SusanJBear Posted December 18, 2002 Report Share Posted December 18, 2002 And this UCLA physicist STRONGLY disagrees with Alan Bubblehead Greenscum who says bubbles are hard to spot. Time and time again I have seen that the people who pioneer in a field and push it forward are often professionals in a different field - who can offer some new perspective. Maybe this guy is one of them. By studying various crashes, he has come to recognize the "statistical signature" of a bubble and immiment crash. (By the way, Sornette has been very much in touch with the EW guys for several years. In Prechter's book "Market Analysis for the New Millennium", Prechter's chapter on manias talks about a recognizable 'fingerprint' of a mania, so to speak, which distinguishes them from healthy bull markets.) Enjoy! Science News Daily article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted December 18, 2002 Report Share Posted December 18, 2002 Interesting article. He sees the SPX falling to 700 by "the first half of 2004." If the SPX hasn't fallen farther and faster than that, I'll be completely shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted December 18, 2002 Report Share Posted December 18, 2002 Thanks Susan very interesting. A number of years ago I read a very good article on fractals and the stock market. Seems the E-Wavers are trying to tap into that. Doc's cycles are another way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yoshaviah Posted December 18, 2002 Report Share Posted December 18, 2002 He is wrong. They are not predictable. THEY ARE PLANNED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SusanJBear Posted December 18, 2002 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2002 Interesting article. He sees the SPX falling to 700 by "the first half of 2004." If the SPX hasn't fallen farther and faster than that, I'll be completely shocked. I was wondering about that too. It may be a case where we must progress through part of the prediction to be able to better fine-tune the part that remains in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasyAl Posted December 18, 2002 Report Share Posted December 18, 2002 The article was published in Quant. Fin., 2, 468-81 (2002). For people who are really interested in reading the original article. Here is the link for PDF document. The title and abstract of the paper are : The US 2000-2002 market descent: how much longer and deeper? Didier Sornette1,2,3 and Wei-Xing Zhou1 1 Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA 2 Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA 3 Laboratoire de Physique de la Mati?re Condens?e, CNRS UMR 6622 and Universit? de Nice-Sophia Antipolis, 06108 Nice Cedex 2, France Received 4 September 2002 Published 2 December 2002 Abstract. A remarkable similarity in the behaviour of the US S&P500 index from 1996 to August 2002 and of the Japanese Nikkei index from 1985 to 1992 (11 year shift) is presented, with particular emphasis on the structure of the bearish phases. Extending a previous analysis of Johansen and Sornette on the Nikkei index `antibubble' based on a theory of cooperative herding and imitation working both in bullish as well as in bearish regimes, we demonstrate the existence of a clear signature of herding in the decay of the S&P500 index since August 2000 with high statistical significance, in the form of strong log-periodic components. In the next two years, we predict an overall continuation of the bearish phase, punctuated by local rallies; we predict an overall increasing market until the end of the year 2002 or until the first quarter of 2003; we predict a severe following descent (with maybe one or two severe ups and downs in the middle) which stops during the first semester of 2004. Beyond this, we cannot be very certain due to the possible effect of additional nonlinear collective effects and of a real departure from the antibubble regime. The similarities between the two stock market indices may reflect deeper similarities between the fundamentals of the two economies which both went through over-valuation with strong speculative phases preceding the transition to bearish phases characterized by a surprising number of bad surprises (bad loans for Japan and accounting frauds for the US) sapping investors' confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plantigrade Posted December 18, 2002 Report Share Posted December 18, 2002 Somehow I knew the markets were going down severely. (BTW, "sornettes" in French, means "tall stories", or what is sometimes technically referred to on bear boards as "bull-sh**" :wink2: ) From Sornette & al.'s predictive model, at http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/p....asp#prediction Apparently he extrapolates a growing instability, from the megaphone pattern observed on the DOW at the end of its topping diamond. A sophisticated way to say this irrational market is unstable, as history teaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SusanJBear Posted December 18, 2002 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2002 Somehow I knew the markets were going down severely. <_< Do I too get a diploma in Physique de la Mati?re Condens?e or something ? Plantigrade, I really REALLY dig your "group portrait"! :grin: Yes, a number of us using TA (and some FA) have been certain the markets are headed into the toilet. But it sure is nice to see somebody out there independently developing a mathematical bubble proof; it lends more credibility to TA, IMHO. Almost all economists are very derisive of TA. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted December 18, 2002 Report Share Posted December 18, 2002 Somehow I knew the markets were going down severely. Do I too get a diploma in Physique de la Mati?re Condens?e or something ? (BTW, "sornettes" in French, means "tall stories", or what is sometimes technically referred to on bear boards as "bull-sh**" :wink2: ) Mais non, vous etes Diplomate de l'Institute de Merde. Hey, does anyone know how to get the circonflex sur "e"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogBoy Posted December 19, 2002 Report Share Posted December 19, 2002 I went to the site and looked around. His chart is so far off that my dog could have drawn a better SP chart with his pecker lifted up against a wall. Notice that 1000 plus rally going well into 2003. Think that's gonna happen ? If so lets get together for nice game of poker. My place or yours. Yada yada yada..... Another smart whipper-snapper who thinks he knows the market. I think I'll go back to my nap now. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz....................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
getsoutalive Posted December 19, 2002 Report Share Posted December 19, 2002 Noticed that he doesn't actually use his theory himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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