Hiding Bear Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 Welcome to B4 The Bell! The market was saved and pulled back from the precipice - by $40 oil and $3 gas at some West coast gasoline stations. So those storm warnings can be taken down for a few days, maybe more. China has a housing bubble too. China's Boom May Be Building Toward a Bust Some economists say the runaway housing market reflects a bigger problem: an economy starting to spin out of control. http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-chin...a-home-business Gary North on Rising Rates Gold is down. Stocks are down. Bonds are down. What?s going on here? http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north272.html The Wrong Corporate Model - or what Bush didn't learn at school There are lots of ways to explain why the Bush administration has made a hash of its Iraq policy. To my mind, however, this is fundamentally a story about management failure and a corporate leadership style that the first MBA president and his crew of former CEOs brought to Washington. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/artic...-2004May11.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 If Not Now When? Your Golden Stool, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is loaded. Even if you are not a goldbug, you should check out the Golden Stool. It's in your Anals daily. Take a subscribatory and download the Golden Stool RIGHT NOW! 30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted May 12, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 Mortgage Data Seasonally Adjusted data for week ending 5/7/04 Composite Index Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago Market 742.2 780.9 -5.0 788.6 1417.8 Purchase 494.3 482.5 2.4 432.2 415.2 Refi 2184.6 2516.0 -13.2 2861.6 7250.0 Fixed-Rate 507.0 555.7 -8.8 583.2 1297.2 ARM 5666.3 5495.2 3.1 5087.5 3942.7 Conventional Market Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago Total 1088.2 1134.2 -4.1 1152.9 2078.3 Purchase 753.3 729.1 3.3 650.9 587.7 Refi 2449.6 2781.3 -11.9 3193.9 8138.6 Fixed-Rate 722.9 788.0 -8.3 836.0 1890.6 ARM 8576.4 8231.9 4.2 7651.0 5926.5 Government Market Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago Total 164.8 191.4 -13.9 180.6 315.7 Purchase 124.0 130.6 -5.1 119.7 168.6 Refi 787.9 1118.5 -29.6 1109.5 2560.9 Fixed-Rate 146.7 168.3 -12.8 161.9 308.6 ARM 558.9 693.3 -19.4 587.8 470.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesun Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 If China and Japan?s central bankers decide to stop buying T-bills with newly created yen or yuan, this means that their monetary policy will change. There will be less demand for T-bills, which means that the U.S. Treasury will have to pay higher rates in order to attract replacement lenders. That would send a signal to carry traders: sell long-term debt assets (bonds) and pay off short-term loans. So, long-term rates will rise alongside short-term rates under present circumstances, assuming that the carry traders are major players today. With short-term rates at historically low levels for three years, this is a safe assumption. http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north272.html What if China and Japan not only stop buying, but actually start selling? By June or July we will be able to see how much the Tigers are willing to pay in national pain to get bushman out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 Buck Topping Out Bong Yield Rise To Pause Uncle Buck and the Long Bong Hit, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is now loaded. Take a subscribatory and get the latest whiff of Uncle Buck and the Long Bong Hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 Rockwell musta been reading the Anals the last few months. Do you want history, or real time insights? Take a subscribatory to the Anals now and find out what next quarter's conventional wisdom will be, today! Click the link below to get in RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 Trade defecit at record high...dollar needs to drop...gold needs to pop. Also...watch TSN today. Yesterday, the US banned all imports of poultry from Asian countries (we are ripe for a retaliatory response)...and now this... Wednesday, May 12, 2004 - Page updated at 01:38 A.M. New strain of bird flu discovered at B.C. farm VANCOUVER, B.C. ? A new strain of bird flu has been found in the Fraser Valley, different from anything seen in the area before, officials said yesterday. Scientists can't rule out the possibility the strain is the one responsible for the recent deaths of people in Asia, but they urged residents not to panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow just said... "the risk going forward is that we see weaker jobs data...I don't think that's going to happen, but it could." Prior to that, a segment on CNBS focused on the effect high oil prices have on employment. This is SPECIFICALLY DESIGNED AND ORCHESTRATED TO BRING THE TEN YEAR YIELD BACK DOWN INTO THE CHANNEL. They are going to try to bounce the home builders...be careful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 Overnight China failed to sell $4.3b of short bills. Only 65% were sold. Investors continue to fear huge rate increases as China needs to slow out of control lending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 Fed President speaks 1/2 hour prior to market close yesterday to sooth concerns over imminent rate hikes...market moves up into the close. Another Fed President speaks this morning on the Financial Propoganda Network 1/2 hour before the open, soothing concerns about higher interest rates...Futures move higher. WHAT MANIPULATION????????????????????????????? Desparate times call for desparate measures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesun Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 Overnight China failed to sell $4.3b of short bills. Only 65% were sold. Investors continue to fear huge rate increases as China needs to slow out of control lending. WOW this is big. China is making it look like they are being forced to stop buying USA paper. My earlier post today. If China and Japan?s central bankers decide to stop buying T-bills with newly created yen or yuan, this means that their monetary policy will change. There will be less demand for T-bills, which means that the U.S. Treasury will have to pay higher rates in order to attract replacement lenders. That would send a signal to carry traders: sell long-term debt assets (bonds) and pay off short-term loans. So, long-term rates will rise alongside short-term rates under present circumstances, assuming that the carry traders are major players today. With short-term rates at historically low levels for three years, this is a safe assumption. http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north272.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 After reading around the "smart" bear writers, I'm once again taken aback at how narrowly focused and adamant any and all are over their staked out positions without regard for the gaping holes in their arguments. I refer mostly to the inflation/deflation debate, what to expect because of the said environmentt, and how to protect yourself or indeed profit from the outcome. As to gold/silver, stocks and bonds, put out any outcome and there is a writer that has demonstrated with great amounts of TA and rationale just how that outcome is going to be achieved. Spin the wheel and throw a dart, one of them is bound to be right at some point. Like all gamblers they boast about their winnings, but neglect to include the losses. Case in point is Puplava's recent Storm Watch update. Now I have to admit I have a certain amount of respect for Puplava and indeed he was one of the writers that inspired me to start really digging into things years ago. In this issue he puts forth some powerful arguments regarding price inflation and where you want to be because of it, but once again there's an open manhole on the path to Nirvana. While economists and central bankers and the financial markets fret over deflation, Average Joes worry about how they are going to cover rising living costs. Do they have to borrow more money from their credit cards, extract more equity out of their homes, or downsize the family SUV? Inflation expectations are starting to rise. In due course, these expectations could generate additional inflation, especially if the "buy now, because tomorrow it will cost more" mentality begins to set in. Once that sets in, higher wages and much higher prices come next. As long as asset prices keep inflating, most people simply shrug and bear the higher costs. If their home values or their 401(k) plan inflate, everybody is happy. When they decline, they worry?translation: loss of confidence Puplava has negelected to address that in fact real wages continue to fall and the "Average Joes" have no slack in their budgets to pay higher prices. In addition given where their current debt levels are and the ludicrously easy credit standards employed to raise the debt levels to where they are, there's very little left in the way of additional debt available to most. Yes they are forced to pay higher prices for certain things, but in order to do so they are cutting spending elsewhere. I seriously doubt Joe is going to stock up on milk because he thinks it will be higher next week. Nor is Joe going to stock up on houses or cars because he's been blindly doing just that over the last several years. Indeed, now that the refi and tax surges are past, there is no new additional conusmer spending stimulus in the pipe. On balance then the price increase in essentials is leading to reduced volumes on non-essentials while simultaneously the higher priced essentials will lead to reduced volumes in those as well. If you tell me that consumers will burn just as much fuel at $2 a gallon as they will at $1 a gallon, you will be wrong. No it won't be a 50% drop, but there will be a marginal per capita decline. If you tell me that consumers will consume just as much milk at $4 versus $2 a gallon, you'll be wrong. I can tell you from an anecdotal standpoint, I'm beginning to see the decline in non-essential purchases. The auto industry overall is in big trouble. Sales of the profitable vehicles (trucks & SUVs) seem to be falling off a cliff. High gas prices are fueling that. It also appears that this is not fueling a significant surge in most fuel efficient vehicles. Sure hybrids are selling, but their percentage of the market is insignificant. I'm also seeing fewer people in diners. One of my frequented lunch spots just shaved 18% off their daily lunch special price in search of volume. What this is leading to is the dreaded volume decline in both goods and services. Initially price increases can disguise that, but the dirty little secret is that fixed costs become an increasing percentage of each unit as volumes decline. And that my friends is where the rubber meets the road. In our current economic situation with the money spigots running wide open, the deadliest component of fixed cost has soared to parabolic, blow off levels. That my friends is debt and it is exactly why the entire planet is headed towards the worst deflation humanity has ever experienced. Oh sure we're seeing price inflation for now, but it can't and won't last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 Refi Machine Shorts Out MoGauge Drops Again Once a week Doc fills you in on the all important MoGauge , straight from the MoGauge Bankers Ass. The MoGauge reflects a major source of liquidity in the financial bubble world and is an important indicator of future market behavior, often forecasting broad market movements months in advance. Take a subscribatory and download your MoGauge RIGHT NOW! 30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearman Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 yobob1 I hate to admit I agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWD Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 Caught a minute of "Squawk Box" on my way out the door. Guest host some biggie at Goldman Sachs named Hormat. They wheeled this guy out to declare that the Abu Ghreib torture scandal represented a relatively trivial aberration on the part of a few inadequately-supervised troops and how he didn't appreciate the distraction from the wonderful work performed by the majority of US troops over there. What's this guy selling and what's in it for Goldman Sachs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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