midnite lightning Posted December 4, 2002 Report Share Posted December 4, 2002 Hey Mark! Excellent post, welcome back! Nice to see you have the old spirit back. The time off did you well. Love this market action. Time for the south bound train to hell for a few days. You can tell it is time for some serious spanking. They brought out mr. potato head this morning on procto, bob froehlick. I just can?t help it but I just want to reach in and rip his ears off. It seems every time they bring him out, the market is in trouble. Don?t know how long this will last. The weekly indicators still haven?t turned. It should be soon. Can they keep it up till Christmas? I guess we will see. Still sitting short and will continue. Major Piles, Great posts, keep up the great work. You link master you. You must be the missing link:-) Bloodhound, Great job, I sense that you smell something bad. There you go, bloodhound alert! Kind of like that first alert business. Always a treat to read your posts! Now if we could find the pig roaster, mercy man, we really would be smoking. Ah, he is just sitting on the beach wearing some dark sunglasses looking at those thongs. Can?t say I blame him. Enjoy it you pig roaster you! CYA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted December 4, 2002 Report Share Posted December 4, 2002 oh, this sort of legislation is, perhaps, inevitable, given the wanton and craven nature of the big boyz and their profligate ways of the past quarter century. Maybe they'll get what they want, too, tho their FURst run at it, namely, bankruptcy, ain't doin' too gud....FUR the time being, anyhoo. HRFF hASS long wondered if we all couldn't one day, wake up and FURgive each UDDER all our debts and PRETEND IT NEVER HAPPENED, like this alleged legislation appears to try to do. Somehow, some way, The BARE just finds it difficult to conceive that these morons could institute/deploy 74 TRILLION $ worth of these things and, somehow, escape the negative consequences if they (derivatives)went HAYWIRE by the mere enactment of exculpatory legislation. Now the world is FUR too wicked a place and maybe they can pull that off. Maybe. But HRFF doubts it. He thinks there will be some spectacular, UNANTICIPATED detonation that will bring the wrath of the mASSES down upon the heads of these bonkers and financial miss-engineers and they will be hounded tirelessly by the wounded hoi poloi ass a result. But maybe, in their infinite brilliance, they have constructed these instruments so cleverly nothing will go AWRY in a BIG way and they can put in their FIX when things get dicey. Collusion isn't working very well. Just look at the febrile attempts to rescue Wall St with repeated injections of hair of the DAWG, such as rate cuts. A quarter (or is it a half?) century of good luck engenders boundless hubris in mortals. Not to mention linear expectations through behavioral conditioning. Nor a penchant for excess, so manifest in the awesome "ramping/gearing" of these derivatives. Again, HRFF invokes the Van Morrison lyric: We're, ALL of us, "real, real gone". It, our prospective collective (pun intended?) future is a daunting prospect, really, to contemplate. As Richard Shelby said 'long' ago (tho he was addressing the gathering deflation evident even then a la 1995): "the sky is shaking". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted December 4, 2002 Report Share Posted December 4, 2002 Midnight Man- Always, always a pleasure to hear from an informed brother- Assmaster-you are NEW-but seem savvy! I don't disagree with your scenario-but it's too early to tell-for now short the hell out of it-this week should be down-if you try to anticipate the market-it will pulverize you. If this is what you want to do with your life go with the flow -leave your emotions out of it! Trade safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 4, 2002 Report Share Posted December 4, 2002 Just looking at the cycle tops and bottoms on Doc's charts, one things troubles me. ?If you notice during the multiple cycle down phases, the cycle tops have been very close in time to the preceeding cycle bottom. ? And in the multiple cycle up phases, the cycle tops are closer to the next bottom than the previous bottom. ?And the most recent cycle has the top much, much closer to the future low than the previous low. ?Does this mean we are in a multiple cycle uptrend? I don't really know what it means, but I do find it rather disturbing. ?Is it possible that we do a mini-correction to suck in shorts and then maybe go to semi-significant new highs into Xmas before the plug gets pulled. ?This bails out Joe sixpack, the pension plans, the mufu guys, screws the shorts and the gold bugs - what a nice present for the powers that be! I conjecture that they might set this up to get bears max short, dippers to buy then take it higher again, then the ball begins bouncing downstairs again. Bull markets = 9 mos up, 3 mos down Bear market = 3 mos up, 9 mos down One more month to go, then the same goes in reverse to sheer the sheep before the buying opportunity of the next 4 years. ? Just figuring out what would screw the most people and would leave everyone too scared to try to buy the bottom. ?It will be very volatile, very whacky. ?They've taken the dumb money, now it's time to take the smart money too. And remember, I'm a damned software engineer so don't take anything I say too seriously! AssMaster, That has been my take as well. As I have mentioned numerous times, I want to do a massive short on QLGC, using it as a proxy for the Naz. I have wanted to short QLGC above 46 because on that stock's particular chart, to me, it represents a price area above the channel it has been in for many months and I would feel like that is the minimum price in the area near what I think will be the top for techs before the big drop next year. I too feel there is a lot at stake for the "Powers That Be" through to the end of the year. Maybe I want to read into Doc's Charts and scenarios what I want to read but, I have felt for the last month or so he has always said there is more than one way to take the chart action and caution should rule choices. I agree that a mini-correction followed by a new high would preserve the political and monitary interest of the "Powers that Be" at the expense of the Bears who are considered un-american subversives by the "Powers That Be" anyway. After the year ends all bets are off because then there is plenty of time, a whole year, for the "Powers That Be" to rationalize the demoralizing mess the first and second quarters of 2003 are going to be for Joe, Jane and any other shorn sheep who buy into this current scam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted December 4, 2002 Report Share Posted December 4, 2002 I am thinking of buying one tranche of BEARX on every wave that tops out higher than the last one, and buying a bunch of crappy 1 dollar tech stocks at every cycle bottom lower than the last cycle low. Sell the crap near the top to buy more BEARX! Or maybe some LEAP index puts. Then I can go find a damned job instead of watching the market all day. However, I don't really trust my sense of timing, which is (of course) why I'm a subscriber now. Mousey Dung: Love the nick and Avatar! And sounds like a good plan. Neely's outline sounds about right, especially where it coincides with Doc! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted December 4, 2002 Report Share Posted December 4, 2002 welcome back mark. we missed M2M. good to see you in fine form. ikea keeping netherlands stores closed today after the discovery of several bombs. don't think it was tyler durden, either. ah....know we're headed down but would hate to have something awful be the catalyst. europe all down at open. nikkei fell 2% right to 9000. u.s. fucutures down slightly........although, of course, it's not quite 3:30 am EST yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted December 4, 2002 Report Share Posted December 4, 2002 TA guy from oystercatcher saying s&p & ftse have started wave 3....they actually showed a graph with an arrow straight down to spx 665 in mid-jan (damn they're more honest here. probably why their markets have fallen farther sooner). thinks financials will lead the way. also thinks euro/dollar could hit 1.08-1.10. pretty quiet here this time of night/morning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted December 4, 2002 Report Share Posted December 4, 2002 MARK A HOLIDAY AWAY FROM THE MADNESS IS A MUST REALLY LOOKING FORWARD TO LONG X MAS BREAK I thing this rally just might drag out past x mas Would like the VIX to go lower and break down below 25 - got very close at 26 but now 30. Yes the next big downer is soon. Having a few short postions out now on tech crap a good idea - just to get the nibbles on the fishing line - not really any upside left. Even tyco, AOL, IBM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torah man Posted December 4, 2002 Report Share Posted December 4, 2002 I wonder, is it too late to vote for a gap down this morning??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chibear Posted December 4, 2002 Report Share Posted December 4, 2002 Welcome back, Mark. From where you left, you didn't miss much. Actually there was more commotion among us stoolies than in the market. Suggest reading John Mauldin's latest e-letter at www.2000wave.com, "What the Fed Believes". If this fed governor speaks for the fed, they believe they have a ton of additional "bullets" to fire to avoid deflation, and are willing to use them, as a matter of policy, come what may. The object is to thwart deflation at all costs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slothrop Posted December 4, 2002 Report Share Posted December 4, 2002 A well-written piece, Mark. Nice work. Welcome back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest GTNWORSE Posted December 4, 2002 Report Share Posted December 4, 2002 Jraabe, I was wondering if Andrew Lais at Stock Charts got his sell signal today. I'm thinking not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 4, 2002 Report Share Posted December 4, 2002 AssMaster, don't worry or over-game the tape. I'll keep posting my VectorVest timing graphs periodically and at key saturation points. If you're just playing bull/bear funds then its pretty obvious how and when to ride the waves... VV BSR Just KISS. I'm all over BEARX now and will hold until BSR hits rock bottom again. Perhaps in March, too soon to tell and it really doesn't matter. We just witnessed yet another massive long lasting top for sure in the ongoing bear market from hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 4, 2002 Report Share Posted December 4, 2002 GTN, dude its over. Its over. Get on board on the next rally/pop. I've seen enough confirming evidence now that the top is a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 4, 2002 Report Share Posted December 4, 2002 this is why BEARX is much better than Rydex Arktos. http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/perf.html?BEARX,RYAIX Same reward, less of a spanking in rallys. Less slippage too. Holds PMs for a gold play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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