The End Posted December 16, 2002 Report Share Posted December 16, 2002 The move down from the August high is an exact triple zigzag. Triple zigzag are corrective moves not impulsive or at least by G Neely?s definition. If you go back in my submissions, it is shown there. Of course, the wave endings can be manipulated to get a slightly larger wave three. However, that does not meet the requirement that one wave should extend. G Neely states that the extended wave should be 1.618 * the next longest wave. However, I am willing to accept 1.382 in certain circumstance. In Elliott?s original work, the third wave was not allowed to be the shortest. One wave had to extend but as far as I can see, he did not define by how much. Putting it all together, I suspect there is no alternative to the fall from August being a ?B? wave. The ?B? wave having taken the July low out, suggests that the FLAT below the HEAD & SHOULDERS neckline is an IRREGULAR FLAT. Neely describes IRREGULAR FLATS as common wave two formations. I have labeled it as such, that is wave two in a larger three. Zoran -----Original Message----- From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of the end Sent: Monday, 16 December 2002 07:37 AM To: [email protected] Subject: Zoran's post of Dec 14, 2002 Great work! I do have a question however. How can the move from the August high be a B wave when it is clearly a 5? I count it as a B wave as well but, i have ignored the impulsiveness of it. Probably not a good idea. Your thoughts? For people who look at e-waves and could not see anything but an impulse for the move from the august highs to the october lows. This answer to me from zoran makes alot of sense. It allows for us to be wave three. The question know is where in wave three are we. I believe we are in 2b of three with 2c to follow and then wave three of three down from Jan.ish to mid to late march. You have no idea how i have been wrestling with the move which i called B. I hope this helps my fellow stoolies. -------------------- Can you picture what will be, so limitless and free.Desperately in need of some strangers hand in a desperate land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 16, 2002 Report Share Posted December 16, 2002 You know I know nothing about Elliott, but it seems to me that those who seem most successful with it, like SG and Pile, tie in sentiment with their analysis. I believe I read something to the effect of Prechter saying that it can only be understood in terms of the big picture. It seems to me that, an analysis of wave structure without considering context may miss the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclist Posted December 16, 2002 Report Share Posted December 16, 2002 o.k. so what happens next? The post seems to interpret what happened. What do Elliot suggest from here. Thanx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoodwinked Posted December 16, 2002 Report Share Posted December 16, 2002 Pretcher and allot of ewave guys often say that sentiment in the collective is subtle in the beginning. They note shows like Survivor, Fear Factor etc, they also note movies like Armageddon, Judgment Day and the like. They give the impression that we are subliminally draw to the actuality that we collectively choose to deny in the early stages of change. Pretchers take on all of this is best summed up as Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mksloth Posted December 16, 2002 Report Share Posted December 16, 2002 Thought Zoran a wave structure over the weekend that was looking for SPX in the high 500s by 1Q03... Is that now repudiated or still valid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted December 16, 2002 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2002 OK, here's how it might be. Doc and a few hundred others know that i lost a small fortune listening to Prechter a year ago. When SG came on the scene here, i thought he was just repeating Hochberg/Prechters statements. And id did seem that way for a while but, i see that SG's got a little of his own ideas as well. kudos to ya SG. A broken watch is right twice a day. NOT SG , but, HOCHBERG Prechter is and has been on wave three of three for months. He reported two-three months ago "crash imminent"! still has not happened. Yet he is regarded as the best e-wave guy around. He is better at selling himself then predicting, i can tell ya that. Where the hell are we? Ok As mentioned in the opening post we are in b of an abc two of three, with three of three to follow,IMHO. wave b down hopefully, will end near 872ish (not below) then a rally either HIGHER then 954 or around 954 (spx), for wave c of two. That should get us into January. I must point out that we may not even come close to 954, (914) might be highest we go. We are in a bear market and repeatedly top counts have NOT been achived. From there the infamous wave three of three should take hold and we go and break the oct lows sometime in the march-april period. Wave four of three, or five would rally us back and then by oct-nov 2003 we should hit the 600's on the spx. Closer to 600 then 650. That's my rant. I will sleep well knowing alittle more then i knew yesterday. Peace Michael Just opened a Barolo 94', to celebrate my understanding. It's not as young as i thought it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 16, 2002 Report Share Posted December 16, 2002 actually it fits in with 10-13 weeker bottoming Dec 19- Jan 9. Actually I hope so b/c I just came across a new windfall of amo so I can load up more at that rally peak in Jan. Whooo, hoooo....bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 16, 2002 Report Share Posted December 16, 2002 How can the move from the August high be a B wave when it is clearly a 5? Hello e-Stoolies, I too have been wrestling with the e-wave interpretation and certainly don't have a clear idea of what is going on. However, I believe there is a possible answer to this question; the potential B move would have to terminate around the 23rd of September and the C leg would then itself be an expanded flat. This is a bit tenuous though it would seem to fit but I have no firm view on whether it is right I think the problem is that there are so many cross-currents here with the utilities, BKX, SOX, NBI, etc, all giving considerably different pictures. Nevertheless, on balance I believe whatever that correction was it is now behind us and that we are going down hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted December 16, 2002 Report Share Posted December 16, 2002 WARNING: Here's what I wrote about Idiot Wafers on another thread. If you're a big fan and sensitive, I'd skip it. Which is exactly what I mean by mumbo-jumbo. Look at that complex series of letters and numbers. Completely and utterly meaningless. I might as well just read the German version; I'd get as much out of it. Why on earth should I base my trading decision on such witchcraft? It is not math; it is alchemy. Whether he gets lucky this time or not, I pity those who would make their trades based solely on "count" because they may not be so "lucky" the next time and the time after that. Just stole this off of Doc on a different thread. "You know I know nothing about Elliott, but it seems to me that those who seem most successful with it, like SG and Pile, tie in sentiment with their analysis. I believe I read something to the effect of Prechter saying that it can only be understood in terms of the big picture. It seems to me that, an analysis of wave structure without considering context may miss the point. " I translate this to me, that they probably use the Fib and support structure of the charts and effectively toss out the count, unless it fits with their feeling (which I translate to experience, pattern recognition and holism.) These Elliot's are merely obscuring a pretty simple forests with a lot of crooked trees. There are multiple ways to count because the method itself is a sham. If I were Houdini, I would expose it as such but I have neither the time nor the inclination. However, in my small way, I will attempt to be a voice in opposition to it until I am proven wrong. ThorAss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 16, 2002 Report Share Posted December 16, 2002 With respect ThorAss I fear you are missing the point. Those looking to Elliot for cast-iron forecasting certainty are going to sorely disappointed. Confidentially I can tell you that such a method does not exist. But though Elliot can usually not tell you what will happen it can give very valuable clues about what may happen and what can not happen, or at least that is my experience. But it seems to me that your characterisation of the labelling system as incomprehensible gibberish indicates that you have not taken the trouble to learn anything of substance about the subject prior to slinging your hammer. And did you know Isaac Newton was an alchemist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted December 16, 2002 Report Share Posted December 16, 2002 Nothing wrong with a little alchemy... I'll let someone turn lead into gold for me all day long. Actually, Thor, it does seem that many e-wave guys are whacked... BUT the good ones are often uncanny in their calls. Larry Tomlinson has been very good most of the time I've followed him. TE says Glenn Neely was very accurate through 2002 -- I can't personally vouch for Neely, but TE's a stand-up guy. Our own Simple Guy has been pretty dang good, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted December 17, 2002 Report Share Posted December 17, 2002 I like the accuracy of the 38%, 50%, 62% stuff. Friggun amazin. Counting waves on the other hand, I have no clue. Tomorrow mornings economic numbers may throw a wrench into this upswing today. I still have some options for Friday that could use a little ursine hosing of some bulls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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