depends Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 This little chart stays on the buy side ... butt you knew that. We need a down day like Monday already! Hedging worked again. Had some short stops get hit this AM and took profits off of longs into the rally. End of day was a very small loss, but I think I put on some good positions short as this is a BS rally which is still up on light volume. I caught this rally early and the week has been positive nicely. Shorting into this thing makes me think I need my head examined, but I got a feeling that one morning soon we're gonna see the opposite of this mornings gap and a quiet but relentless downward force will gently take over. Just as this upward turn was quick and decisive I think it will pay to be prepared for the next down turn. My hedge longs are all vig volume stocks which I can throw off easily. My shorts are ... well ... stinky, crappy, overvalued crap that got drawn up in the hysteria like proud nails and I have the hammer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Einstein Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 Harmony steels for mass job cuts By: Stewart Bailey Posted: 2004/04/02 Fri 19:21 | ? Mineweb 1997-2004 JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- Harmony Gold has finally given in to the pressures of the stronger rand, announcing today that it was considering cutting 5,000 jobs and 6 percent of its production at loss making South African operations, in an effort to widen its operating margins. The job-cuts are an ominous portent for the local gold industry, which is struggling to remain profitable as the rand price gold remains stubbornly low. It is thought that as much as 60 percent of local gold production capacity is unprofitable on a total cost basis. http://trinity.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/UNID/S...CU?OpenDocument I believe this is good news, the SA goverment needs an excuse ( pressure), the rand looks like it could be putting in a double top for this move. I believe I read a while back that DROOY was "threatening" to close some unprofitable mines if the RAND did not soften ( resulting in layoffs). watch the rand and jump on the SA miners if it breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 2-1 Canucks end of one over san jose -wowza doesn't get better than this! My read on this is simple like Depends the market is like a pinball game goes tilt on monday. Today Sirios and Killa joined us two Bullz it seems why here, why us , i have no idea. Soup my favorite Pit Bull went right for the throat but hey give these guyz some slack they are like Rabbit ears they will bring in local TV if you enjoy watching thru a dish rag! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stained jeans Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 Today Sirios and Killa joined us two Bullz it seems why here, why us , i have no idea. My bet is it is a contrarian indicator, B4. A day or two away from the top'd be my guess. Course I'm guessing you already knew that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
depends Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 like a pinball game goes tilt on monday We need a down day to see if this rally has any legs. Today - into the gap up a lot of names were down hard. like NFI for one. I know I saw others - QCOM - is one. This means to me that some fat pigs are being liquidated and nobody is noticeing cause the majority are bouncing. So a good down day is needed to see what floats. Today good news was good. Soon good news will be bad. I stay short and have been adding to some shorts that are weak or up only slightly on light volume. Lots of these out there. I caught the last few short opportunities and another is just around the corner IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 We have the same housing mania here that the U.S. has and yep purchasers are using ARMS and putting squat down maybe 5 grand. My wife and I live a small sea side community about a mile from the U.S. border. Contractors right now are buying old crappers and demolishing them to put up new ocean view homes that are on average two blocks from the water. Sure they have great views but the contractors are paying an average of $285,000 for a 33 x 130 lot and then they have to demolish the old home. They then build a 3 level average 3,300 sq ft home of 2 x 6 construction at an all in cost of about $150.- @ sq ft so the cost to the contractor is about $780,000 Canadian which pushes the asking price to $895,000 now the dick head who buys one of them has to pay a 7% federal tax on the price plus a average $11,000 provincial tax plus closing costs so it is pretty close to a Million $ but hey the Banks stand in line to give them money. If he or she lose their job in a dual income home they are fooked but since they have squat equity they can easily put the keys on the kitchen counter and split which will indeed happen. Cost of these homes new 10-11 years ago about $470K and their was no federal tax then-we got a long way to fall baby a long, long way! Is that a 7% tax like a sales tax on home purchases? In NJ, we have only a transfer tax of about $3,000 paid by the seller on a $300,000 home. The tax is a little higher than 1% for higher priced homes and less than 1% for those lesser priced. There is no capital gains tax for primary residences when gains are less than $500,000. I understand in NY there is a tax on new mortgages similar to the NJ transfer tax, but NY also has other taxes. If you want to go bankrupt in the US, Florida is the best place to be. In NJ, the lenders will sue if you fail to pay a mortgage but they will have a difficult time collecting from you unless you have other assets. In any case once you default on a mortgage, your credit is ruined for up to 10 years. So will we have a 10 year recession if housing crashes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 This is the second day in a row that the futures closed above cash. This normaly signals a top of some duration. We shall see. it does in a bear market NOT in a bull market like we are in till the 4 year cycle tops in 2005. This IS bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stained jeans Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 This is the second day in a row that the futures closed above cash. This normaly signals a top of some duration. We shall see. it does in a bear market NOT in a bull market like we are in till the 4 year cycle tops in 2005. This IS bullish. BDK, So glad to have you aboard. I was beginning to worry that there was way too much bearish consensus on the B4 board. You have given me great hope that the end is nigh for the bulls. Keep up the good work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 Today Sirios and Killa joined us two Bullz it seems why here, why us , i have no idea. My bet is it is a contrarian indicator, B4. A day or two away from the top'd be my guess. Course I'm guessing you already knew that. very contrarian and sinne I will be short by Mid-May for a 2-3 month swing trade then I suggest you consider going long at that point - After that I'm long into and PAST the election into 2005. Everyone thinks 2005 will be bad...try 2006 I expect at least DOW 5000. TE, Curryman is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 This is the second day in a row that the futures closed above cash. This normaly signals a top of some duration. We shall see. it does in a bear market NOT in a bull market like we are in till the 4 year cycle tops in 2005. This IS bullish. BDK, So glad to have you aboard. I was beginning to worry that there was way too much bearish consensus on the B4 board. You have given me great hope that the end is nigh for the bulls. Keep up the good work. The end is nigh ..maybe 30 more trading days UP then a decline that will crap the pants off even the most bearish bears...BUT...we need **at least** a marginal new high **at a minimum** ironic redundancy - to have the bulls at maximum confidence. We are going back to 1164 however some bears better hope that we dont go past 1175 or we have take off ala blow off into a May top > 1200.. we will c as no 1 knows but thats my take, fade me and may the best man win - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stained jeans Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 we will c as no 1 knows but thats my take, fade me and may the best man win - Thank allah I got my education back when teachers cared... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 You confirm why so many bears who are so much more intelligent than the bulls, constantly see their trading accounts wiped out. Its kinda of like the 2nd grade educated tycoon who hires mostly Ivy league MBA's..he knows that they couldnt sell lemonade for a profit even if they got the lemons n sugar for free.... but they do make excellent anal cysts. Humility my friend l? l-liq?' ma'c'a sal?ma or greed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrecked him Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 You confirm why so many bears who are so much more intelligent than the bulls, constantly see their trading accounts wiped out. Its kinda of like the 2nd grade educated tycoon who hires mostly Ivy league MBA's..he knows that they couldnt sell lemonade for a profit even if they got the lemons n sugar for free.... but they do make excellent anal cysts. Humility my friend l? l-liq?' ma'c'a sal?ma or greed The Secret Life of a Bear I am a bear. I was born a bear and regardless of what the evangelical right tells me, I will always be a bear. But sometimes when I am in the office I'll see a cute bull pass by and I think to myself that maybe I could be a bull. You know, with a little therapy and psychological support, I could REALLY be a bull. A fully functioning member of the bull society. With a house and car and all. I could have a relationship with a bull and do all the bull stuff: like consuming lots of stuff I don't need, and getting into mo mo stocks at their highs. But the bear side calls me. Those wicked bear bars and leather excite me so. Oh, what a thrill it is to be a bear. But when you are raised in a bull society with bull friends, attending bull schools, it's really hard to be a bear. Wishing that you could just short stocks without restraint and open yourself up to the bear lifestyle. Hang on a minute. "Yes Madame WH I'm composing a post. What do you mean I'm on the wrong message board.? ......." Ah..... Ooops, so sorry, Ah, please carry on with whatever you guys were discussing. I'm just gonna pop on over to another message board I occasionally happen to post in. I mean I don't visit it often. I mean that I just post occasionally and would never consider that kind of lifestyle. I mean....well you know what I mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stained jeans Posted April 4, 2004 Report Share Posted April 4, 2004 You confirm why so many bears who are so much more intelligent than the bulls, constantly see their trading accounts wiped out. I'm not the best trader on this board by any means but my account is up 27% versus the S&P 500 since January 2000. That's after commissions. I won't get rich on that but I'll take it over where 99% of the bulls are. By the way, I was 100% invested in stocks through most of the late 1990s even though I knew, unlike 99% of bulls, that we were in the midst of an historic stock mania -- one that won't end until the S&P is below 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.