RobertTheBruce Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 edited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertTheBruce Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 .edited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 That break of 1088 turns out the lights-crash alert! stop 1095 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 The Algerian oil minister the day before let slip that only Saudi had any spare capacity and it might only be about 500,000 bpd. Boys and girls peak oil has arrived. You have to remember that each second ticking by older fields produce less and less. To assume inflation one has to assume the fed has control. They don't. All the printing presses in the world are worthless without some transmission mechanism to put that money in the hands of those that will spend it. There is none. Fiscal spending won't do it - it will only further drain the economy. Debt levels are too high to engineer additional debt of significance to be taken on. Bear in mind when I say inflation I am talking mostly price inflation. There is no question we have had monetary inflation for the last 100 years or so since 1913. But even that has it's limits, which I think we have effectively reached. In today's world where debt is money, when the debt is defaulted or repaid you get deflation. The repay part is why I think the dollar may hang around a little longer. Most of the previous experience in history will be worthless in the sense that we are now in an economic situation that has never existed before on the planet. Throw out the rules we have to make them up - as we go along. Butters, I have held for a long time that the faith in the collapse of the dollar may be misplaced under the current all fiat system. Gold, I still think will do it's duty as the best store of value over time, but the dollar may have a surprising amount of utility left in it. IMO if the dollar collapses all fiat collapses and that may indeed be our fate in the coming years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zensmoke Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 QQV 26.44 VXN 27.97 VIX 19.19 VXO 19.54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain's Log Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 Good morning Crew-Lots of news this morning-the U.S. has passed massive sanctions on Syria-now since that is liable to piss them off do you really think they will tighten their Borders with Iraq-I don't. Thought the same thing myself. This admininstration never ceases to amaze me in it's ability to misplay a winning hand. Same thing with Cuba where IMO, you need to enrich the masses to make them hunger for freedom. I am waiting for Emperor CalGeorgular to declare his horse a senator. Anybody know if he has a sister ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 After reading around the "smart" bear writers, I'm once again taken aback at how narrowly focused and adamant any and all are over their staked out positions without regard for the gaping holes in their arguments. I refer mostly to the inflation/deflation debate, what to expect because of the said environmentt, and how to protect yourself or indeed profit from the outcome. As to gold/silver, stocks and bonds, put out any outcome and there is a writer that has demonstrated with great amounts of TA and rationale just how that outcome is going to be achieved. Spin the wheel and throw a dart, one of them is bound to be right at some point. Like all gamblers they boast about their winnings, but neglect to include the losses. Case in point is Puplava's recent Storm Watch update. Now I have to admit I have a certain amount of respect for Puplava and indeed he was one of the writers that inspired me to start really digging into things years ago. In this issue he puts forth some powerful arguments regarding price inflation and where you want to be because of it, but once again there's an open manhole on the path to Nirvana. While economists and central bankers and the financial markets fret over deflation, Average Joes worry about how they are going to cover rising living costs. Do they have to borrow more money from their credit cards, extract more equity out of their homes, or downsize the family SUV? Inflation expectations are starting to rise. In due course, these expectations could generate additional inflation, especially if the "buy now, because tomorrow it will cost more" mentality begins to set in. Once that sets in, higher wages and much higher prices come next. As long as asset prices keep inflating, most people simply shrug and bear the higher costs. If their home values or their 401(k) plan inflate, everybody is happy. When they decline, they worry?translation: loss of confidence Puplava has negelected to address that in fact real wages continue to fall and the "Average Joes" have no slack in their budgets to pay higher prices. In addition given where their current debt levels are and the ludicrously easy credit standards employed to raise the debt levels to where they are, there's very little left in the way of additional debt available to most. Yes they are forced to pay higher prices for certain things, but in order to do so they are cutting spending elsewhere. I seriously doubt Joe is going to stock up on milk because he thinks it will be higher next week. Nor is Joe going to stock up on houses or cars because he's been blindly doing just that over the last several years. Indeed, now that the refi and tax surges are past, there is no new additional conusmer spending stimulus in the pipe. On balance then the price increase in essentials is leading to reduced volumes on non-essentials while simultaneously the higher priced essentials will lead to reduced volumes in those as well. If you tell me that consumers will burn just as much fuel at $2 a gallon as they will at $1 a gallon, you will be wrong. No it won't be a 50% drop, but there will be a marginal per capita decline. If you tell me that consumers will consume just as much milk at $4 versus $2 a gallon, you'll be wrong. I can tell you from an anecdotal standpoint, I'm beginning to see the decline in non-essential purchases. The auto industry overall is in big trouble. Sales of the profitable vehicles (trucks & SUVs) seem to be falling off a cliff. High gas prices are fueling that. It also appears that this is not fueling a significant surge in most fuel efficient vehicles. Sure hybrids are selling, but their percentage of the market is insignificant. I'm also seeing fewer people in diners. One of my frequented lunch spots just shaved 18% off their daily lunch special price in search of volume. What this is leading to is the dreaded volume decline in both goods and services. Initially price increases can disguise that, but the dirty little secret is that fixed costs become an increasing percentage of each unit as volumes decline. And that my friends is where the rubber meets the road. In our current economic situation with the money spigots running wide open, the deadliest component of fixed cost has soared to parabolic, blow off levels. That my friends is debt and it is exactly why the entire planet is headed towards the worst deflation humanity has ever experienced. Oh sure we're seeing price inflation for now, but it can't and won't last. "Eventually the Fed's choice will be either to continue onto Weimar, or attempt to slow the speed of credit expansion so as to avoid collapse of the currency. But if the Fed engineers do attempt to slow monetary growth, then just the slowing itself will induce the prices of various sectors to DEFLATE. Thus serious price deflations are coming to our economy in the upcoming years even though the Fed will be pushing credit/debt expansion and outright monetization to ever-higher levels." "This is what I mean when I talk of deflation visiting us in tandem with inflation. I mean that prices will be seriously deflating in various sectors, not the actual supply of money throughout the economy. The two most crucial sectors susceptible to price deflation will be the asset classes of equities and bonds." The Cassandras and the Optimists Weimar? How so? Germany lost the first world war...The winning powers said that Germany had to pay for it all...In Gold...The German Government printed money to buy Gold and the money made it's way back to Germany and into the fractional reserve banking system which quickly multiplied it into monumental amounts of credit...the more Gold Germany bought with free money the more that came home to roost...the more the credit supply expanded...the more that wages and prices inflated...and the more that Interest rates would rise... The US is not doing Weimar at all...In the US it is consumers who owe...unless the authorities change the law to allow consumers to inkjet their debts away there is not going to be Hyperinflation. The Hyperinflation story appears to be social engineering...Don't worry we have a printing press...They are nothing but liers...but everyone believes the printing press trick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 I'm not kidding about crash alert the window closed 15 minutes ago and this thing is falling with no natural pressure on it and the Astro today just gets nastier as the day progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zensmoke Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 Top 40 of the NAZ100 stocks all RED MSFT INTC CSCO QCOM NXTL AMGN EBAY DELL ORCL CMCSA MXIM IACI SBUX BIIB AMAT XLNX LLTC BBBY GENZ VRTSE YHOO ERTS APOL BMET SYMC CHIR TEVA KLAC PAYX INTU ALTR PSFT AMZN AAPL GILD FLEX PCAR DISH FISV COST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 stop 1090. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 Cant believe the DAX-June is trading at a 10pt premium to the Cash..STILL !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zensmoke Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 Pretty Heat Map http://screening.nasdaq.com/heatmaps/heatmap_100.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 opening now for 90 minutes-this won't be pretty, seats in the upright postion, Helmets and flack jackets on, buckle up ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 Dark Docky is 1063 on your radar screen?? it is on mine-sometime in the next 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zensmoke Posted May 12, 2004 Report Share Posted May 12, 2004 J Philippines:Iraq Evacuation Possible After Worker's Death MANILA (AP)--Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo ordered her government Wednesday to decide if Filipinos working at U.S. military bases in Iraq should be evacuated after one was killed and four others wounded in a mortar attack. She said if 4,000 Filipino workers in Iraq "can't be adequately secured, they must be transferred or evacuated to safer areas. This must be made clear to the employers and authorities concerned." One Filipino was killed and four others injured in a mortar attack Tuesday on Camp Anaconda, a U.S. military base north of Baghdad, Philippine officials said. Dow Jones Newswires Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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