aussiebear Posted March 17, 2009 Report Share Posted March 17, 2009 http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussiebear Posted March 17, 2009 Author Report Share Posted March 17, 2009 http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/ http://www.kitco.com http://www.kitconet.com/webcharts/base_metals.html Energy futures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussiebear Posted March 17, 2009 Author Report Share Posted March 17, 2009 Looks like Yahoo All Ords chart is out of action again. So far it's up for the index, +1% led by Energy +2.2% followed by Consumer Staples, +1.7%. No reds so far but Telecomms is flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitall Posted March 17, 2009 Report Share Posted March 17, 2009 Swordfish from xtrends by K wave (but NOT THIS k Wave) QUOTE On 3/9/09 we had a record high in the ISEE of 220. This is the highest it has ever closed, going as far back as 3/2006. This indicates extreme bullish sentiment in retail. The previous spike high in the ISEE of 206 was on 12/29/08. Eight days later, on 1/6/09, SPX topped out at 944 and went to 666 in 2 months. We are now 7 days after the highest spike high in the ISEE ever. Let's see if we get a similar drop now. ------------------------------------------- Capitall Swordi posted about this extreme bullish sentiment on the ISEE. However, Cassi just posted on IDS Mon. that there is a big predominance of bears on the AAII sentiment. Does anyone know the history of these two sentiment indicators? Has either one been predictive in the past? Is it common for these 2 sentiment indicators to be opposite of each other, as they apparently are now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitall Posted March 17, 2009 Report Share Posted March 17, 2009 Swordfishfrom xtrends by K wave (but NOT THIS k Wave) QUOTE On 3/9/09 we had a record high in the ISEE of 220. This is the highest it has ever closed, going as far back as 3/2006. This indicates extreme bullish sentiment in retail. The previous spike high in the ISEE of 206 was on 12/29/08. Eight days later, on 1/6/09, SPX topped out at 944 and went to 666 in 2 months. We are now 7 days after the highest spike high in the ISEE ever. Let's see if we get a similar drop now. ------------------------------------------- Capitall Swordi posted about this extreme bullish sentiment on the ISEE. However, Cassi just posted on IDS Mon. that there is a big predominance of bears on the AAII sentiment. Does anyone know the history of these two sentiment indicators? Has either one been predictive in the past? Is it common for these 2 sentiment indicators to be opposite of each other, as they apparently are now? Oh, I see. The ISEE is some kind of revised put/call indicator. http://www.ise.com/WebForm/viewPage.aspx?c...&menu0=true Wonder if it's any better than the put/call indicator that Wndy kept posting on Clearstation over and over after Doc threw him off the board here in Oct. 07. That indicator was consistently wrong. Month after month, tons of puts were being bought, which is supposedly bullish, indicating that the market was going to go up. Well, you know what happened if one bought in Oct. 07 and held, waiting for the market to go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted March 17, 2009 Report Share Posted March 17, 2009 Here is the SNL skit on Tim G, good for a few chuckles. SNL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 17, 2009 Report Share Posted March 17, 2009 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2009/03/16/m...onal-edition-2/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rationalize Posted March 17, 2009 Report Share Posted March 17, 2009 Got Bottom ? Monthly fisher transform suggests 'almost but not quite'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussiebear Posted March 17, 2009 Author Report Share Posted March 17, 2009 Quite a bit of strength today with All Ords breaking through 3300 resistance to close +2.9%. Many sectors had considerable gains: the leaders were REITS +5%, Financials +3.8% and Energy +3.2%. Healthcare rose the least, +0.7% with Telecomms next, +0.8%. The miners did moderately well: BHP +2.9%, RIO +2.5% and in the golds, Newcrest +1.2%, Lihir +2.4% and Newmont -0.5%. Solid gains for the oils: Woodside +2%, Santos +3% and Caltex +3.3%. Varying results in Asia: China +3%, Honkers +1.1%, India -0.1% and Nikkers +3.2%. Over to UK/Europe: Footsie DAX CAC 40 http://finance.yahoo.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swordfish Posted March 17, 2009 Report Share Posted March 17, 2009 Hey Stoolies: and idea. Having in mind: a ) latest UST auction b ) FOMC meeting this week with a main topic: BUYING more assets +UST(??!!!) c ) lighter calendar this week I think that is possible (even if it not consistent with TA) that we rally a little bit to 780-800 this week. Keep in mind that BoE already done that. They will not be the first. more and more central bankers will going to do that For b ) check this: Bernanke May Need ‘Massive’ Asset Buying to Counter Contraction March 17 (Bloomberg) -- Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Federal Reserve policy makers may have to ramp up their purchases of mortgage securities and other assets after the economy and job market deteriorated further since they last met. The Federal Open Market Committee, gathering today and tomorrow in Washington, needs to redouble its efforts after the central bank’s balance sheet shrank 17 percent from a $2.3 trillion December peak, Fed watchers said. The retreat came even as Bernanke acknowledged the chance that the unemployment rate will exceed 10 percent for the first time in a quarter century. This week’s FOMC meeting could mark a shift toward more aggressive monetary expansion to fight deflation after demand waned for many of the Fed’s existing programs. One top consideration is an increase in the pace and size of a $600 billion program to buy bonds issued and backed by U.S. housing agencies such as Fannie Mae, anal cysts said. Other measures could include everything from purchases of Treasuries to corporate bonds, Tilton said. The Fed has already agreed to work with the Treasury on implementing a program to revive consumer and business loans, which the Obama administration has said could reach $1 trillion. The Fed is scheduled to issue its statement around 2:15 p.m. tomorrow. “The FOMC statement is the natural place to announce when such an increase would occur,” http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home this is interesting also: Bernanke’s view is if the Fed provides liquidity, credit will flow and lower the price of loans, feeding pent-up demand for homes, cars, credit-card borrowing and capital expenditures by business in the depths of the worst recession in a generation. anal cysts are skeptical. “The concern about the TALF is not so much the investor interest in it, but the availability of eligible” securities to buy, given lack of consumer demand for new debt, said Tilton of Goldman Sachs. Consumers will borrow if they see solid job prospects and rising wealth, economists said. Right now, neither condition is in place. The unemployment rate in February was 8.1 percent, up almost 2 percentage points in the past six months. Household wealth fell by a record $5.1 trillion last quarter. Personal savings as a percent of disposable income has risen every month since August. A less effective TALF would lead the Fed to use its authority to purchase assets and expand the supply of money, some Fed watchers said. “I would be surprised if they didn’t continue buying another $500 billion of mortgage-backed securities in the second half given the downside risks to the economy and the fact that the mortgage market is still in a shambles,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted March 17, 2009 Report Share Posted March 17, 2009 Here's my updated wave count. I feel fairly confident in the red count, yet am still somewhat hesitant due to this being a 4th wave. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: 4th waves are a pain in the @ss. But the 2nd wave was a fairly complicated affair, so it would be in keeping for the 4th wave to be a more simple sharp. Anyway, don't be surprised if this wave doesn't make a straightforward move (depicted by the gray count), and instead tries to confuse the hell out of everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cassiopeia Posted March 17, 2009 Report Share Posted March 17, 2009 Go figure, Quads back up over a 1%. No fear. Bools, etc. Green count looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusKow Posted March 17, 2009 Report Share Posted March 17, 2009 T_Slim, posted reply to your vol question in M2M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alceringa Posted March 17, 2009 Report Share Posted March 17, 2009 So, the US Gubmint, presumably in the person of the Treasury Secretary, owns 80% of AIG and can't prevent absolutely scandalous bonus payments, or sack the entire BOD and Top Executives, who appear to be acting criminally. Imagine how much power the average shareholder of the average company really has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summoner Posted March 17, 2009 Report Share Posted March 17, 2009 Pretzel thought u might like this chart from Francis at astrocycles he does a great job with these indicators. The fear is decreasing as we go lower compared to 2003....bearish. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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