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IDS World Markets Thurs 20th September 07


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I'm staying with partial long BRIC exposure (Brazil, Russia, India, China). First of all because of the price action, and secondly, because there is a decent chance that Korea will be taken out of the FTSE EM Index and upgraded to the Developed Market Index. The "rejiggering" of all that slosh of EM funds would boost BRIC exposure for sure...

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do you know who really owns the Federal Reserve?

 

Since they are not audited it is hard to find this information..

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Federal Reserve Act, Sec. 2, I believe, states that banks essentially own the Federal Reserve system.

 

And the Fed's website touts that our Fed is "independent," i.e. they don't have to listen to the President or anyone else.

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hui 5 day cycle projection 394-95 is hit.

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What was LW's big number on the HUI? 400? :unsure:

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401.69 was the 2006 high. The high today so far was 401.02. Close enuf for gubermint work.

 

The 401 high was a perfect Fib target back in 2006, so it's doubly-important.

 

The last breakout in the HUI came in late 2005 when it got above the late 2003 high at 262 and tacked on an extra 50% in 5-6 months (11/05-5/06). There was no re-test of the breakout. It just kept running until the rally completed.

 

BTW, the ATH on the XAU (5/06) was 171.51. High today so far: 171.51. I'd say a direct hit. Key long-term level on the XAU is 155-157, which is now 10% lower. That's was the 1987 and 1996 double-top. Yep, from 20 years ago.

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*DJ Bernanke:Govt-Backed Programs Must Not Bail Out Investors

 

I think this guy is certified bi-polar

 

what in the hell was the 50 basis pt cut for then?

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It's like giving a 7-year-old a $100 bill to go to the grocery store and telling him that he should only buy whole grain products, fruits and veggies. The reality is he'll come back with 60 candy bars.

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Depends where the 7yr old kid is located. If it's in south east L.A., he'd probably buy a gun, andd then come back with the whole frickin' store.

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I was reading Shel Silverstein's Where the Sidewalk Ends the other night to my son at bedtime. We came across Smart, and I couldn't help but laugh thinking that this might have been inspired by Bernanke as a child.

 

Smart

 

My dad gave me one dollar bill

 

Cause I'm his smartest son,

 

And I swapped it for two shiny quarters

 

Cause two is more than one!

 

 

And then I took the quarters

 

And traded them to Lou

 

For three dimes -- I guess he don't know

 

That three is more than two!

 

 

Just then, along came old blind Bates

 

And just 'cause he can't see

 

He gave me four nickles for my three dimes,

 

And four is more than three!

 

 

And I took the nickels to Hiram Coombs

 

Down at the seed-feed store,

 

And the fool gave me five pennies for them,

 

And five is more than four!

 

 

And then I went and showed my dad,

 

And he got red in the cheeks

 

And closed his eyes and shook his head--

 

Too proud of me to speak!

 

 

by shel silverstein

 

 

http://www.srp-enterprises.com/starrie/silverstein.htm

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That book was one of my favorites as a kid :)

 

I loved Boa Constrictor... I;ve posted it here a few times before.

 

Applies to Goldman's Global Alpha... just replace "Boa Constrictor: with "Credit Crunch":

 

Oh, I'm being eaten

By a boa constrictor,

A boa constrictor,

A boa constrictor,

I'm being eaten by a boa constrictor,

And I don't like it--one bit.

Well, what do you know?

It's nibblin' my toe.

Oh, gee,

It's up to my knee.

Oh my,

It's up to my thigh.

Oh, fiddle,

It's up to my middle.

Oh, heck,

It's up to my neck.

Oh, dread,

It's upmmmmmmmmmmffffffffff . .

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Just looking at the $CAD chart. It's right at the top of intermediate channel. Probably hit parity and correct a bit, but the chart ultimately looks headed for 1.03-1.04.

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I am glad that I rolled my maturing Canuck bonds last month. :D

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It looks like a BAD DAY for the USD. :blink: Is this the beginning? Check silver. :o

 

SI Z07 13085 13640 13035 13610 + 505

CD Z07 98600 100090 98550 100020 + 1360

GC Z07 7296 7465 7289 7448 + 153

GC V07 7240 7394 7235 7387 + 157

TX Z07 79110 79140 78460 78460 -730

US Z07 N/A 111230 110310 111050 -190

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Would like a little help understanding money supply and liquidity. We know from Doc?s work that the Fed is NOT adding liquidity to the system through open market operations. A look at the chart below shows M1 in contraction. However, M2 and M3 money supply growth are both exploding. In August, M2 grew at a 6.7% annual rate (a 4 yr. high) and M3 grew at 14% (a 34 yr. high).

source: John Williams: http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs

 

What type of money supply affects the stock markets the most? What type of money is needed to assist the commercial paper markets?

Thanks for any thoughts.

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