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#91 SideshowBob

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Posted 01 March 2003 - 01:51 PM

Bob Carver over at marketclues says the Fed has quietly been buying the long bonds for over a week in order to keep interest rates down-have a read yourself he makes a good case.  I agree with him don't look for rates to go up anytime soon.  I noticed in the last hour yesterday a lot of hedge funds buying large and I mean large blocks of puts in the SPOO'S and QQQ tying that in with a favorite indicator of mine that is calling for a gap down in the futures tomorrow night suggests to me that Monday is D day so watch the futures tomorrow when they open-War you think??  could be!  Trade Safe!

brian4,

If that's true we really are becoming Japan. The other day bloomberg mentioned Japanese shares were up on speculation that government would buy bank stocks before the end of the fiscal year to make them appear more valuable. Absolutely amazing.

The OEX put/call ratio has been shooting higher, while the equity put/call has been shooting lower. See Carl Swenlin's piece on this:

http://www.decisionp...20110oexPC.html

Now see the current charts:

http://www.decisionp...filiate/pc.html

Note how this is the highest the OEX p/c ratio has been since the top last March. I've been slowly adding to my short holdings, I'll fully commit once the down leg begins.

SB

P.S. I agree with Piledriver -- the PPT is here to stay -- don't complain about them, figure out how to make money in spite of them (easier said than done -- at least for me).

#92 Bizarro-Greenspan

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Posted 01 March 2003 - 01:58 PM

BARE,your perceptive insights,couched in your
unique style,bring great mirth to my droll search for the
facts of the impending(we ASSume) financial imbroglio.

I particularily enjoyed this snippet of vivid imagery,

"We shall reap the whirlwind.All of us,bear and bull alike,
will be lucky not to be born,or driven like straws in a tornado,
into the side of the barn by it."

I believe the correct spelling of the word "born",in this case,
is,in fact,BORNE,as in past tense of BEAR( but,certainly not
BARE,for he will probably outlive all of us due to his inate
survival skills,honed in the bountiful Pacific Northwest).

Thanks fer the copious yucks.

,

#93 machinehead

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Posted 01 March 2003 - 02:11 PM

Here's one of Mark's 27-year-old motocrossers, sharing his wisdom on how to reduce risk (actually he's 33 now, but was 27 when he got started in the late 90s):

"This year, [Kinetics Internet Fund manager Ryan] Jacob says, his mantra is all about reducing and managing risk."

"It's a dramatic shift in management style," said Jacob, who attributes the change to the realization that the "go-go days of the '90s" are not about to return. "We decided to more actively trade the positions that we held in order to realize profits sooner and cut losses quicker."

Ding! The light bulb goes on. More active trading is win-win: you get your profits sooner, and cut your losses quicker. Take this profound concept to the limit: trade every tick, and you rule the world (or at least the freakin' markets) with zero risk.

Why didn't we think of this sooner? :angry:

Internut miracles
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#94 wndysrf

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Posted 01 March 2003 - 02:18 PM

Sorry to spoil the party, guys...

But Monday's IBD shows too many stocks breaking out of H & S patterns, going to even higher highs.

Check out COH, APOL, COCO, etc.

Just too many to list. No way we are going lower with so many stocks making new highs every day.

Proves that there are way too many shorts out there, being overpowered by The Matrix.

Best to be 50% short Piledriver's list, and 50% long the breakout favorites in a rangebound market, but 100% long as long as the MACD still points to higher prices, and 100% short when we are in a confirmed "waterfall".

For now, the bulls are in control. Downtrend hasn't been re-instated yet.

Scoreboard for the last two weeks:

Tim Ord: 2
E-Wavers: 0
Astrologists: 0
Cmappers: 0
PermaBears: 0

OK, I'll shut up for now......
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#95 mjkst27

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Posted 01 March 2003 - 02:25 PM

For now, the bulls are in control. Downtrend hasn't been re-instated yet.

Scoreboard for the last two weeks:

Tim Ord: 2
E-Wavers: 0
Astrologists: 0
Cmappers: 0
PermaBears: 0

OK, I'll shut up for now......

Good post, Wndy. This is the type of thing I was talking about in my earlier post. Congrats to Tim Ord for getting it right the last couple weeks, but IMO there's no way I would have been comfortable getting long 2 weeks ago and then hanging on to collect my winnings. The tape looks real heavy to me, and every time it starts to sag some mysterious bullish force comes in with 2x4's to prop it up. Maybe it's just me with these thick coke-bottle bear-goggles I have on, but I'd rather have been flat. I have a feeling one of these times when Ord is bullish and wrong, he's going to be spectacularly wrong. Not picking on Ord, just picking on the (strictly correct and very seductive) notion that "it is possible, even easy, to make coin long in a bear market".

#96 phatbubble

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Posted 01 March 2003 - 02:32 PM

re PPT jams: you can often see this happen with streaming futures data - the pace of completed trades picks up as each ask is magically filled, and the price relation of the futures to the SPX gets skewed upwards by 4-6 pts until the followup buying comes in. when i'm around on IDS i'll try to warn if it looks like it's happening. if anyone has a better signal, for f*ck's sake let us all know.

anyway, they've picked up the pace to the point that the SPX is getting a syringe of viagra in the jugular almost every day. and why, pray tell, is that? what big awful thing might happen without these incessant 12 point potato launches? we're at a point where they almost can't do it any more often. what then?

mark, write when spirit moves you. we love how you write, not what or how often or how many words. :)
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#97 K Wave Rider

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Posted 01 March 2003 - 02:41 PM

Debka reporting today

"Pentagon advises US media companies to evacuate their correspondents from Baghdad at once".

Many other countries already issued evacuation orders this last week.

If not This weekend, then not too much longer, it appears.

Sounds like it aint gonna be pretty in Baghdad this spring.

#98 Pee Brain

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Posted 01 March 2003 - 02:47 PM

turkey's speaker voided the vote to approve use by u.s. forces on grounds that a majority present did not vote in favor. the vote was 264-250 for, but there were 19 abstentions.
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.

#99 Fartpolio Manager

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Posted 01 March 2003 - 02:49 PM

For now, the bulls are in control.  Downtrend hasn't been re-instated yet.

Scoreboard for the last two weeks:

Tim Ord:  2
E-Wavers: 0
Astrologists: 0
Cmappers:  0
PermaBears: 0

OK, I'll shut up for now......

Good post, Wndy. This is the type of thing I was talking about in my earlier post. Congrats to Tim Ord for getting it right the last couple weeks, but IMO there's no way I would have been comfortable getting long 2 weeks ago and then hanging on to collect my winnings. The tape looks real heavy to me, and every time it starts to sag some mysterious bullish force comes in with 2x4's to prop it up. Maybe it's just me with these thick coke-bottle bear-goggles I have on, but I'd rather have been flat. I have a feeling one of these times when Ord is bullish and wrong, he's going to be spectacularly wrong. Not picking on Ord, just picking on the (strictly correct and very seductive) notion that "it is possible, even easy, to make coin long in a bear market".

TFNN Archives

Go back to 12/2 on O'Brien, Tim Ord did not recognize a blowoff top, although he was suspicious...

#100 Rubadub

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Posted 01 March 2003 - 02:58 PM

Great news for the bears today:

MAJOR Al-QAEDA RAGHEAD caught in Pakistan.
Deemed to likely break the back of Al-Qaeda network.
U.S. Northern base established in Turkey.

We are Green for Go to kick Iraq's ass bigtime.

Lighting my Minorah and praying for war.

The BEAR is alive and well.

Down with Iraq and Down with the DOW!

#101 TheDeepBlueSea

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Posted 01 March 2003 - 03:14 PM

If that's true we really are becoming Japan. The other day bloomberg mentioned Japanese shares were up on speculation that government would buy bank stocks before the end of the fiscal year to make them appear more valuable. Absolutely amazing.

The end of fiscal year in Japan is March 31.

Propping up the Nikkei before the end of year close of the books has become something of an annual tradition in Japan.

This is done so that the Japanese banks can appear to meet their 8% BIS reserve requirements as Japanese banks are allowed to count their stock portfolio as part of these reserves. Until recently, these stock holding were valued at purchase price. Now they're valued at "mark-to-market". This has created a lot of stress.

Here it will be mutual and especially pension funds that will experience the same kind of stress.

It's "back to the future".

#102 DrStool

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Posted 01 March 2003 - 03:15 PM

Endgame 2/28/03

Between February 24, and March 3, the US Treasury will have issued $131 Billion of Notes and Bills, of which $27 Billion will be new money. We know where a lot of it will come from. Uncle Al and friends told us. They will do whatever is necessary to support the markets. We, in turn will need to keep an eye on the Feed Index. It is approaching a breakout at the same time as the bond market is going back into melt-up mode. One does not have to be a genius to add it up. In Al's Bubble World 2 + 2 = 5. We stand in awe as both commodities and bond prices melt-up at the same time. Bubble World even beats Ripley's.

Doc describes the dangers of the moment, examines the Feed and monetary data, chronicles the market cycles, and tells us where this shipwreck is heading, with hot pictures of naked stock charts, the Long Bong Hit, Uncle Buck and the Golden Stool. Will Uncle Buck ever get out of his sick bed? Will the Golden Stool ever recover, or is the move over now that Cramer is on board? Drop by your stock proctologist's office, and get the inside picture, all in the Anals tonight.

Stoolies, log one in. If you're not a stoolie already, become one Now! And don't forget to join Doc during the market day in Stooltrading Beta as he plots the market's twists and turns for you, in advance yet!

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#103 TheDeepBlueSea

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Posted 01 March 2003 - 03:17 PM

Endgame 2/28/03

Between February 24, and March 3, the US Treasury will have issued $131 Billion of Notes and Bills, of which $27 Billion will be new money. We know where a lot of it will come from. Uncle Al and friends told us. They will do whatever is necessary to support the markets. We, in turn will need to keep an eye on the Feed Index. It is approaching a breakout at the same time as the bond market is going back into melt-up mode. One does not have to be a genius to add it up. In Al's Bubble World 2 + 2 = 5. We stand in awe as both commodities and bond prices melt-up at the same time. Bubble World even beats Ripley's.

Doc describes the dangers of the moment, examines the Feed and monetary data, chronicles the market cycles, and tells us where this shipwreck is heading, with hot pictures of naked stock charts, the Long Bong Hit, Uncle Buck and the Golden Stool. Will Uncle Buck ever get out of his sick bed? Will the Golden Stool ever recover, or is the move over now that Cramer is on board? Drop by your stock proctologist's office, and get the inside picture, all in the Anals tonight.

Stoolies, log one in. If you're not a stoolie already, become one Now! And don't forget to join Doc during the market day in Stooltrading Beta as he plots the market's twists and turns for you, in advance yet!

Stagflation.

And I have no nostalgia for the '70s. :ph34r:

#104 brian4

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Posted 01 March 2003 - 03:24 PM

Mark-I luv you dearly-but I will disagree with "the last 2 weeks" post. Two weeks ago the Dow was 7908.80,SPX-834.89-NDX-982.09- Friday-Dow-7891.10-SPX-841.15-NDX-1009.74. That Mark is not a rally that is a prop job and a poor one at that-the markets have been consolidating at the bottom of a wedge which is always bearish. Friday all 3 of the above closed on support at the bottom of said wedges. Now when when markets turn with a vengeance they do it when stocks ARE looking to break out-that is where the trap is sprung and the downward velocity comes from the same applies on a breakout to the upside when the conditions are reversed. Now we have both stated our points of view about next week and only one of us will be right. An old friend of mine once said-"being wrong on the markets is ok-just don't be wrong for long". Whatever happens next week we will both adapt in a milla second that is what good, surviving, profitable traders do! In defense of the e wavers- Elliot Wave gives you a range in which the turn should occur and that means anywhere in the range given it will turn-the same applies to cycles both tools are right more than they are wrong. Astrology as a tool is not as reliable as cycles or e waves but you have to pay attention to what they say because when guys like ARCH are right their calls tend to be spectacular and when they are wrong there is generally a big move against their call right or wrong it is the MOVE that a trader wants and adapts too. Glad to see you are feisty and back on track-Trade Safe!

#105 wndysrf

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Posted 01 March 2003 - 03:37 PM

Thanks, Brian4.

The thing I learned from you is that you take your profits immediately, and cover immediately when you are wrong.

I just have a bad feeling about a massive rally when there are so many shorts out there....

I would feel better if the stochastics were way up there and we were overbought, but unfortunately, looks like we are closer to a situation where we are breaking out of a bottom consolidation.

I'm staying flat for now, until we determine which way this thing cracks.

Too nerve racking to be in the market now.....
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