B4 The Bell Moonday March 29, 2004

[Lock Limit Down]

Bloomberg shows the ten-year T-note yield up another 4 basis points, to 3.87%. This after another bad day in the JGB market in Japan. (It's all one trade.)

 

The ten-year T-bone is the pin on the Bubble II grenade. Yank it out, and (with a slight delay) the whole Bubble goes bang.

 

I have retreated to my bunker. So, bring it on.

Rising long yields will kill this demon once and for all

If this keeps up I expect to see a very very bad employment report on Friday.

 

[Bearman]

the s-p pre mk jam is on + 6 1/2 pts

 

too bad about bonds and doolar

 

Symbol Open High Low Last Change

GC J04 4219 4229 4200 4215 -7

SI K04 7720 7755 7655 7695 -22

TX M04 8927 8947 8890 8892 -36

I1 M04 N/A N/A N/A 110610 unch

EC M04 12105 12145 12025 12140 + 48

US M04 114000 114060 113190 113210 -150

TY M04 115040 115070 114270 114285 -105

 

The EOQ jam and IRA game is in full bloom

 

One of these times they will get their Clock cleaned

 

 

Tic-Tok Tic Tok

[Guest yobob1]

Yobob:

 

Thanks for posting that article.

 

The assessment that gold will decline in the event of a simultaneous dislocation on all fronts seems to ignore the prospect of wars or other forms of strife that may be likely to break out globally over these economic dislocations. Anybody who thinks the world is going to become more stable while the gears are flying out of the engine hasn't thought this all the way through. If it all starts to come unraveled at once, I seriously doubt that the dollar will be perceived as a safe haven, while Freddy and Fanny implode, taking the world down the drain along with them.

I would still argue that within the US the dollar , as the only recognized medium of exchange, will retain utility. Debt is the problem that won't go away other than buy repayment or default. Both will reduce monetary measures. It wasn't the fed reducing money in the 30's it was the implosion of debt. The fed was trying to increase the money supply but was simply overwhelmed. That was then and this is now. Every possible methodology of measurement puts debt in a new stratosphere. The faith in monetary authorities to correct their egregious errors of over-accomodation by adding to those errors is severly misplaced. It will appear that they are all powerful and able to leap over these tribulations right up to the time that it is proven they can't which is likely to occur suddenly without any new warning. The warnings are all around us blaring like so many ignored air-raid sirens. the debt bombs will fall soon enough.

 

You might pay attention to the fact that the pending pension reform legislation designed to forestall the necessary funding of underwater pensions is stalled out and may not get passed in time to save the major corps form the horror of actually having to correct their enormous errors in pension assumptions.

[Madame Wrecked Him]

Inflation may well be tamed in the manufacturing sector, where the cheap labor of China and other developing nations has pushed down the costs of finished products like computers, apparel, furniture and electronics. But it is pronounced in what Yamada describes as "the essentials people need on a daily basis" such as food and fuel.

Inflation in the things we need

Deflation in the stuff we don't need.

 

That's why it's really stagflation.

[Abby Justa Colon]

Bullish hysteria abounds.

 

From Friday on....at the work place, tv, newspapers...I have never seen it first hand like this!

 

I have seen huge numbers in bullish consensus data before, but there would always be many people in the media not in agreement...not this time!

 

One anal-ist even said that an important market low was put in last week and we will see a repeat of last March. He said if you are not in the market, you had better get in.

 

At least their are some clearer heads at the Stool.

 

Monday morning ramp-ups are ususally good from a psychological stand point for bears....

 

We shall see.... Good Luck to All this week!!

[Guest yobob1]

Lower economic activity = lower energy use.

 

NEW YORK, March 29 (Reuters) - Utility company TXU Corp. (NYSE:TXU - News) on Monday said its TXU Energy division would permanently shut down eight Texas power plants and temporarily mothball four other units, citing the continued slump in the state's wholesale power prices.

TXU to shut 12 Texas power plants amid slump

[machinehead]

We shall see.... Good Luck to All this week!!

And .... good luck to Al this week.

[brian4]

Good Morning Crew- at the open for twenty minutes. Watch 1118 where my stop is if they can take that out then 1120-25 becomes the target. Failure to take out 1118 and the party is over.

[Guest yobob1]

We can thus conclude that the banking system is far from being in healthy shape as suggested by Greenspan, but on the contrary it is very vulnerable to a sudden weakening in economic activity.

 

Also, contrary to Greenspan's view, the banking system is not well positioned to expand credit since there is very little savings left. Any further bank credit expansion means an expansion of credit out of thin air. Obviously, this type of credit expansion will only further undermine the health of the economy and ultimately the bank's own health.

 

In fact, since a large chunk of credit was created out of "thin air" there is high likelihood that it will evaporate back into "thin air." It seems to us that against the background of rapidly deteriorating real fundamentals the Fed will be forced in the not too distant future to reverse its stance, thus setting in motion the inevitable liquidation of various artificial forms of life that currently comprise bank balance sheets.

 

How Healthy Are the Banks?

[Accident]

Re: power plant shutdown...I would propose that those plants are being shut down b/c they are old and inefficient. I used to cover this sector of stocks before they blew up...The power building boom created a glut of power, particularly in areas where permitting restrictions are lax. The newer, more efficient power in Texas is diplacing the older, less efficient power....hence, the price of power has come down. Once the older power has been shut down, the market will tighten back up and power prices will climb again. Think Wal-Mart...it happens in every business.

[Lock Limit Down]

Trin opens at .24!!!!!!!!

Only opened lower once in the last year ...early October

 

Meanwhile over in bondland ...long yield up 1%

The Trumen Show continues

[Stinky]

Brian:

 

Are you saying its over for the market longer term or just for the day?

 

Do you think downward forces will trump end of month flow of money to stocks etc?

 

Thanks, Stinky

[Yaryman]

One way to avoid inflation.

 

"Basically, this approach allows the BLS mathematicians to substitute lesser price items for those that might have had price increases. They assume, for example, that if tuna is pricey, you might just switch to cat food."

 

But don't trust us. Here, in the government's own words, is an example of the "geometric mean estimator" at work:

 

Substitution can take several forms corresponding to the types of item- and outlet-specific prices used to construct the basic indexes. . . . Thus, in response to an increase in the price charged by a store for a certain brand of ice cream, a consumer could respond by:

 

Redistributing purchases:

To another brand of ice cream whose price had not risen.

To a larger package of ice cream with a smaller price per ounce.

To ice cream at a different store where ice cream is on sale.

To a brand of frozen yogurt.

 

The consumer also could respond by postponing the ice cream purchase until a later date."

 

I guess if gasoline gets too expensive you can just walk 18 miles to work, leading to NO inflation

[thesun]

Money is being taken out of the housing stocks to move this market up.

 

Can this market move higher without the housing stocks?

 

Will the market stay up when they try to raise the housing stocks.

 

I am short RYL.

[brian4]

Stinky- we have not yet seen the bottom of this decline-to change back into a bull trend they must climb over 1135-won't happen in my opinion.