Posted November 28, 2007 I've been watching this chart for days and saw this coming. I'm ashame to say i didn't act when the break occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4shzl Posted November 28, 2007 Report Share Posted November 28, 2007 ``Commercial real estate is a full-blown bubble that feels very much at a bursting point,'' said Christian Stracke, an anal cyst in London at CreditSights Inc., a fixed-income research firm. ``There's a fairly toxic mix of factors at work.'' The cost of derivatives protecting investors from defaults on the highest-rated bonds backed by properties more than doubled in the past month, according to Markit Group Ltd. Prices suggest traders anticipate defaults rising to the highest level since the Great Depression, according to anal cysts at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut. The seven-year rally in offices and retail properties ended in September when prices fell an average of 1.2 percent, according to Moody's Investors Service. Banks worldwide are holding $54 billion of unsold commercial mortgages, according to data compiled by New York-based Citigroup Inc. that includes fixed and floating-rate debt. Glumberg It's not the unsold paper I'd be worried about, but the the stuff that's been spun into CDOs and then leveraged to the hilt. As this stuff goes bad, credit will only get crunchier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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